Sunday, December 23, 2018

mitr4

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Quoting straight from this article "One of the important yardstick to measure the financial health of an economy is Fiscal deficit. It is the difference between the government revenues and expenditure. The difference is generally bridged by debt. The present government is committed to reduce the gap. The long term fiscal deficit target is 3% of the Gross domestic product (GDP)"





Clearly, the UPA government had been spending much more than the revenue -- given that it was not much in infrastructure and long term development projects, what must that have been ? One, quite likely projects with a lot of "leak" ..

example1: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/fund-leakage-nearly-a-crore-fake-job-cards-struck-off-from-mgnrega-scheme/story-JpsHg1k0mKNE5BNxKF4aKL.html  "cancelled job cards amount to more than 14% of the active households engaged in the job scheme, launched by the previous Congress-led UPA government"

example2: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/rs-44000-crore-loan-waiver-has-helped-only-800-farmers-so-far-karnataka/articleshow/67069947.cms (not exactly a UPA example, but to show how money is lost in poor implementation of schemes, and may even benefit those who don't deserve it)

The Modi govt on the other had as tried its best to reduce the fiscal deficit. In 2016-17 it met the target of 3.5% ; Jaitley wanted an ambitious target of 3.2% for 2017-18, but later reestimated and met a 3.5% again. For an  2019, yet again govt started off with an ambitious 3.3% plan, but in election year, with potential benefit schemes (and as I type it, govt has just reduced tax of bunch of items to 18% or less), it is likely to not meet 3.3%, but as per latest reports, is poised again at 3.5%


Quoting two more articles related to Modi's impact while dealing with other Nations, and some data on IIP and so on


https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/opec-to-consider-modi-s-views-on-slashing-oil-prices-saudi-energy-minister-118120700094_1.html


https://www.livemint.com/Industry/J7bedNXvkbJkv21RYM6gRI/Industrial-production-up-75-in-January.html


To me, what had been most striking about Modi govt is that it has been not willing to compromise much "for the sake of votes". Priority has been for measures for long term stability as well as to uplift the Indian mind set from a "want subsidy on everything". Will the Indian voter rise up ?


One may be tempted to quote recent assembly election results (Raj, MP, Chattisgarh) as examples of Congress subsidy Raj (or promises to that effect) "winning" again. I tend to disagree. Indian voter is getting more and more "result oriented" (and especially with more youth getting added). The trend will continue -- caste based and subsidy based politics will take a back seat. Modi is accelerating it


Except in Chattisgarh , the vote share for BJP has not been bad at all - and remember, it was a vote after 3 successive terms on state govts. The VS is likely to rise in favor of Modi, but the next 3-4 months are critical for BJP -- it has to remind the voters, that it stands for #IndiaFirst











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