Friday, January 24, 2014

wishful thinking and thoughtful wishes

Note: This is also "Part2 of the bigger picture". See the GE2014 tag for all posts related to Elections 2014

Results if the two Nationwide opinion polls are out, see high level comparison at  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/BJP-poised-for-best-ever-tally-Narendra-Modi-set-to-be-PM-say-polls/articleshow/29322215.cms . I tend to believe more in the C-Voter poll at http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/modi-led-nda-all-set-to-topple-upa-india-today-poll/1/339408.html , so about 212 for current. NDA So where do things go from here ? Here are my imaginations

1) The best case scenario for BJP is if it can improve state by state on the predicted numbers. Let us take the C-voter 212 number itself..  UP @ 30 .. BJP cud get 10 more .. Bihar at 22 , let us say 5 more .. , MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/Jharkand has predicted 20 seats for non-BJP, lets say 5 more out of that .. another 5 more from Karnataka/Gujarat .. and 5 more from delhi/maharashtra etc .. that is 30 more, making it 242 ! So every seat counts for BJP ...

2) The second possibility is more pre-poll alliances... Vaiko/Ramadoss alliance in TN may not convert into too many seats... More important ones would be with AIADMK ( ~35 seats at stake), with TDP and TRS (~25 seats) with BJD (~15 seats), with TMC ( ~25 seats). Numbers in bracket is the possible seats that can be won by such alliance, including the BJP vote share. This is a total of 100 seats, even if two of this work out, NDA is through

3) For each of the above cases, if there is no pre-poll alliance with BJP, the numbers for the respective regional parties, my guess would be along the lines of 30 , 20, 10, 20 .. adding up to 80 .. A post-poll alliance with two of these could also help NDA cross the target.. It does look like the regional parties may not lose much by not tying up with BJP before elections - may be 5 seats at best.. and each of these regional parties, deep down will not want BJP to grow in their states...  BJP on the other hand, by making pre-poll alliances, may not gain too much either of its own numbers ... At best a 20 from all these states combined (the alliance partners seats continues to be theirs, be it pre-poll or post-poll alliance) .. Going by pre-poll alliance, BJP actually oses the chance of standing on its own and getting a feel for how much votes it can get, riding on the NaMo factor - and build on it for long term

4) Okay, so the NDA about 210 .. all these possible NDA future allies at about 90 , UPA at 100 ... those add up to 400 .. where is the rest 140 going ? Per C-Voter 30 for left, 25 for BSP, 20 for SP, 15 for YSR, 10 for AAP, 5 for DMK, another 5 pro-UPA parties .. thats about 110 , more likely to support UPA ..That makes it 210 for UPA... a possible switch over of TRS and TMC could make it about 250..   The rest 30 are independents plus really small parties - these could support either NDA or UPA, so UPA-3 cannot still be ruled out or even a 'third-front'

5) But my best bet at this point is that the NDA as it stands now will get about 220-230 by the election time, unless all these polls are under estimating the Namo factor and BJP really sweeps MP/Guajarat etc and get 50 in UP . And there is quite a likelihood that some potential allies may object to Modi. If it indeed happens, I think that is a golden chance for BJP - Namo can sacrifice his PM claim, and focus on building the party in all those states (like TN, like Orissa, like WB, Kerala) where there will be a new found surge in BJP votes. Who should be the BJP PM candidate then...  could be Advani, Sushma, Chouhan.... somehow my choice is Parikkar - for now.. lets discuss this later

6) Finally, what the the possible X-factors from now on ? There is still 80-90 days and a lot can change.. AAP may continue to come up with new drama scripts, big controversies could happen,.. alliances may change.. etc etc.. There could be more 'attacks' on Modi - Congress' dirty games department is known to do that.. there could even be an attempt on his life.. these are things not fully in BJP's hand. At this point, they can only keep working.. trying to convert the 30 in UP to a 50.. the 13 in Karnataka to a 20 .. open its account in Kerala.. and so on

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