May 11 thoughts yet again (250th post)


For whatever reason, May has in many years been a "May be" month for me. And this year seems not much different. Uncertainties in life (which I am not going to touch upon much) and uncertainties in Indian politics - and at times I have felt that the latter is really critical in terms of deciding the fate of India - for 5 years.. ney, may be 50

Before I get into GE2014 again, let me repeat the significance of May 11 (reposting from my 2006 post) :

A)  1857, the first war of Indian independence, essentially started on May 9, and the Indian soldiers recaptured Delhi from the Brits on May 11 . here's something to read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Delhi_(1857) .

B)  1951 : On May 11 Dr Rajendra Prasad, the then President, performed the Prana Prathistha ceremony of a renovated Somnath Temple. And I so love to quote his words, year after year

"By rising from its ashes again, this temple of Somnath, is to say proclaiming to the world,that no man and no power in the world can destroy that for which people have boundless faith and love in their hearts..... Today our aim is not to rectify history, our only aim is to proclaim anew our attachment to the faith , convictions and values on which our religion has rested since immemorial ages"


(the quote can be found on http://blog.lkadvani.in/blog-in-english/no-full-stops-in-bjp though I read it elsewhere)

C) 1998 : The Pokhran II tests - started on May 11  ( Operation Shakti ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II  .  I am glad Narendra Modi tweeted about it this year http://news.oneindia.in/new-delhi/narendra-modi-addresses-twitterattis-on-pokhran-ii-s-16th-anniversary-1445371.html  

 All the three above, for me, are incidents of rejuvenation, and I am hoping, we will see a similar on May 16th

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A few more random items before I close this post

* In my last post, I predicted a 240 for BJP. Even up to a few weeks before that, I had predicted more like a 216.. so what exactly changed ? Well, a few things -  more and more ground reports from Tamil Nadu suggested a few potential seats for BJP there. Some thing seems to be happening in WB - I see lot of Modi talk amongst Bengalis in Bangalore, and Mamata going so all out against Modi tells me that BJP has gained critical mass.  Similarly the desperation shown by Congress and SP in UP to make hurdles for Modi, tells me that indeed there is quite a Modi impact there.. So putting all this together, I redid my min-max-average method, and I simply landed with a 240 . We will see how close or off I am, on May 16 :)  .. so thats another may be

* I have been hinting at my previous posts that Modi may not become PM - I was predicting more of a scenario of NDA (not BJP alone, but NDA) getting close to a 250 (something like a 210 for BJP and 40 for allies), and then some new potential allies insisting they will support NDA if its some one other than Modi as PM. Well, that is still a possibility, but what if NDA actually gets a clear majority - like my latest prediction of 285.. or even a 300 ? In such a situation too, I still see a 50-50 chance  of Modi not being a PM .. I some how feels that he has a grander plan in mind.. even in the Time Now interview, while answering a question of why he has gone all out in attacking the likes of Mamata and "burning bridges" with potential post-poll allies, Modi answered something to the effect of "it has a reason" and when Arnab says he did not quite understand, Modi simply says "understand as much as you can.. and the rest I will tell you after May 12". So is Modi waiting for the final vote to be casted (some repolling is due May 13, so may be after that) and drop a surprise announcement ? Did he meet RSS top brass on May 10 itself instead of waiting for May 13 or even a May 16, to start any discussions along this lines ? Deep within I feel that the meeting was not just about how to manage allies (in case NDA < 272) or who will succeed him in Gujarat, or about his potential cabinet -- I think there is something deeper happening.. we will know soon - till then thats " may be "

* What if Modi indeed becomes the PM ? who will be his ministers.. who will focus on the party - some say Rajnath, some say may be Amit Shah ..  And what if NDA ends up being in opposition after all... will Modi take up being Leader of opposition ? Too many " may be "

* Finally, this is my 250th post .. and May 17th also marks the completion of 9 years of this blog . In 3 years I had 200 posts, but in the next 2 years I had only 25 .. and then it took another 4 years for the next 25 !! So what will be the future of this blog .. Will I get back to a more frequent posting routine ? well, " may be " .

That is what the month of May is about  .. let May be !!


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