VijayiBharat

A few weeks when Indian Army tweeted that they saw foot prints that may be of the mysterious Yeti, some one commented on the tweet "Modi ko vote dene baahar nikalaa hoga"

Its a few minutes past 3pm on the 23May2019, and two things are already almost for sure - BJP on its own crossing 272, and even crossing its 2014 high of 282 ; 300 still in question . That tells me that the joke above was semi-serious. This has truly been a people's election -- people have cancelled vacations, traveled Miles, crossed oceans - to vote for Modi. MASSIVE ! 

In 2014, Modi wanted the people of India. In 2019 the people of India wanted him. I stand vindicated for my catch phrase - "Merit Is the Reason". Modi has been the best so far.

Many RWs on social media are commenting - "the ghost of 2004 is finally over". To me, there are very many reasons. Modi performed better than Vajpayee, its a fact. (Compare the knee jerk reaction to Kandahar with solid responses to Uri and Pulwama). BJP Presidents during 1999-2004 were far far less efficient than the Chanakya Amit Shah. Slipping the majority in Ktaka, losing 3 states in 2018, were all wake up calls. Indeed Rahul Gandhi's stupidity added to all these

What next ? Expectations once again soar, especially on "Hindu issues" like Ayodhya, RTE .. Kerala , Tamil Nadu and AP continue to be challenge. Telangana, Odisha are showing signs of revival, but slow. WB has thrown up big hopes. What will happen to Ktaka and MP state govts are to be seen

But to me, these are relatively smaller issues. Narendra Modi has a historic chance, to change India in such a way that there is no reversal for centuries. He may not be the PM candidate in 2024, but he can put a system in place, put such "successors" in place, that no matter how much the anti-India elements combine, they cannot damage the fabric of this great Nation. This may mean constitutional amendments too - but not limited to that. Trust in judiciary probably is at an abysmal low....

Will he achieve it ? Or at least will he try ? Time alone will tell -- and that will define if Narendra Modi will be remembered like Narendranatha Dutta (Swami Vivekananda) for centuries to come

prediction

Using the same method I used for GE2014 - see http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.com/2014/05/my-final-prediction-for-ge2014_9.html

State	Tot	Min	Max	Avg	Allies
UP	80	32	78	55	1
Bihar	40	12	18	15	12
Guj+MP+Raj	80	64	76	70
Mah	48	16	20	18	16
Jhknd	14	8	12	10
Chtsgrh	11	4	8	6
Kar	28	14	22	18
AP/TG	42	0	4	2
TN	39	1	3	2	10
Assm	14	6	10	8
Odisha	21	8	16	12
Del	7	3	7	5
Har	10	6	8	7	1
Pun	13	1	3	2	1
Uknd	5	3	5	4
HP	4	2	4	3
JK	6	0	2	1
Goa	2	0	2	1
WB	42	8	24	16
Kerala	20	1	3	2
Others	17	4	12	8	3
Total	543	193	337	265	44

mitr8 (conclusion)

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With time running out, I am concluding the series with this post - so 8 instead of 10

Over the last 7 posts, various aspects were covered - economics (both macro and micro), security, foreign policy and much more. The one item pending was "hindutva". Has the govt done much to please the Hindutva brigade ?  This is a rather complex topic, and cannot be dealt with without going into the evolution of hindutva itself. In my opinion, hindutva itself has moved from 1.0 to 2.0 and is now evolving into a 3.0 - I will cover this in a later series

For now suffice to say that, in its own ways, government has done many things to restore the pride in being Hindu - starting with the very Gangamata Puja that PM did before swearing in and subsequently cleaning the Ganga and Varanasi. Giving Yoga international acceptance, supporting Hindu communities elsewhere in the world, and so on.

Its true that nothing much was done to retract a seemingly biased RTE scheme, but to say that because of that we will not vote for Modi, there by helping the very folks (ie Cong) who brought it in the first place seems suicidal. Ordinances were not passed for Ayodhya and Sabarimala, but then wasn't it always Modi's policy to not poke into things govt should not ? Isnt the Hindu society wanting to free temples from govt control, and with that logic, how can govt issue ordinance ?

Let me conclude by saying -- "Lets not lose the "best so far", for want of an imaginary "perfect"

mitr7

Not just the Congress, even some among the BJP supporters seem to "believe" that job creation is one area where Modi govt do a great job. I will consider the following points

1) We need to get out of the notion of jobs = govt jobs, especially with many white elephants..

2) It doesn't make logical sense that GDP growth of  >7% was achieved without job creation

3) India's informal sector remains huge. In some areas "middle men" have reduced

4) Prof Pulak Ghosh of IIM Bangalore and Dr Soumya Ghosh , Chief Economic Advisor to SBI have brought out a detailed study. Going by this article , "15 million people are being added to the labour force every year, busting the theory that jobs are not being created in the country .... we estimate that on an average 25 million babies born per year (this has been calculated after adjusting infant morality rate from crude birth rate) has remained largely constant in the last three decades. Out of 25 million, we expect that 15 million are added to labour force (after conservatively assuming 40% of them voluntarily remain out of labour force or are involved in domestic/agriculture work).”

What has escaped major discussion in main stream media are a bunch of measures taken by the government from a Human Resource angle - extension of maternity leave period , many measures of the AYUSH ministry ,  The Rs 2.50 biodegradable sanitary napkins , various measures for divyang ( differently abled), Hum fit to India fit campaign and so on.

While the International Yoga day has become a big hit, what is perhaps less known is India's stride in emerging as a key player in geopolitics. The rather less know Raisana dialogue is one such example, efforts like this will at least take a decade to really show its impact, which is exactly why we need

Modi Once More    

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mitr6

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Part-3 of my series was on Roti-Kapda-Makaan . This part-6 will be on Bijli-Sadak-Paani

Much has been talked by opposition that the claim by Modi govt of completing the rural electrification is not worth taking credit for. Well, let us go to year 2012 .. there were probably 22000 villages left without electricity. In the 2 years of 2012-13 and 13-14, UPA govt electrified close to 4000 .. ie average 2000 per year. Between 2014 - 18, Modi govt completed the remaining 18000 - average 4500 per year. And it is a no-brainer that the last ones are always the toughest -- or else the UPA2 could have just completed them and taken credit.. and lets not forget, Cong rules for 55yrs+

And by the way, India is the third biggest electricity producing Nation (ref1).

Roads - As a reader if you have any doubts that Modi govt roads much faster (and hence more kms within the time frame) compared to UPA-2, then perhaps there is no point in reading m blog, because only the ultra-biased against Modi can tend to "believe" so. The data is all over the internet. What is interesting is that government has already planned ahead also- Bharatmala, a centrally-sponsored and funded road and highways project of the Government of India with a target of constructing 83,677 km (51,994 mi)[6] of new highways, has been started in 2018. Phase I of the Bharatmala project involves the construction of 34,800 km of highways (including the remaining projects under NHDP) at an estimated cost of ₹5.35 lakh crore (US$74 billion) by 2021-22.   

source: wikipedia

Development - electricity or road comes with concerns of environment. So let me touch up on that briefly. A report (ref2) says, in Nov 2015 the Indian government announced that plastic roads would be the default method of construction for most city streets, part of a multibillion-dollar overhaul of the country’s roads and highways. Urban areas with more than 500,000 people are now required to construct roads using waste plastic. As for renewable energy, let me quote from this article (ref3) During the four years of its rule, Modi government brought about many changes in the country’s renewable energy landscape. Even though it may be too early to call the entire journey as path-breaking, many positive changes have definitely occurred in the last four years considering what latest data shared by the respective ministry show

Finally, water - Whether its the sewage plants being setup (ref4) or actually diverting Asia's biggest sewage from going into a sewage plant as opposed to Ganga (ref5) , Namami Gange project has slowly picked up speed .. Dolphin count going up from 22 to 33 (ref6) cannot be for no reason. National waterways project ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Waterway_1 ) is perhaps one of the least talked about , yet big impact project. One may disagree with certain decisions taken by the government, but everyone will have to agree - This govt doesnt shy away from decision and action !

ref1: https://www.chandrashekharpoddar.com/2018/03/3rdLarEleProIN.html?m=0

ref2: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jun/30/plastic-road-india-tar-plastic-transport-environment-pollution-waste

ref3: https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/4-years-of-modi-government-how-india-performed-in-renewable-energy-sector/1194517/

ref4: https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/clean-ganga-mission-gets-a-boost-varanasi-sewage-plant-to-clean-14-crore-litres-of-wastewater-everyday/story/290359.html

ref5: https://www.opindia.com/2018/11/ganga-cleaning-got-a-major-boost-the-river-got-rid-of-waste-from-asias-largest-sewer/

ref6: https://www.hindustantimes.com/noida/ganga-river-dolphins-count-rises-to-33-up-from-22-in-2015/story-7PHtZKeVh8q3gyGdQi1IOP.html

mitr5

As I type this fifth part of my "Merit Is the Reason" (MITR) series, "Uri:The Surgical Strike" movie fever has already gripped the country. Expected to cross 100cr today (10th day, second weekend) or soon, it has become popular especially among the youth. In the theater where I saw it twice, there were 3 shows-a-day in the first weekend. This weekend, they have 6 and all sold out

I had mentioned in the comments section of MITR-1 that terrorism and defense related topics will be covered in this part-5 and the timing couldn't have been better. But where do I begin ?

19th June 2014 - barely one month into Modi govt. Security forces receive intel about Adil Ahmed Mir, Hizbul Mujahideen (HM)'s area commander. Unlike a "wait for him to attack us" approach, a squad of 8 - from 3 Rashtriya Rifles and JK Police's special Operations group -- reach the spot, kill Adil and two other terrorists. 2 from the Indian squad gets injured, but the Operation was successful (ref1).  This would perhaps be the first of a series of such special operations under Modi govt -- I started tracking some of the hi-profile terrorists killed in this post and its comments here ( link ), but I could not keep up - 2017(213 killed) and 2018 (222+) Ops are tracked in wikipedia (Ref1). The article mentions about some operations during 2003, 2004 .. and there after mostly under Modi govt !

Pic courtesy: https://www.pgurus.com/shelf-life-of-terrorists-reduced-in-jammu-and-kashmir/

Interestingly Adil was the mentor and trainer for Burhan Wani and a detailed account of the encounter can be found in "India's most fearless" by Shiv Aroor and Rahul Singh. When one reads the book, one aspect stands out - Indian  Army's SOP demands that when an operation is launched based on Intel, utmost care has to be taken to ensure that it is indeed a terrorist and not a civilian mistaken. This means Army men take positions, literally call out "who are you?" (there by revealing their own positions and are exposed), and only based on the reaction (which in most cases is a volley of firing from the terrorist) act further. This amazing restraint from India's forces is a major factor that in spite of 200+ terrorists killed within Indian territory annually, there has been near zero accusations of civilian deaths, human rights violations etc -- OR if there has been any, it has been quite muted and not at an International pressure level -- which leads me to the two other factors that were needed for these operations to be possible - one, strong international relationship, and two cutting off the money supply, especially black money supply to terrorists and their "spokespersons"

Not just Kashmir terrorism, DeMo "broke the backbone of Naxal funding" also, and resulted in "increased number of naxal surrenders" [detailed report brought out in Oct 2018 is in Ref2]. This is where the genius of Modi-Doval combo makes it very different from previous govts. Their actions are not to be seen in isolation, not to be seen as reactive. Instead, its a carefully planned out strategy - a strategy for at least 5 years for sure.. Whether the strategy goes beyond 5 years, and whether there are still "dots to be connected", will be known only if India decides to re-elect Modi in a few months!

For those who have short memory, let me also remind readers of the implementation of OROP after it being stuck for 40 years [ Ref3 ], India's moral and diplomatic victory in Doklam [ Ref4 ] and indeed the fact that terrorist attack on civilians have been minimal, and even on Army men have considerably reduced after the "twin" (Pak and Myanmar) surgical strikes

Unfortunately, for some people, expectations are too high from Modi. They want him to solve all the mess that non-BJP govts have created for 60 years - within 5 years. One can only hope that Indian masses will not let down the "best-so-far" in demand (bordering greed) of an imaginary "even-better"

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Ref1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_operations_in_Jammu_and_Kashmir

Ref2: http://www.pprc.in/upload/Demonetization%20-%20Impact%20on%20Combating%20Naxalism.pdf

Ref3: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/government-delivered-on-orop-promise-committed-to-army-narendra-modi/articleshow/60928403.cms

Ref4: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-doklam-crisis-ends-a-diplomatic-victory-for-india/