Friday, May 09, 2014

My final prediction for GE2014

Its 7pm IST on May 9th. One week from now, by this time, quite likely the fate of a 1.25 billion strong Nation may be decided. It is a strange feeling, and as the campaigning comes to an end tomorrow, it seems to have reached a high pitch.

As I started this series on GE2014, one of my initial posts (on 2013 Oct 16 to be exact) was my prediction of the numbers.  . My method has been a "method of averages" and interestingly had predicted it fairly accurate for 2009 GE ( he he he .. where are the Sardesais and the Goswamys ??)  . In my Oct 16 post too, I had predicted based on my feeling at that time and some extrapolations.. I had at that time given a good chance for a potential BJP-AIADMK alliance and may be even a BJP-TMC. Both did not happen. I present here my feeling/prediction now that campaigning is almost coming to an end.

State Tot Min Max Avg Allies

UP 80 40 60 50 1
Bihar 40 16 24 20 5
Guj+MP+Raj 80 68 76 72
Mah 48 14 22 18 12-16
Jhknd 14 8 12 10
Chtsgrh 11 6 10 8
Kar 28 12 18 15
AP 42 2 6 4 13-15
TN 39 1 3 2 3-5
Assm 14 2 6 4
Odisha 21 4 8 6
Del 7 3 7 5
Har 10 6 8 7 1
Pun 13 1 3 2 3-5
Uknd 5 3 5 4
HP 4 2 4 3
JK 6 0 2 1
Goa 2 0 2 1
WB 42 0 8 4
Kerala 20 0 0 0
Others 17 2 6 4 2

Total 543 190 290 240 40-50

Some interesting points to note:

1) One major difference has been that I seperated the BJP numbers from that of allies.

2)  Min-Max range in Oct prediction was 160-340 .. Now its 230-340 for NDA (average 285)

3) There is still a chance, however small, of BJP getting to the majority mark on its own

4) More likely chance I feel is BJP getting to 240 mark, provided UP story is true ! 


Anonymous said...

Modi has said that the results will get most Poll Pundits wrong - but he has not given any numbers that he expects. But Amit Shah has said NDA will get 300+ . Let us say 300. Out of that close to 50 may be from allies. So it seems that even he is calculating a 250 for BJP.

drisyadrisya said...

@anon . Yes . Also, BJP seems to have become more aggressive in the last phases of the campaigning. Be it in WB or the Ram-Rajya in UP, Modi's own caste reference or taking on the EC head on. While each of these matters have its own reasons, there may be a common reason as well. It is not clear though, if it is a last minute attempt to push the calculated 250 to a 270, or whether they calculated a 230 and want to push it to a 250 . We will know on May 16

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, Kejriwal has claimed 170 seats for BJP ( let us say 210 for NDA). And about 100 for Congress ( Let us say 120 for UPA). That means he is still thinking 210 for others. Assuming a big chunk of 110 for major regional parties like TMC/left, AIADMK/DMK, SP/BSP , BJD, TRS/YSR and another 20 for smaller ones, he still seems to believe that AAP will get a 80 . The guy is unbelievably self-hyped up

drisyadrisya said...

Agree .. 170 for BJP and 100 Congress cannot go hand in hand. If BJP, for whatever reason gets only 170, that would mean at least 140 for Congress.

Kejriwal has essentially destroyed AAP . He has made too many hyped up statements (example: "our surveys predict we will win 50 seats in Delhi" ; "we will win 100 seats in LS polls") that these days no one other than blind aapsters seems to be taking him seriously.

My own assessment is that in some low margin constituencies, AAP may have actually split the anti-Modi votes and helped BJP. Even in Varanasi, Congress seems to have managed to get some tactical gains - getting Ansari support etc, but Kejriwals attempt seems to be splitting even the Muslim votes.. India Today Varanasi poll predicted some 40% Muslim votes for Congress and about 21% for AAP (interestingly a close third of 17% from BJP ... SP seems to be only 4th with 15%) . Imagine if AAP and SP had supported Congress. Modi may still win, but would have had a lower margin.

The desperation from various parties to get Muslim votes and the race to try to be seen as the "best against Modi" has basically damaged them all. We will know only on May 16th, but my own personal feeling is that this is what Modi wanted, and it has more or less gone per his plans