If not for the Muslim League

This is a follow up post to the previous one . I was just curious to know if the Congress Party (INC) on its own won a majority in Kerala in the last 30-years. If my numbers are correct, its a big NO

And what is more startling, its % of seats out of the total has been reducing - both for the "UDF winning cycle" (shaded in green) and for the "UDF losing cycle". And in the latest election, Congress party doesn't even have a simple majority in UDF itself -allies have. CongressMuktKerala in offing ?

the Kerala voting pattern

One question I keep facing from some friends is why doesn't BJP do big in Kerala. With the Vengara by-election results, the same questions have been raised - fact is, in such a hugely Muslim dominated constituency, BJP never stood a chance - though decline in its votes warrants introspection

There are many reasons why BJP doesn't fully click in Kerala - let me give the demographic one now

The above is my "theory" or "hypothesis" as applicable for 2014/16 - because it is not based on any major statistical analysis or data - just out of my understanding of Kerala. Red is the left and allies (LDF) , green is Congress and allies(UDF)  and saffron BJP and its allies (NDA). The Hindu, Christian and Muslim numbers may not exactly match the numbers given at http://infoelections.com/infoelection/index.php/kerala/7433-caste-religion-wise-population-in-kerala.html but that one are 2011 numbers and I don't fully trust them. So I will go with my 52-28-20 numbers.

Now, what I have shown is an almost "solid base" - the minimum that these parties will get. Almost 18% are "swing and others". By swing I mean people who are not solid - it doesn't necessarily mean that the whole swing will be a state-wide phenomenon. Lot of local factors and even "personal" factors play in. In 2016 assembly elections LDF got ~6% of that "swing" (so it got ~43%), UDF got ~4% (so it got ~39%), NDA got about 5% (so it got ~15%) and the 3% went to others (total 3%)

Indeed, there are pockets like Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad , Kasargod where BJP many times comes a close second.. But then that is far from making a solid impact in Kerala. Unless something majorly changes, in the 2021 assembly elections too, BJP may not be part of "deciding who rules"

So then, what is its future ? Well, let us purely look at the Hindu votes - I have split it as 50% left, 20% UDF, 18% NDA and 16% swing. BJP's future will depend on how much they can "tap into"

1) The Hindu votes - and naturally, the biggest "sufferers" will be the left, which is why wherever BJP starts getting traction, the left starts violence. And from what I know, the pro-BJP votes from Hindus cuts across caste lines ( The RSS worker brutally murdered by left's goondas recently was from the SC Pulaya community as per https://scroll.in/article/845869/rss-workers-murder-throws-light-on-growing-competitive-politics-in-keralas-dalit-neighbourhoods indeed, no "self-proclaimed champions of Dalits" seemed to even bother or pretended that they did not know)

In my opinion, there is some reasons due to which the flow of cadres between left and BJP is more 'natural' - first both are cadre based parties, not-so-much family-based parties, both have core "sociological ideology" -- in fact, many of the Hindu-communists (not an oxymoron when it comes to Kerala) are religious too.. I keep saying, if you take a poll among the Sabarimala going Hindus, left party may win hands down ! The big differences between the left and BJP are in their views of Nationalism and minority appeasement -- for the latter, the left in Kerala is worse than Congress (whatever Hindu votes the left loses to BJP, it tries to make up by getting Muslim votes)

How about swinging Hindu-Congress votes to BJP.. well it depends.. Most of the Hindu-Congress voters are still there just because a) their forefathers were Congress b) they are anti-communists and just don't feel confident enough that BJP can beat the left c) no "ideology", so de facto Congress

So in my opinion, from that "solid" (as I mentioned thats the 2014/16 situation) 25 + 10, at best, may be by 2026, BJP may be able to get 10 more - that will still take it to their best of 15 + 10 = 25 (and that assuming it doesn't lose much from the 15% it got in 2016 ). Chances of that 25% itself appears bleak (unless a major game changing local leader or issue arises).. and even if it happens, the LDF + UDF with a 70-75% can prevent the BJP from getting significant seats (already happening locally)

2) non-Hindu votes:  Getting and non-trivial percentage of Muslim votes is out of question in the near future. This is one reason BJP tries to reach out to the predominantly Christian Kerala Congress. In my opinion that may not be a good idea in the long term. Kerala Congress - with umpteen factions - in general has lot of corruption issues and in some sense follows the basic ideology of Congress - that politics is to enhance ones own family and to eat away public money. What BJP may need to do is to slowly attract the section of the Christians who sees "logic", who are very Nationalistic, and many of whom respect and even practice some aspects of Hinduism.

Many christian families teach their children classical dance and music - a section of the Hindutva folks view this as inculturation as a means for more conversions.. May be some do it for this sake, but a good amount of Christians do it because they respect the Hindu traditions and culture.

Well, easy said than done, some might say.. and with all this too, at best you can get a "5" out of 20. And by the time you get that 25+5 = 30% , the Hindu population may have already come below 50% and the whole arithmetic may change. So yes, catch-22 it is, but there is no option with the BJP except to patiently keep trying -- unless a local messiah or issue is string enough for a "revolution"

20 years since Pinarayi Vijayan visited US and 3 other countries

Here is an interview from 1997 Aug 1 - https://www.destination-kerala.com/1997/08/01/kerala-evokes-widespread-interest-abroad-says-cm-nayanar/ of the then communist CM of Kerala

I am adding a screenshot here, just for the records and looking at some of the things there, just cannot stop laughing - self-declared US haters ("anti-capitalists") on a trip to Niagra Falls to study the possibility of  power generation from Athirappilly Falls in Kerala - and 20 years since, not only has that materialized, neither do I see any investment coming to Kerala from France and Italy. And these are the very folks criticizing Modi on his foreign tours . MCC did become a reality, but SNC Lavalin became controversial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_Kerala_hydroelectric_scandal

the postage stamp long economics

A few months before the general elections 2014, P Chidambaram, made a statement on the NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate - "Modi's knowledge of economics can be written on the back of a postage stamp" [ We all know Chidambaram's skill at economics, going by what his son has earned] 

Modi replied in a Feb 2014 speech -  "My knowledge is so small that you do not even need a postal stamp to write it. It is encapsulated in just one word - trustee, like Gandhi-ji talked of trusteeship. You are the trustee of the country's resources, not its owner. For me, this much knowledge is enough,"

Let me start of saying, I perhaps don't even know that much on economics.. If I remember it right, during my BTech at IITM, the lowest ever grade I got was for economics :-) .. but that shouldn't stop me from jumping into the bandwagon of giving an opinion or two on DeMo and GST !

courtesy: https://twitter.com/manojkureel?lang=en 

In particular, there has been a slew in articles in MSM about "economic slowdown". The major trigger may have been the GDP 5.7% numbers. And this triggered a "backward analysis" leading up to criticism of DeMo. Yet again, I am no expert here, but here are certain things to consider 

1) Take a simple example - In Kerala, my home state, the flow of black money in the real estate market is an open secret -- especially in the Malabar area where there has been a big flow on non-tax-paid money from the Gulf. You buy a land for 50lakhs, what you show on paper (and hence pay tax for) is something like 1 lakh !! Yes, you heard it right, 98% black money. 

And right after DeMo, I heard (and the situation more or less continues even now), that real estate transactions became far less in number - almost came to a stand still. Yes, slow down - but isn't it worth it ? One may argue, oh well, things will slowly go back to normal (read as the 98% black money situation) eventually, so what has one gained ? Well, I am pretty sure there are many many who would have made a decision that they are never going to invest their hard earned salaried money in such a market. Perhaps even shy away from dealing with black money in the lakhs.. These folks will remain silent, of course - but let that not be misread as "no impact". 

The impact of DeMo in cutting the money for the Kashmiri terrorists and naxals are also well know.. and indeed the crackdown on shell companies.. the reduction in the "check-post corruption" - Suffice to say, there has been enough evidence of reduced corruption.. something that noone easily "admits", because that amounts to accepting a high corruption in the days before the DeMo

2) There was an article about a real estate transaction in Bangalore - all papers were clean, and yet he had to pay bribe - but because it was post DeMo, he had to pay in thousands and not in lakhs as it used to be before DeMo . Again, one may say, look, you did not clean up the system, you just reduced its level of "evilness" - true, but again, that has a cascading impact... and no wonder, some people are pained and yet "silent"- isn't it a "slowdown" that one prefers ?

The same applies for apartment prices also - they were skyrocketing, and suddenly, it stagnated. Now, is it Modi's fault that the prices were going into such a bloated up situation , without any logic, that those who bought it the time when they were are its peak, are now disappointed ?  

3) Coming to GST - well, the key point, in my opinion, is this - IF .. and that is a big IF , someone were paying sales tax sincerely, I believe GST (in most cases) would have made his business better. But the fact of the matter was, sadly, that many were just not paying the taxes... and now they are forced to (to get the benefits) - and so naturally, it became a losing game for them.  Interestingly, most of them transferred the burden on to the end customer... A hotel that sold food at 100 rupee before, was perhaps supposed to pay a tax of 15 rupees.. but the guy never did.. thanks to a weak system. Now he has to pay 12 rupee GST, and he doesn't want lose his original 100 rupee revenue (all of which went into his pocket).. and so he adds 12 rupee to the 100 and charges the customer 112.. In the end it looks as though because of GST the prices went up - well, it did, but simply because the trader never paid tax to begin with. 

4) Well, one may ask - so what.. may be Modi did the right thing.. but aren't perceptions that matter ? A business man who is now forced to pay GST , is going to vote against Modi next time.. the end customer, many of whom the salaried class are also going to vote against Modi because the burden has ultimately been carried to them... well well well - at the surface yes.. but the Indian electorate - perhaps its vastness, perhaps its diversity -- has been something that nobody has been able to decode correctly. That mind, will only.. I repeat - only be fully known in the next elections .. and by the way, isn't "how is India after 20 years" more important than "how India votes after 2 years" ?   

I believe Chanakya Niti Chapter 6, shloka 16 says 

प्रभूतं कार्यमपि वा तत्परः प्रकर्तुमिच्छति।
सर्वारम्भेण तत्कार्यं सिंहादेकं प्रचक्षते॥

can be translated as.  The one excellent thing that can be learned from a lion is that whatever a man intends doing should be done by him with a wholehearted and strenuous effort (reference) or Without considering about the quantum of a Work, doing work with full devotion/strength/capacity is the prime traits of a Lion. We should the same (reference)

If Modi is indeed doing that, in the spirit of Trusteeship, then its short term pain for long term gain