BJP - short and medium term goals

This is kind of a speculative post and some random thoughts based on current fast changing political moves. In summary, it is becoming more and more clear that NaMo has a long term plan for BJP and India - atleast 10 yrs

* Quite a lot has been said already about Narendra Modi contesting from Varanasi - that the BJP wants to gain maximum seats from eastern UP and western Bihar. Quite possible and nothing wrong in it, but what many of this media analysis has missed is Modi's agenda for India beyond just the BJP winning seats. Remember the BIMARU states. Madhya Pradesh under Chouhan has tremendously progressed since. Rajasthan is back with BJP and this time around Vasundhara seems to drive a development agenda. The states formed out of the BIMARU - Chattisgarh is picking up and with Raman Singh's ambitious Raipur development agenda, it is bound to pick up faster. Once Bihar got rid of Lalu from power, it had started signs of coming out of the dark ages, but not at a pace matching with what it is capable of. Unfortunately UP has been the least changed and that is where Modi is hoping to make a difference. He realizes that if a strong India has to be built up, UP has to be "cleaned up", including the Ganga !

* So the plan will be to get maximum MPs for BJP , do good work for 3 years through them and then try to gain back power in the state in Mar 2017 elections. Kalyan Singh would be 85 yrs old by then, so it will be interesting to see who the State Leader would be. 3 years is quite a lot of time to see who will emerge

* Delhi seems another interesting case - with Dr HarshVardhan moving to Loksabha, it will be interesting to see who BJP's chief minister candidate will be. Most likely Delhi elections will be later this year. Social media is full of speculation that it may be Kiran Bedi - we will have to wait and see .

* In Uttarakhand too, former CMs of BJP are contesting for LS . It is likely that for the 2017 elections, BJP may want younger leaders to emerge and be the CM candidate

In short, there seems to be an underlying strategy that Modi is adopting, slowly but steadily - to usher in fresh blood at the state level, and move some of the experienced to the Lok Sabha

* What about Rajya Sabha ? With Jaitley moving to LS, BJP will need a good orator in RS . Well, frankly , the party doesn't need a mass leader - Jaitley never was one - but needs more of an intellectual there. Moreover many of the current Congress leaders in LS may end up running away from or losing this LS elections and end up being nominated to RS - BJP needs a sharp person to take them on in RS. My own feeling is that Subramaniam Swamy may fill that place in. Though Swamy is popular among Tweeples and in intellectual circles, he may not be popular enough among the common man to be able to win from an LS seat, say in Delhi, where his supporters wanted him

* What about states with weak BJP presence ? BJP will want a TDP government in Seemandhra and in turn getting TDP support for NDA. Similarly a TRS govt in Telengana and support for NDA. Both seem reasonably likely. If these alliances can be continued in the ShivSena model - where BJP continues to play junior partner but neverthless has a significant clout on its own as well - it will be long term beneficial for the party's South India influence. For TN , Modi for now may want to test the waters with the non-conventional (for BJP) alliance that it has built up , see the result and then decide on a future strategy for long term growth of the BJP. In many other places like Kerala, Assam, Bengal, Odisha, NE , the BJP is going alone, hoping to get as many votes as possible (and in some cases a few seats) and then build on that for future.

* Finally, what about the overall National plan. I still strongly feel that NDA may end up with a 240-250 this time, take outside support from parties that would want some one other than Modi as PM, which in reality will be a blessing in disguise if NaMo decided to dedicate his time to build up the party along the lines that I have mentioned above, while continuing to be the Gujarat CM till 2017 December when elections are due. He could take up the mantle of PMship in 2018 (he will be 67 then), preparing the party with a much bigger base for 2019 election (or a snap poll if any of the NDA allies pull out and make it fall), continue to be PM till 2024 (he will be 73) and retire

This is not to suggest that BJP should give up mission 272+ . Keep trying, but know that other possibilities exist as well


 

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