May 11 thoughts yet again (250th post)

For whatever reason, May has in many years been a "May be" month for me. And this year seems not much different. Uncertainties in life (which I am not going to touch upon much) and uncertainties in Indian politics - and at times I have felt that the latter is really critical in terms of deciding the fate of India - for 5 years.. ney, may be 50

Before I get into GE2014 again, let me repeat the significance of May 11 (reposting from my 2006 post) :

A)  1857, the first war of Indian independence, essentially started on May 9, and the Indian soldiers recaptured Delhi from the Brits on May 11 . here's something to read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Delhi_(1857) .

B)  1951 : On May 11 Dr Rajendra Prasad, the then President, performed the Prana Prathistha ceremony of a renovated Somnath Temple. And I so love to quote his words, year after year

"By rising from its ashes again, this temple of Somnath, is to say proclaiming to the world,that no man and no power in the world can destroy that for which people have boundless faith and love in their hearts..... Today our aim is not to rectify history, our only aim is to proclaim anew our attachment to the faith , convictions and values on which our religion has rested since immemorial ages"


(the quote can be found on http://blog.lkadvani.in/blog-in-english/no-full-stops-in-bjp though I read it elsewhere)

C) 1998 : The Pokhran II tests - started on May 11  ( Operation Shakti ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II  .  I am glad Narendra Modi tweeted about it this year http://news.oneindia.in/new-delhi/narendra-modi-addresses-twitterattis-on-pokhran-ii-s-16th-anniversary-1445371.html  

 All the three above, for me, are incidents of rejuvenation, and I am hoping, we will see a similar on May 16th

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A few more random items before I close this post

* In my last post, I predicted a 240 for BJP. Even up to a few weeks before that, I had predicted more like a 216.. so what exactly changed ? Well, a few things -  more and more ground reports from Tamil Nadu suggested a few potential seats for BJP there. Some thing seems to be happening in WB - I see lot of Modi talk amongst Bengalis in Bangalore, and Mamata going so all out against Modi tells me that BJP has gained critical mass.  Similarly the desperation shown by Congress and SP in UP to make hurdles for Modi, tells me that indeed there is quite a Modi impact there.. So putting all this together, I redid my min-max-average method, and I simply landed with a 240 . We will see how close or off I am, on May 16 :)  .. so thats another may be

* I have been hinting at my previous posts that Modi may not become PM - I was predicting more of a scenario of NDA (not BJP alone, but NDA) getting close to a 250 (something like a 210 for BJP and 40 for allies), and then some new potential allies insisting they will support NDA if its some one other than Modi as PM. Well, that is still a possibility, but what if NDA actually gets a clear majority - like my latest prediction of 285.. or even a 300 ? In such a situation too, I still see a 50-50 chance  of Modi not being a PM .. I some how feels that he has a grander plan in mind.. even in the Time Now interview, while answering a question of why he has gone all out in attacking the likes of Mamata and "burning bridges" with potential post-poll allies, Modi answered something to the effect of "it has a reason" and when Arnab says he did not quite understand, Modi simply says "understand as much as you can.. and the rest I will tell you after May 12". So is Modi waiting for the final vote to be casted (some repolling is due May 13, so may be after that) and drop a surprise announcement ? Did he meet RSS top brass on May 10 itself instead of waiting for May 13 or even a May 16, to start any discussions along this lines ? Deep within I feel that the meeting was not just about how to manage allies (in case NDA < 272) or who will succeed him in Gujarat, or about his potential cabinet -- I think there is something deeper happening.. we will know soon - till then thats " may be "

* What if Modi indeed becomes the PM ? who will be his ministers.. who will focus on the party - some say Rajnath, some say may be Amit Shah ..  And what if NDA ends up being in opposition after all... will Modi take up being Leader of opposition ? Too many " may be "

* Finally, this is my 250th post .. and May 17th also marks the completion of 9 years of this blog . In 3 years I had 200 posts, but in the next 2 years I had only 25 .. and then it took another 4 years for the next 25 !! So what will be the future of this blog .. Will I get back to a more frequent posting routine ? well, " may be " .

That is what the month of May is about  .. let May be !!

My final prediction for GE2014

Its 7pm IST on May 9th. One week from now, by this time, quite likely the fate of a 1.25 billion strong Nation may be decided. It is a strange feeling, and as the campaigning comes to an end tomorrow, it seems to have reached a high pitch.

As I started this series on GE2014, one of my initial posts (on 2013 Oct 16 to be exact) was my prediction of the numbers.   http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2013/10/can-numbers-add-up.html  . My method has been a "method of averages" and interestingly had predicted it fairly accurate for 2009 GE ( he he he .. where are the Sardesais and the Goswamys ??)  . In my Oct 16 post too, I had predicted based on my feeling at that time and some extrapolations.. I had at that time given a good chance for a potential BJP-AIADMK alliance and may be even a BJP-TMC. Both did not happen. I present here my feeling/prediction now that campaigning is almost coming to an end.

State	Tot	Min	Max	Avg	Allies
UP	80	40	60	50	1
Bihar	40	16	24	20	5
Guj+MP+Raj	80	68	76	72
Mah	48	14	22	18	12-16
Jhknd	14	8	12	10
Chtsgrh	11	6	10	8
Kar	28	12	18	15
AP	42	2	6	4	13-15
TN	39	1	3	2	3-5
Assm	14	2	6	4
Odisha	21	4	8	6
Del	7	3	7	5
Har	10	6	8	7	1
Pun	13	1	3	2	3-5
Uknd	5	3	5	4
HP	4	2	4	3
JK	6	0	2	1
Goa	2	0	2	1
WB	42	0	8	4
Kerala	20	0	0	0
Others	17	2	6	4	2
Total	543	190	290	240	40-50

Some interesting points to note:

1) One major difference has been that I seperated the BJP numbers from that of allies.

2)  Min-Max range in Oct prediction was 160-340 .. Now its 230-340 for NDA (average 285)

3) There is still a chance, however small, of BJP getting to the majority mark on its own

4) More likely chance I feel is BJP getting to 240 mark, provided UP story is true ! 

Those last minute 'stop-modi' efforts

As I pen this on Apr 26, still 20 days to go for the results, elections are over for 349 seats. They are yet to be done for 194 seats (about 36%) -  AP (42) , Gujarat (26) , UP (47), Bihar (20), WB (32), Punjab (13) and the rest (14)

In short, the battle is far from over. And interestingly enough, the stop-Modi efforts has only gotten stronger. Be it reported booth rigging in many places, deletion of voters names (in Maharashtra for example), the multi-level attack on Modi and Gujarat ( RSVP + the likes of Chidambaram et al and then the so called "intellectuals" and even college principals and the Dawood-funded bollywood) or the usual twists and turns that Media gives to news.

There are also reports of Minority consolidation, the kind that does the 'strategic voting' to defeat BJP . And then there are reports of the Congress hoping to bag about 140 seats (based on 'internal surveys' which are nothing but local congress committees claiming they will win this many seats) and tying up with "the others" to stop Modi


Can the BJP campaign managers and Modi withstand this onslaught ? I think they are trying their best, but what I am more worried is the potential complacency that the voter might fall into. Recently I heard a friend of mine, who would have voted for BJP, but did not succeed in getting the voter id, say "NDTV has predicted 275 seats for NDA. Cool".

If he had genuinely tried for the voter card, I do not blame him for not voting, but yet, what I am worried is the potential sit-back attitude that the pro-Modi camp may suffer from. Modi himself in a recent campaign speech spelt it out quite clearly - the elections that are over, has ensured that UPA will not come back to power, but the elections that remain will decide how strong an NDA will come to power.

That said, and hoping that Apr 30, May 7 and May 12 will see a renewed push to help BJP cross the 220, I want to go back to the latest NDTV opinion poll and poke a few holes. The table below is from http://www.ndtv.com/elections/live-blog/show/ndtv-s-opinion-poll-latest-all-india-forecast-508454

Note that somehow Shivsena's predicted 15 seats (and hence NDA 37 out of 48 in Maharashtra) did not get added to the chart, so make that correction. Now, I want to point out a few interesting facts


1) In Mar opinion poll, NDTV had given BJP 20 seats in Karnataka... In April they have dropped it to 12 .. It looks like they saw some other opinion polls and realized that what they have predicted is way outside the trends others had predicted and made the correction.. So which one is the genuine one and which one is the intentional error ?


2) But in spite of that reduction of 8, the BJP tally itself has been predicted to increase from 212 or so to 226 between Mar and April... and this despite hardly any change in prediction for UP and Bihar.. It looks like these have been "readjusted" elsewhere..


Frankly, it appears as some sort of cook up, just to show that NDA is crossing the 272 mark - why would that be ? Either to claim that we were the only channel which predicted a 272+ (and in the event of an NDA closer to 230, they can always fall back to their Mar opinion poll !). Or, I suspect that Congress funded this to create a false impression that all that is needed is done, and the BJP worker can now relax..


Some of the numbers look too good to be true to me.. For example, NDA bagging 37 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra.. (BJP to win 19 out of 24 seats that it will contest). 7 seats in Orissa for BJP ?! 12 seats in Jharkhand ? Indeed the 50+ in UP is also a number that one will have to cross his fingers about. In seemandhra its predicting 3 seats for BJP, but its contesting itself only in 3 seats.. a 100% winnability ?!


There are however a few states where I tend to believe that the numbers for NDA may be slightly better than what is predicted in the chart. TN for example, predicts 0 for BJP.. ground reports and reports in Tamil media suggest BJP may bag Kanyakumari and Coimbatore .. I also have my fingers crossed about Thiruvananthapuram. In Karnataka too, I am hoping that the 12 moves up to a 15 at least..


But these ones and twos will not be much of a compensation for any major slip down from the predicted numbers in any other state.. For example if UP NDA tally goes closer to 40.. or if Bihar tally goes below 20 or the Maharashtra tally goes below 30, it will bad time for NDA. In fact this election is still such a cliff hanger that bad news from any one of these high-hope states can upset the NDA chances.  And in this context, one can understand why the anti-Modi crowd is trying every game in the book and has not given up yet

Personally I am still willing to bet only 250 seats for NDA ( 212 for BJP and 38 for allies) in the current scenario. But a smart handling of the remaining contest, and rising up of the voters above petty considerations and voting for a stable NDA govt, might see the BJP cross the Tsunami mark of 230.. who knows ? I wish them a 232 !! 

Joy of my first vote

April 17 it was ! I had been to Kerala on a 5 day 'vacation' and was just back that day in Bengaluru , where I had finally enrolled myself into the voters list and got my voter's id..

I use the word 'finally' with two intentions - first, though I had followed politics in India for close to 25 years now, I had never added myself to the voters list till now or had the ID, leave alone actually exercising that right. I was at IIT Chennai in 1998 and 99 and 19/20 yrs old when the General elections were held, but some how there was no idea that I could register as a voter in Chennai - even if I had, South Chennai perhaps did not even field a BJP candidate.Registering in Kerala would not have helped my cause much either as most likely the elections would have been held on a working day for me at IITM and I would not have traveled all the way to Kerala to potentially vote for a party that would not even fetch 10% of the vote share.

I left India for higher studies in 2001 and was back in 2008, so naturally did not have a chance in 2004. I do remember the day though, when in the US time morning after the India time morning when results were announced, I had woken up, and at the earliest checked the result, only to be semi-shocked to see that NDA did not make it a second time. Unlike those who believe that "India Shining" campaign was what caused a surprise defeat for NDA, I have always attributed two main factors - one, that Vajpayee had started becoming increasingly ill, and had started giving out the impression that he wasn't fully in control and yet BJP did not specify a clear succession plan. Two, a complacency that had crept in BJP rank and file. While the 2004 "coldness" among BJP volunteers were more due to "we will anyway win" false feeling, the 2009 was about "we are not going to make it" - and that was exactly what I had thought too and hence not opted for a voter id in 2009, even though I was very much in India. I was in Chennai, and BJP did not even have an alliance.. it had given up even before the actual polls (please read my initial posts under the label GE2014 for a more detailed view on this)

The second sense that I use the word "finally" is related to my efforts to secure a voter ID in Bengaluru, where I have been staying since 2012 . In 2013, there were the Karnataka state elections, and there was a campaign at my work place to apply for voter id and/or registration of the name. The application has to be filled and submitted online, the print out along with proof of residence (like a rental agreement) had to be put in a drop box in office - quite an easy process. In fact my intention to apply was more keeping in mind the 2014 general elections as I may not have anyway voted in the 2013 Karnataka assembly elections even if I had received my ID. However my application from March of 2013 did not come through even after a year. The online status simply showed "field verification completed".

I called up the CEO office and I was told that if it didn't come through in a few months, it ain't gonna come through and go and apply in the local ward office. Mar 16 or so was the last date, and I think I submitted an application around Mar 10 or so.. and on April 5, I had the card collected from the same ward office. Some times all the "online stuff" aren't quite as useful in India as of yet as it turned out in this case of my applying for the voter ID and name registration. Indeed, I did check online though that my name has been added to the list, which it was, and I also got the info of my polling booth and so on.

And finally, Apr 17, I voted for the first time in my life.. and that was for BJP, or shall I say Narendra Modi.. or perhaps I should say, for "India First". To me at least in the current scenario, all the three are the same.

The numbers that matter

It is interesting to see that most of the non-BJP campaigners (Congresswallahs, the likes of Sharad Pawar, the Yechuris and Karat, and of course AK49) have made it a habit these days to keep repeating "there is no Modi wave". I bet that even in their sleep they must be waking up with the Modi cry and checking their bed !

So then, what exactly are the criteria to determine whether there is  modi wave or not ? Here is my take - BJP (not NDA) won about 116 seats in 2009 . A 50% increase in that can be attributed to anti-incumbency against current govt - so that makes it 174, which is also close to the maximum BJP has won so far which is 182 (1998 and 1999). Anything more than that, I would say is a Modi effect. In fact I would say the following if BJP alone wins as below

Modi wave: 50% - 75% increase - i.e 175 to 203
Modi flood: 75%-100% more, i.e 204 - 232
Modi Tsunami: > 100% more... i.e anything more than 232

Note that even the current UPA (not Congress, but UPA) has only 231 seats, and the rest is outside support. So a single party reaching 232+ will be an amazing achievement given the current multi party scenario and deserves a Tsunami name. We will know on May 16 if there is no Modi effect or if it is a wave, flood or a Tsunami.

For now,  we will have to depend on opinion polls. I do not believe that these are fool proof - not so much because of fear of being rigged by one party or other, but simply because the electorate numbers are huuge ( 80 crore+ ?) and a complex mix, and a sample size in the tens of thousand range is too small . Yet, these numbers may give a small sense, and being a number-man, I like to analyze these, knowing quite well that to a good extend these are fictitious. So for whatever it is worth, here is the table for NDA (Not BJP alone) as perdicted in end-March.

Sources:

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/ndtv-opinion-poll-advantage-nda-game-changer-uttar-pradesh-504607?curl=1396715705  (gives NDA - 33% vote share and UPA 27% )

http://ibnlive.in.com/newstopics/election-tracker.html ( NDA - 38%, UPA - 28%)

CNN-IBN does not give projected seats for "smaller states", and for the bigger ones too it gives a range. I have taken the average of that range in such cases.The averages of states however may not add up to the average of the final number given to NDA. IBN numbers are mainly to see where it sort of matched the NDTV numbers and where it does not.

It is interesting to note that the two opinion polls have significant differences in some matters - for example IBN gives NDA a 10% vote more than UPA and NDTV gives only 6% more, and this despite the fact that IBN has not counted TDP as part of NDA where as NDTV has !  States with 4 or more seats difference in prediction are mentioned in the comments section (Note: NDTVs seemandhra+telengana almost match IBNs TDP =15). Inspite of all those differences, the number predicted for BJP alone (remember, for IBN, its an average of the 206-218 range) almost match for both these - somewhere around 212. That makes it fall into the Modi flood category !

When results are declared on May 16, will it indeed be in the flood region ? Will it slip back into the wave region, or can it get into the Tsunami region ? If it is indeed in the flood region, and as predicted, gets the NDA to the 255 mark, where will the extra 20 come from ? AIADMK ? TRS ? YSRC ? BJD and TMC have said they will not support NDA, but will that change if BJP agrees for a non-Modi PM ? Time alone can answer !!

State	Total	NDTV	CNN-IBN	Comment
Bihar	40	21	25	IBN +4
Assam	14	3
Chattisgarh	11	8
Delhi	7	4	4
Gujarat	26	22	23
Haryana	10	5
Jharkand	14	10
Karnataka	28	16	10	IBN -6
Kerala	20	0	0
MP	29	25	26
Mah	48	36	27	IBN -9
Orissa	21	0	5	IBN +5
Punjab	13	6
Rajasthan	25	21	23
Seemandhra	25	14	0	IBN No TDP
TN	39	3	8	IBN +5
Telengana	17	2	0	IBN No TDP
UP	80	53	46	IBN -7
WB	42	0
Others	34	10
Total	543	259	240	IBN-TDP=15
BJP alone		214	212

BJP - short and medium term goals

This is kind of a speculative post and some random thoughts based on current fast changing political moves. In summary, it is becoming more and more clear that NaMo has a long term plan for BJP and India - atleast 10 yrs

* Quite a lot has been said already about Narendra Modi contesting from Varanasi - that the BJP wants to gain maximum seats from eastern UP and western Bihar. Quite possible and nothing wrong in it, but what many of this media analysis has missed is Modi's agenda for India beyond just the BJP winning seats. Remember the BIMARU states. Madhya Pradesh under Chouhan has tremendously progressed since. Rajasthan is back with BJP and this time around Vasundhara seems to drive a development agenda. The states formed out of the BIMARU - Chattisgarh is picking up and with Raman Singh's ambitious Raipur development agenda, it is bound to pick up faster. Once Bihar got rid of Lalu from power, it had started signs of coming out of the dark ages, but not at a pace matching with what it is capable of. Unfortunately UP has been the least changed and that is where Modi is hoping to make a difference. He realizes that if a strong India has to be built up, UP has to be "cleaned up", including the Ganga !

* So the plan will be to get maximum MPs for BJP , do good work for 3 years through them and then try to gain back power in the state in Mar 2017 elections. Kalyan Singh would be 85 yrs old by then, so it will be interesting to see who the State Leader would be. 3 years is quite a lot of time to see who will emerge

* Delhi seems another interesting case - with Dr HarshVardhan moving to Loksabha, it will be interesting to see who BJP's chief minister candidate will be. Most likely Delhi elections will be later this year. Social media is full of speculation that it may be Kiran Bedi - we will have to wait and see .

* In Uttarakhand too, former CMs of BJP are contesting for LS . It is likely that for the 2017 elections, BJP may want younger leaders to emerge and be the CM candidate

In short, there seems to be an underlying strategy that Modi is adopting, slowly but steadily - to usher in fresh blood at the state level, and move some of the experienced to the Lok Sabha

* What about Rajya Sabha ? With Jaitley moving to LS, BJP will need a good orator in RS . Well, frankly , the party doesn't need a mass leader - Jaitley never was one - but needs more of an intellectual there. Moreover many of the current Congress leaders in LS may end up running away from or losing this LS elections and end up being nominated to RS - BJP needs a sharp person to take them on in RS. My own feeling is that Subramaniam Swamy may fill that place in. Though Swamy is popular among Tweeples and in intellectual circles, he may not be popular enough among the common man to be able to win from an LS seat, say in Delhi, where his supporters wanted him

* What about states with weak BJP presence ? BJP will want a TDP government in Seemandhra and in turn getting TDP support for NDA. Similarly a TRS govt in Telengana and support for NDA. Both seem reasonably likely. If these alliances can be continued in the ShivSena model - where BJP continues to play junior partner but neverthless has a significant clout on its own as well - it will be long term beneficial for the party's South India influence. For TN , Modi for now may want to test the waters with the non-conventional (for BJP) alliance that it has built up , see the result and then decide on a future strategy for long term growth of the BJP. In many other places like Kerala, Assam, Bengal, Odisha, NE , the BJP is going alone, hoping to get as many votes as possible (and in some cases a few seats) and then build on that for future.

* Finally, what about the overall National plan. I still strongly feel that NDA may end up with a 240-250 this time, take outside support from parties that would want some one other than Modi as PM, which in reality will be a blessing in disguise if NaMo decided to dedicate his time to build up the party along the lines that I have mentioned above, while continuing to be the Gujarat CM till 2017 December when elections are due. He could take up the mantle of PMship in 2018 (he will be 67 then), preparing the party with a much bigger base for 2019 election (or a snap poll if any of the NDA allies pull out and make it fall), continue to be PM till 2024 (he will be 73) and retire

This is not to suggest that BJP should give up mission 272+ . Keep trying, but know that other possibilities exist as well


 

Why Tamil Nadu will be most exciting for me to watch in GE2014

As I was browsing news on a Friday night, I happened to hit upon this piece http://www.firstpost.com/politics/alagiri-meets-rajnath-offers-support-to-bjp-in-tamil-nadu-1434891.html . Interestingly it in the morning I had seen another news bit http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/alagiri-meets-rajinikanth-denies-discussing-politics/1/349548.html . For a moment I had thought that the firstpost news was the same as I saw in the morning, so much for the Rajnath Rajinikanth closeness in names. When I looked carefully, I saw that Alagiri has actually offered support to the BJP . This is another twist in the already interesting Tamil Nadu battle for Loksabha 2014

With the political scenario fast changing, it is yet to say that the alliances are final in Tamil Nadu, but for now it appears that it will be AIADMK vs BJP-MDMK-PMK-DMDK vs DMK - three cornered. There is indeed the Congress , Communists, Chaoists (you know who), but as long as they stand alone without an alliance, they are most likely to lose their deposit. In fact there are some smaller parties also in the rainbow alliance that BJP has knitted in Tamil Nadu. The seat sharing is not yet final and official, Tamil Nadu goes to poll on Apr 24 (ref: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok-sabha-elections-2014-all-the-dates-that-you-need-to-know-1420021.html ) so it should be out in a week or so. Deep within, this seems to be the state that I am most curious about. Read on

First and foremost, it is a state where BJP has nothing much to lose. So it is more or less tension free to follow it. In fact I am even interestingly watching how the alliance will split the seats - with DMDK demanding 14 or so, MDMK and PMK perhaps asking for close to 10 each, BJP will be left with just 5. So is it worth the effort for BJP ?

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tamil_Nadu_Lok_Sabha_results_chart.png

I think the following factors may have weighed in - on the one hand, Jayalalitha - known as a friend of Modi even when Modi was at the peak of his being criticised - and AIADMK in spite of being seen as a potential NDA post-polls seemed to be in no mood to have a pre-poll alliance.  It must have been futile for BJP to try. Though perhaps a good number of AIADMK volunteers and supporters themselves may have been in support of a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, Jayalalitha wants to get the maximum seats on her own to be an important player in the center, if not a PM candidate herself. BJP naturally did not want an alliance with DMK which is on the down-graph and also immersed in corruption. It is here that the rainbow alliance idea seems to have kicked and here is what BJP would gain

1) Unlike a case where BJP may have been a junior partnet to a big party like AIADMK and there by not able to assess its own strength and grow alliance with smaller parties will actually help it to grow, if properly dealt with.

2) How much ever Jaya is friends with Modi, in politics there are no permanent allies. So while keeping the post poll alliance with Jaya still a possibility, BJP through its pre-alliance also is perhaps hoping to try to get as many seats as possible so that Jaya doesn't end up with a 35 kind of number and making her a real big player. Jaya with a 25 will much more easier for BJP to handle. This is not to say that BJP will be happy to covertly help DMK bag the rest of the 14. On the contrary it will be trying its best to have this pre-poll alliance bag atleast 10 of that 14

3) A third factor, which actually may have been the most dominant is Modi's general line of thought in this election - Congress Mukt Bharat . Imagine if it were Congress who had come up with an alliance like this, it would have still kept the party alive in the state. By taking along all these parties, Modi has almost ensured that the Congress party is decimated in the state - in fact its leaders like Chidambaram, Jayanthi Natarajan et al are running away from even contesting http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-leaders-opting-out-lok-sabha-polls-chidambaram-natarajan/1/349430.html . DMK-Congress alliance is still a possibility though such a move will mostly hurt the DMK more.

4) The only times BJP won seats in TN were in 1998 in alliance with AIADMK and 1999 in alliance with DMK. In 1998 it got to contest 5 seats of which it won 3. In 1999 the numbers were 6 and 4 respectively. Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Trichy were won both times by BJP and in 1999 there was additionally Nagercoil. In 1998 it came second in Chennai South and Nagercoil, while in 1999, it came second in Sivaganga and Tenkasi. That adds up to 3 (won twice) + 1 (won once, second once) + 3 (second once) = 7 seats. Even if it gets to contest that many in the ranbow alliance this time, it is more than what they got to contest in 1998 and 1999 , so its still a gain in that sense. How many of these will finally be won will be interesting to watch. Interestingly both MDMK and PMK were part of the BJP alliance in 1998 and 1999, but the "main party" - AIADMK and DMK respectively are not this time ! 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu,_1998
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu,_1999

InterestinglyMDMK-PMK were in DMK alliance in 2004 (alliance swept all 39 seats) and in AIADMK alliance in 2009 (alliance got 12 seats) , and this will be the first time they are going outside AIADMK/DMK, so it will be much more of a do-or-die battle for them as compared to the BJP

So put that all together and it looks like the BJP strategy could range anywhere from "not bad" to "brilliant" - we will know on May 16 !

post script: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/specials/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/TRS-turns-to-BJP-after-trouble-in-alliance-talks-with-Congress/articleshow/31959608.cms?intenttarget=no If BJP seals a pre-poll alliance with TRS in Telengana and TDP in seemandhra, it will almost ensure a 272+ for NDA.. well almost !

BJP and Indian politics - transforming each other

Year 1989 was an exciting year for me - we moved into a new house and I also started following Indian politics as a boy, old enough to understand the basics. I think I still quite vividly remember how I found a small pamphlet in the local language, that was perhaps distributed along with the  newspaper, talking about Ram Janmabhoomi movement. I can't recollect if it was under a BJP banner or an RSS or any of its offshoots, but I do remember sitting in a chair in the front portion of the house and reading it in one stretch .. and then rereading it

It must have been the moment when one more of the many thousands or lakhs from "my generation" was being transformed into a "right-wing India Nationalist" . And that was to stay and grow,  so far for 25 long years.

Over the years, I read much more on Ayodhya dispute, was more than convinced that injustice has been done to the Hindus, felt glad that at least one political party in India had taken up the cause. Interestingly however, I realized that it was not the only issue that BJP had stood for - over the years, there were many more issues that I learned about - be it Kashmir and article 370, be it Uniform Civil Code or be it corruption in Congress party, minority appeasement and so on. It may be right to say that I learned the basics of Indian politics "through" BJP
 

photo taken from: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/india-39-main-opposition-party-debates-scrapping-income-075709649--sector.html#DtJhfxK 

 For a moment, think about the circumstances under which it was born - Indian politics dominated by Congress, essentially the Nehru family. A Nation unable to break away from the shackles of a misguided socialist model. Corruption already creeping into politics, and so also factors like caste and regionalism. When BJP began its journey, it did not project any of these as the main issue - what was projected was hindutva - and it was perceived as a male dominated, North-Indian hindutva party. 25-30 years later one sees what appears to be a different BJP - development oriented, with quite a good women representation, and continuing to appeal to the Youth of that generation. Has the party drastically changed or has it been a slow transformation ?

Here is how I look at it - the core of the party hasn't changed. Well, one might ask hasn't hindutva, Ayodhya and so on been kept in the back ? Having seen the party for 25 years, I think the core of the party - the part which remains unchanged - is Nationalism - to put it in a more popular phrase these days "India First". Take any issue, the ideal stand that BJP would like to take is driven by just this little policy - India First. Be it Kashmir or Uniform Civil Code or economic policies and so on. What has changed over the years however, are the manifestations of this "India First" core - things that the party wanted at different point in time to be its image.

In the late 80s and early 90s it was Ayodhya and Hindutva as the party believed that for India to be stronger, its majority, the Hindus, have to unite above caste and regional barriers. In the late 90s and early 2000, the party projected itself as a credible alternative to Congress party at the National level and a party ready to rule at the Center, and not just sit in opposition. The decade of 2004-2014 at the surface appears to be a dull period for the party, but look carefully, the party has been transforming its image to one that is highly development oriented, and able to govern key states with great leadership skills. In fact the last of the factors - transforming itself from a party known more for its National politics, to one that has been capable of giving strong state governments, has been an amazing one. It did appear to fumble a bit in the early 2000 period  - with Keshubhai Patel changed in Gujarat, Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur changed in Madhya Pradesh - but once it reached a 'steady state', we saw them win the states for a third time in Gujarat, MP and Chattisgarh. Even in states where it alternately seems to lose power, it seems to be losing by a small margin ( Rajasthan in 2008, Uttarakhand in 2012, Goa in 2007) and winning by a big to huge margin ( Rajasthan in 2013, Uttarakhand in 2007, Goa in 2012 )

 http://deshgujarat.com/2013/08/11/an-audacious-attempt-to-project-bjp-as-an-option-in-anti-congress-wave-gripped-andhra/ (Hyderabad rally)

One also sees the emergence of a new generation of leaders from within, without really shaking up the older generation as much as media and many others have always predicted it to be. The first generation - the Atal, Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi types - perhaps were much more "idealists", and the newer generation, one might say is perhaps much more practical. But at the ideology level ( yet again, "India First") I do not see much has changed. The youth appeal - may have temporarily taken a beating in the mid of last decade, but it seems to be back, though in a different form ( with quite a dominance in social media for example) . It may still not be a fully women-supported or minority supported party, but sure enough there has been significant transformations in those areas as well . South India was considered never "reachable" for BJP, it did rule Karnataka and is making gains in AP/TN

Along with its own transformation, though keeping the core intact, it indeed changed Indian politics itself. Congress has remained the centrist party (in my opinion, the party without much of strong policies, and hence the never die party because a good number of India people are like the "I do not want to think too much types") . Parties have come and gone and still keep coming up to occupy the left-of-center space, and by that I mean most regional, caste based parties as well, because for me, right of center is "India First" and any regional or caste base party beats that purpose and hence is naturally the wrong side of center. BJP has remained the only genuine "right" of center party

This is not to say that all has been good with BJP. As a supporter, one always wish it had done better. Though corruption during the NDA regime has been almost neglogible and corruption within the party itself has been quite low except in certain regions for a certain amount of time, the well-wisher always wants to see it completely clean. One cannot blame a Kerala volunteer, unhappy that even after 34 years of existence, BJP couldn't still win even an assembly seat. True, miles to go still, but overall I would say, the party has reasonably well. And I sincerely believe that just like the few fumbles that it had initially in managing state governments was immediately transformed into lessons learned, the next time BJP (or NDA) gets to power in center, will be an even better govt than before

And now it is at the threshold of yet another National election. Though expected to do well, the battle ground has become much more vicious. TV channels "generating" tweets that it assign to senior BJP leaders to show that there is infighting, self-proclaimed "honest" new entrants chanting  lies and distorted facts non-stop and the media giving non-stop coverage for that, the Congress party always on the look out for its "dirty tricks". The BJP leadership and volunteers has so far done okay and now with a month to two left for various phases of the poll, it is entering the key time - it is the time to wrap up the candidate selection, step up the door to door, make sure no big blunders are committed and to go the extra mile to be prepared to counter any further attack from the other parties. As a long term follower, I sincerely hope that Bharat Mata will bless the party whose very existence is to serve HER

Religions in Kerala and BJP chances

See this as a reference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Kerala . Interesting to notice that though the Hindu population in 2001 was abt 56% and Muslim 24% , with "children below 6" figures for these two religions being already (in 2001 itself) closer to 50% for Hindus and 31% for Muslims, and given that the "children born per woman" rate is almost twice for Muslims as compared to Hindus, it is quite clear that Kerala will, in a matter of few generations, become a Muslim majority state .  Already 2 of the 14 districts are Muslim majority (one with ~80%)

Anyways, just saw a news item that BJP has declared its candidates for Kerala http://www.mathrubhumi.com/story.php?id=431287 . Not sure if its official yet, but assuming so, here is some quick "fightable" seats

1) With Syrian Christians almost 50% in Pathanamthitta looks like BJP is eyeing that by fielding http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alphons_Kannanthanam (a Syrian christian, IAS, was once independent MLA with Communist support) and wooing Christians http://www.firstpost.com/politics/the-parrikar-model-why-modi-is-reaching-out-to-keralas-syrian-christians-1382099.html  . Well, BJP has 'nothing to lose' .. but then I guess both UDF and LDF too will field candidates from the same community and then it will be interesting to watch

The other districts with the Syrian christian community in significant numbers are Kottayam, Idukki and Thrissur in that order, but I guess unless BJP fields a person from that community, they will not get much votes from Syrian Christians. In fact the whole point of suppporting - or making it so appear - Alphons, may be to ensure some sort of representation, in case NDA gets to power.. well, yet again, BJP has 'nothing to lose'.


2)  Thiruvananthapuram - fielding Rajagopal,  BJP must be hoping to improve on its 2004 performance, where CPI won with 37.45% , congress came second with 30.30 and BJP a 'close third' with 29.86 . Ezhava/SC leaders have shared stage to Narendra Modi, but its not clear if that would be a factor.  If either Congress or CPI decide to "sell some votes" to the other side to make sure BJP doesn't open its account in Kerala, it will be tough for the BJP. It is more likely that Congress will sell it to CPI as their sitting MP Shashi Tharoor is likely to migrate outside kerala, and this is one of the few seats that CPI is offered by its big brother CPM and they would not want to lose it

3) Kasargode -I guess won always by CPM since 1989 ..   In 2009 BJPs vote share was just one-third of the winning candidates http://keralaassembly.org/lok/sabha/poll_results.php4?year=2009&no=1 ..  and this is perhaps the third most 'hopeful' constituency for BJP in Kerala !

So that more or less shows the situation that BJP is in Kerala.. At best 2 likely seats, and I see the chances of that at 10%, and chances of winning at least 1 seat, at 25% . Yet, I think this election will be for BJP to assert itself.. that it is still a force - however small - in Kerala, and to show that the cadre is solidly behind Modi. 

Why Delhi is India and Why it is not

In couple of my previous posts, I had mentioned a thing or two about Aam Admi Party ( and they turned out to be true as well, with Arvind Kejriwal himself admitting that he is an anarchist ) more as a tailpiece. In contrast, in this post, I start of with that topic, not so much because of its significance, but its dishonesty that pains any patriot

I have followed politics in India from around 1989 or so - thats right, it has been quarter a century. Interestingly, the year 1989 saw couple of incidents that perhaps dramatically changed the course of India, unfortunately in the negative direction. One, V P Singh became the Prime Minister. Two, the Rubaiya Sayeed kidnapping ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_kidnapping_of_Rubaiya_Sayeed ) . The second one - I personally have no doubts - was a drama, with the the Father of the kidnapped - Mufti Sayeed - himself involved, and perhaps even VP Singh. To quote wikipedia, "The kidnapping set the stage for heightened militancy in the state. Many say the abduction was the watershed in the Kashmir insurgency. Releasing the militants was nothing short of a blunder"

Let me now for a moment shift the focus to VP Singh, the man who essentially made it all happen. It was more or less a "dramatic" agenda on which he stormed to power - Mandal Commission recommended reservations. Debates on the reservation policy and its impacts apart, the man was a disaster as PM of India. Unfortunately, the trend that he started, produced a few more such "instant PMs" - Chandrashekar, DevaGowda and Gujral - all big failures. Arvind Kejriwal, unfortunately looks more dangerous that all of them ! He has shown that he can go to any extend to misuse the tax payers money (eg: the water subsidy, electricity subsidy) for personal gains of his (i.e Loksabha ambitions). He has shown over and over that he can tell lies of any extend to hypnotize people. He has shown that he simply doesn't care for Delhi that he was CM for 49 days, just cares about his personal ambitions. And worst, he has in his team, a bunch of extreme anti-Nationals, well, actually, under the mask, Arvind is the master

So, what does that leave us with ? After the 49 day drama, and realizing that he is fast losing time to create the anarchy at the National level, the jackal that he is , created a new drama to wash his hands off Delhi and aim for the bigger selfish ambition.  Interestingly, the same fellow whose party criticized the media of being paid by Modi, comes on at least 3 English Channels the day after he resigns. It is clear that Arvind has had at least 10 years of training (leave it to you to judge where all that training would have been) to be a shameless politician. And my best guess is that he is crying fowl about gas prices and Ambanis (interestingly VP Singh too had a tussle with Ambanis I suppose) because that is probably one of the big unrealistic promises that he will float for Loksabha elections - to perhaps make the fuel (petrol, diesel, LPG, CNG etc) prices to half... don't we see the pattern from Delhi ?

But then, I hope that the following points will make it difficult for Kejriwal -
0) A cheat will pay for his action, at some point for sure.. hopefully sooner than later .
1)  Indian voters have become smarter and more informed, especially the youth. Not to say that AAP will not grow in supprot - in a diverse country like India, there will always be people who "fall for the drama". But over all, the voting pattern in the last few years show a change.
2) Delhi was after almost a year of work as a formal party, and a couple of years of ground work as IAC, and yet AAP came second to a party (BJP) that was predicted to get only about 10 seats in opinion polls about 2 months before Delhi elections.. BJP delayed declaring HarshVardhan as CM candidate and it costed them. But at the National level, Modi has already covered a huuge ground, and still comes up with ideas like the chaipecharcha
3) Finally, the complexities of politics, especially in states with 3 or more "main parties" (like UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Haryana) can make it possible that AAP may actually eat more into the anti-BJP vote than BJPs

Having said that, Arvind's theatrics is still a threat to BJP, not so much because of his or his parties merits, but because of the inherent nature of BJP itself - a) It doesn't have significant presence in many Indian states still ; b) Being a Nationalist party, and as a party with leaders and followers who genuinely want to see India rise up as a great power, BJP will not go to the extend of making promises and doing theatrics that could damage India .

At this point, the NDA seems to be at a 220 mark.. Kejriwals theatrics could make it +20 , or may be -20 !  And what should BJP do ? Good candidate selection, a populist yet Nationalistic manifesto & tireless ground work

Can Modi, who has been the master at turning things around, make it 240 ? Interestingly, this is my 240th post !!

wishful thinking and thoughtful wishes

Note: This is also "Part2 of the bigger picture". See the GE2014 tag for all posts related to Elections 2014

Results if the two Nationwide opinion polls are out, see high level comparison at  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/BJP-poised-for-best-ever-tally-Narendra-Modi-set-to-be-PM-say-polls/articleshow/29322215.cms . I tend to believe more in the C-Voter poll at http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/modi-led-nda-all-set-to-topple-upa-india-today-poll/1/339408.html , so about 212 for current. NDA So where do things go from here ? Here are my imaginations

1) The best case scenario for BJP is if it can improve state by state on the predicted numbers. Let us take the C-voter 212 number itself..  UP @ 30 .. BJP cud get 10 more .. Bihar at 22 , let us say 5 more .. , MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/Jharkand has predicted 20 seats for non-BJP, lets say 5 more out of that .. another 5 more from Karnataka/Gujarat .. and 5 more from delhi/maharashtra etc .. that is 30 more, making it 242 ! So every seat counts for BJP ...

2) The second possibility is more pre-poll alliances... Vaiko/Ramadoss alliance in TN may not convert into too many seats... More important ones would be with AIADMK ( ~35 seats at stake), with TDP and TRS (~25 seats) with BJD (~15 seats), with TMC ( ~25 seats). Numbers in bracket is the possible seats that can be won by such alliance, including the BJP vote share. This is a total of 100 seats, even if two of this work out, NDA is through

3) For each of the above cases, if there is no pre-poll alliance with BJP, the numbers for the respective regional parties, my guess would be along the lines of 30 , 20, 10, 20 .. adding up to 80 .. A post-poll alliance with two of these could also help NDA cross the target.. It does look like the regional parties may not lose much by not tying up with BJP before elections - may be 5 seats at best.. and each of these regional parties, deep down will not want BJP to grow in their states...  BJP on the other hand, by making pre-poll alliances, may not gain too much either of its own numbers ... At best a 20 from all these states combined (the alliance partners seats continues to be theirs, be it pre-poll or post-poll alliance) .. Going by pre-poll alliance, BJP actually oses the chance of standing on its own and getting a feel for how much votes it can get, riding on the NaMo factor - and build on it for long term

4) Okay, so the NDA about 210 .. all these possible NDA future allies at about 90 , UPA at 100 ... those add up to 400 .. where is the rest 140 going ? Per C-Voter 30 for left, 25 for BSP, 20 for SP, 15 for YSR, 10 for AAP, 5 for DMK, another 5 pro-UPA parties .. thats about 110 , more likely to support UPA ..That makes it 210 for UPA... a possible switch over of TRS and TMC could make it about 250..   The rest 30 are independents plus really small parties - these could support either NDA or UPA, so UPA-3 cannot still be ruled out or even a 'third-front'

5) But my best bet at this point is that the NDA as it stands now will get about 220-230 by the election time, unless all these polls are under estimating the Namo factor and BJP really sweeps MP/Guajarat etc and get 50 in UP . And there is quite a likelihood that some potential allies may object to Modi. If it indeed happens, I think that is a golden chance for BJP - Namo can sacrifice his PM claim, and focus on building the party in all those states (like TN, like Orissa, like WB, Kerala) where there will be a new found surge in BJP votes. Who should be the BJP PM candidate then...  could be Advani, Sushma, Chouhan.... somehow my choice is Parikkar - for now.. lets discuss this later

6) Finally, what the the possible X-factors from now on ? There is still 80-90 days and a lot can change.. AAP may continue to come up with new drama scripts, big controversies could happen,.. alliances may change.. etc etc.. There could be more 'attacks' on Modi - Congress' dirty games department is known to do that.. there could even be an attempt on his life.. these are things not fully in BJP's hand. At this point, they can only keep working.. trying to convert the 30 in UP to a 50.. the 13 in Karnataka to a 20 .. open its account in Kerala.. and so on

part1 of the bigger picture

Having watched the second part of the CNN-IBN CSDS opinion poll, a bunch of quick points

0) The poll predicted that UDF will retain more or less the same number of seats (16 or so out of 20) as in 2009 due to a positive Oommen Chandya factor. I personally disagree - even in 2009, opinion polls before the elections, if I remember has predicted 8 for the then ruling LDF and 12 for the UDF .. in the end it went 4 vs 16 .. the tide is usually quite against the ruling party.. and so I think it will be more like 12-8 or even 14-6 in favor of LDF

BJP ? Well, as always, 2 - 3 seats it stands a small chance, tough, but let us see. I would rather not count on it. Karnataka too, it is quite likely that by the poll, it may actually be a 16-20 for BJP, but for now let us count 8

The point is, I  do not fully believe in the opinion polls, yet it is an interesting one to analyze as time pass ! So..

1)  TN was predicted to have 16% vote for BJP .. quite obviously the NaMo factor. If .. IF .. it is actually true thats quite a thing... (part of it may be the effect of Namo rally in Trichy...) . Even more interesting to me is big gain in Orissa where NaMo hasn't yet even had a rally. But the unfortunate part is that this may fizzle out, when people see that there is no critical mass... It will be interesting to see how Namo addresses this in the days to come.. pre-poll alliances with BJD and AIADMK may actually help the alliance sweep these states, but NaMo may actually be thinking of long term growth for the party..  Can his popularity be converted into the long term growth ?

2) The Congress seems to be helped by the pan-India presence again.. In spite of such a terrible UPA-2, local factors may see it actually gain a few seats in some states.. though it is indeed losing heavily elsewhere. will it cross 100 ?

3) In the next 2-3 days, predictions for the rest of the states will be out as well.. it looks like current NDA may end up with 200 plus/minus 20 .. Once again, it may be hardly accurate, but I think the message for BJP will be to work harder. These days there is usually a series of opinion polls.. and they predict a trend. for example for 2013  delhi assembly poll, BJP was initially predicted at third, then second, and then first.. Indeed it did end up first, but did not get the majority that some polls predicted.  It might have been an attempt by some to make some pro-BJP folks feel that "oh looks like BJP will win without me voting..."  and there by causing some bit of complacency.  This time around , with Congress possibly going to ban opinion polls after the elections are declared, let us see how it goes

4) Finally, at least for now it appears that at the National level BJP volunteers need to stay clear of distractions like AAP and focus on its ground work.. It appears that there are non-volunteer BJP supporters to take care of folks like AAP.  If volunteers can indeed reach the 10 crore households it is targetting (which unlike what the media makes out is not at all "aping AAP", but has been the good old RSS type strategy - gruhasamparkaH ) , that will be a game changer ( even Modi's National Vision can go only thus far... door to door campaigning is key)