mitr4

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Quoting straight from this article "One of the important yardstick to measure the financial health of an economy is Fiscal deficit. It is the difference between the government revenues and expenditure. The difference is generally bridged by debt. The present government is committed to reduce the gap. The long term fiscal deficit target is 3% of the Gross domestic product (GDP)"



Clearly, the UPA government had been spending much more than the revenue -- given that it was not much in infrastructure and long term development projects, what must that have been ? One, quite likely projects with a lot of "leak" ..

example1: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/fund-leakage-nearly-a-crore-fake-job-cards-struck-off-from-mgnrega-scheme/story-JpsHg1k0mKNE5BNxKF4aKL.html  "cancelled job cards amount to more than 14% of the active households engaged in the job scheme, launched by the previous Congress-led UPA government"

example2: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/rs-44000-crore-loan-waiver-has-helped-only-800-farmers-so-far-karnataka/articleshow/67069947.cms (not exactly a UPA example, but to show how money is lost in poor implementation of schemes, and may even benefit those who don't deserve it)

The Modi govt on the other had as tried its best to reduce the fiscal deficit. In 2016-17 it met the target of 3.5% ; Jaitley wanted an ambitious target of 3.2% for 2017-18, but later reestimated and met a 3.5% again. For an  2019, yet again govt started off with an ambitious 3.3% plan, but in election year, with potential benefit schemes (and as I type it, govt has just reduced tax of bunch of items to 18% or less), it is likely to not meet 3.3%, but as per latest reports, is poised again at 3.5%


Quoting two more articles related to Modi's impact while dealing with other Nations, and some data on IIP and so on


https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/opec-to-consider-modi-s-views-on-slashing-oil-prices-saudi-energy-minister-118120700094_1.html


https://www.livemint.com/Industry/J7bedNXvkbJkv21RYM6gRI/Industrial-production-up-75-in-January.html


To me, what had been most striking about Modi govt is that it has been not willing to compromise much "for the sake of votes". Priority has been for measures for long term stability as well as to uplift the Indian mind set from a "want subsidy on everything". Will the Indian voter rise up ?


One may be tempted to quote recent assembly election results (Raj, MP, Chattisgarh) as examples of Congress subsidy Raj (or promises to that effect) "winning" again. I tend to disagree. Indian voter is getting more and more "result oriented" (and especially with more youth getting added). The trend will continue -- caste based and subsidy based politics will take a back seat. Modi is accelerating it


Except in Chattisgarh , the vote share for BJP has not been bad at all - and remember, it was a vote after 3 successive terms on state govts. The VS is likely to rise in favor of Modi, but the next 3-4 months are critical for BJP -- it has to remind the voters, that it stands for #IndiaFirst

mitr3

In the first part mitr1 I had couple of pictures of Consumer Price Index posted. That post was at a time when the fuel prices had already started "going up". For comparison, let me use this link and the Delhi prices. Jan 1st was at about 70/- , by June 14 when I had the post it had gone up to 76.43 , mid sept saw it hit 82, and end sept even 84 .

Clearly that had some impact on inflation -- what I understand from https://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/india/current-cpi-inflation-india.aspx is that from a near 4% in Apr-June quarter, it went to 5.61 in July-Sept quarter. Yet, compare it with the average inflation numbers of UPA year -- 10.8 in 2009, 12.1 in 2010 , 8.9 in 2011 , 9.3 in 2012 and 10.9 in 2013 !!

And even more interestingly go to https://tradingeconomics.com/india/food-inflation and give the 1 year option and it is interesting to see that it has kept low even in the July-Sept quarter of 2018. And overall, see the graph below, it is amply clear that Modi government has been successful in keeping it in control - much below the UPA numbers, especially since end-2016 .. 2 years straight, below 5% !

In short, a fuel price increase from about 70/- to 80/- (which is about 14%) has not caused the general commodity and food inflation to go that high. They have been in the range of 5% at max 

But do the common man really appreciate these numbers "on paper" - Is he not pained with the rising fuel prices ? Yes, rising fuel prices will impact the monthly budget of a middle class family - but by how much ? If you own a two wheeler and assume 40km a day on an average, and yet again assume that means almost 1 litre of petrol - that is about 30 litres of petrol a month - so a change of 10 Rs per litre is an additional 300/- If it is a car owning family -- well, then you are already inching closer to an "upper middle class"-- the difference may be that of 1000/-  [ 10km per litre, 1000 kms a month, i.e 100 litres.. Rs 10 additional, is a 1000/- extra]

These are average numbers, and I am not saying that a 1000/- is meager, but then the grocery (food and essential commodities) budget of such a family would typically be much higher - let us say 20K per month. A 5% increase in that would still keep it at 1000/- extra, where as a 10% increase would mean 2000 and 14% would have meant 2800/- additional per month . Play of numbers one might say, but I continue to feel that government has done a good job - well, time will tell in the form of election

So that was mostly about "Roti", and in some sense "kapda" too (well, I mean the daily commodities, not necessarily only clothing). That leaves me with "makaan" from what I had intended to cover in this part-3 . I do not have data from every city of India, but simply looking at the flat prices in Bangalore and land prices in Kerala, it is quite clear that "skyrocketing" seen during the 2010-13 time frame has long stopped. I had mentioned in my previous post that a big reason could have been the steps against black money, but another factor must also be the relatively low inflation rates 

And indirectly , the PM awaz yajana must have also contributed to this "stabilization" . Looking up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pradhan_Mantri_Awas_Yojana , of the 20 million planned by 2022 (when India celebrates 75 years of Independence after colonial rule) , only 4 million has been "approved" as of Feb 2018 .. In 4 years, the project has to scale 4 times. Yet, the very concept and initiative has given people hopes -- I personally have heard a lot of people talk about it -- and this might turn out to be one of the game changers, in not just being a social welfare scheme, but also in triggering jobs and boosting production and economy. 

In other words, this seems to be one of the biggest "investments" that the government itself is making, and its dividends should soon start paying off - in fact, it already has in controlling prices

PS: When I posted mitr2 , India was at 100 in ease of doing business index and as I post this third part, it has jumped 23 positions to 77 ! News here 

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mitr2

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"shreyaaMsi bahu vighnaani bhavanti mahataamapi" - even for the noble, when it comes to doing good things, lot of obstacles will be faced. Doing nothing is easy and invites less criticism !!

In this part-2 I had decided to take up the big-bang decisions - GST, DeMo, Aadhaar, Make-in-India, push for start-ups etc. Being not an expert at economics, I will have to piggyback on existing articles.

a) Aadhaar - Aadhaar today is not just a number. The Congress envisaged it as a means of identity but the Modi government has taken it to a different level. It has become a weapon in the hands of the poor and a powerful tool to fight entrenched black money interests. It is now a symbol of anti-corruption, anti-black money drives, a symbol of efficient allocation of welfare benefits. ref-1

b) GST - (Before 1Jul2017 opposition parties accused) the Government of pressing ahead with a half-baked measure when not everyone was ready . Yet, the Modi Government went ahead and stuck to the July 1 date for implementing the GST which has been called the single most important tax reform since Independence. A year later, the nay-sayers seem to have been silenced.... The switch from multiple taxes to a single, omnibus country-wide tax was painful but eventually successful. ..... GST regime is still a work in progress. As digitisation of the economy grows, there will be more transparency and less tax evasion and theft. ref-2 

 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/live-world-bank-ease-doing-business-india-rank-narendra-modi-2424425.html

 c) DeMo - A lot has already been said on this. There is perhaps no direct way to assess if it was a great idea or not. I go by the seemingly indirect impacts -- I know for a fact that the real estate prices that were skyrocketing during UPA-2 became stable, sometimes even went down. Inflation has kept really low as was shown in part-1 of my post. Terror funding got impacted big time ref-3 

d) Make-in-India and start-ups : Perhaps a detailed study is lacking.. There is the PwC analysis of 2018 (ref 4) but that speaks more about the initiatives in this years budget. Perhaps, these initiatives have not happened at the pace that the common man wanted, but then come on, from an economy in slumber and shatters by 2013-14, it clearly needs time to pick up. And Make-in-India is something that is not going to be easy after 70 years of being a major "technology importer". Yet, look at this

.import bill made by finished mobile phones in the country have been drastically down to $3.4 billion in 2017 and is likely to fall further to $2 billion in 2018.The import of mobile phones like Google Pixel 2 or iPhone X has been continuously going down for the few past years. In 2014, the total import of these phones stood at 205 million. In 2017, however, the total number fell to 77 million; and is expected to fall even more to 31 million in 2018. After witnessing a massive growth in sales and production of ‘Made In India’ mobile phones, the govt is expecting the production level of mobile handsets will hit 22.5 crore mark this year (ref - 5) 

As for startups, clearly there has been a big boost post 2014, with a small dip in 2016 (ref-6). A careful study will also show that these seemingly different measures are well connected to each other, with a great intent , and a pace f execution that no previous Indian govt has done before. Perhaps no other government in the world has ever achieved as some report said recently 

1) https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/yieldcurve/aadhaar-is-modis-brahmastra-for-2019-polls-will-sink-opposition/

2) http://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/success-of-gst-in-one-year/1309562

3) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/demonetisation-effect-funds-tap-turns-dry-for-terror-and-maoist-groups/articleshow/55448082.cms

4) https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/budget/2018/sectoral-analysis-india-riding-the-growth-wave.pdf

5) https://entrackr.com/2018/02/made-india-mobile-phones/

6) https://benchmark.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/fintech-a-wintech-in-india-

mitr1

MITR1: The canvas : 2014 vis-a-vis 2019 

The UPA is in the tenth year of its existence. As the general elections approach the UPA is confronted with a huge anti-incumbancy. There is a visible leadership failure. Its leadership is seen to be ineffective.  Its governance is highly inadequate. The government has run out of ideas on how to bring the economy back on rail. The UPA has added corruption as a new directive principle of state policy. The ten year misrule of the UPA reflects on how ‘The Indian story’ was effectively destroyed. After UPA’s miserable track record of governance the need for an effective and clean government are the key agendas for the forthcoming general elections

Above words are from a rediff article of July 2013 (ref:1) , almost 10 months before the General Elections 2014 . Some more digging of data will show that those 10 months did not make things any better, if anything made them worse. I remember going to the local body office to get my voter-id made .. (Yes in spite of being pro one party for years, I did not vote.. but 2014, the urge was irresistible) . Scores of youngsters, many in the most modern looking outfits, thronged the same office .. some were there for a second time wanting to find out "what happened to my application?". The sense or urgency was obvious

In spite of that obvious undercurrent, even the hard core BJP supporter perhaps never felt that on its own BJP  will cross 272 (282 at that time, but due to bye-poll losses, the number is now closer to 270). The amount of desperation and hence anti-incumbency was underestimated (who would have thought Cong will be down to a mere 44) . But perhaps more importantly, the lack of opposition unity was a bigger factor. BJP won 52% of the seats with an overall voteshare of 31%, which by the way is perfectly normal in a setup like Indian elections. Some say many of those smaller parties thought before the 2014 elections that it will be a hung result and so it can play the kingmaker role - like what happened with Kumaraswamy's JDS in 2018 Karnataka assembly

But realization has fast caught up with these parties that not uniting before the 2019 general elections, will again help BJP. Bye-elections have been a 'proving ground' for them. Be it the Loksabha elections of Gorakhpur or Kairana in UP or the assembly election of Jayanagar in Karnataka. So does that mean that its a lost cause for BJP if in 2019 too, like the bye-elections, the opposition parties unite ? After all in 2014, BJP got only 31% voteshare, so all it takes is even half of the remaining 69% to unite, isn't it ? Indeed, opposition unity will be a big challenge for BJP, but things dont work in an arithmetic fashion.. see the below analysis from the Kairana bye-election

In 2014, late BJP MP Hukum Singh secured more than 50 per cent of the vote share which was more than the combined votes of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, contesting separately. The BJP MP won by a huge margin of 2,36,988 votes. In 2017, during the UP assembly elections also the BJP maintained its hegemony and four out of five assembly constituencies of Kairana Lok Sabha seat was won by the party. But then the vote share of the BJP was 38.2% whereas the vote share of the united opposition was 57.2% with a difference of 19 %. However, in the recently concluded Kairana By-polls this massive gap of 19% has been just reduced to a mere 4.6%. Vote share of the united opposition candidate is around 51% and vote share of the BJP candidate is around 46%.  [ref-2]

One can look at it from two ways -- one, in the bye-election, BJP could not manage the >50% vote share that it got in 2014. Two, it did however manage to reduce the gap compared to the assembly election result. If anything, one thing should be clear. The voting patterns have become so complex that no psephologist can predict what is going on. Which is where perhaps the unspoken, unwritten Amit Shah mantra makes sense .. keep trying to maximize the vote share...  remember Gujarat 2017 -  see pic-1 . True BJP could not garner the 60% it got in 2014LS, but if it had not been able to make that 1.5% or so improvement over 2012, it may have fallen short of majority.. and remember, even a seat or two short of majority, its likely that others will grab power. 

Modi's target for 2019 should then be 50% voteshare... Wow, that sounds crazy isnt it ? Increase the vote for BJP from 31% to 50% .. a jump by 2/3. Forget 50%, isn't even 40% a day dream -- in 2014, in spite of such desperate situation, BJP could get only 31%. In 2019, there will be "anti-incumbency" too.. 

And already there is the "middle class" that is not happy for not raising the tax slabs to its expectations.. for not reducing the fuel prices when global prices fell and so on .. and the hindutva class for the "govt not doing enough for the hindu causes".. and indeed the "dont need reasons, will never vote BJP" class too

The counter narrative seems to be predominantly rooted in the TINA or RITA  arguments. That there is no dependable alternative.. or that Rahul is the alternative..  There surely is a big percentage of people, for whom definitely the govt has done better that UPA, and feel that if Modi isnt relected, and Cong or a coalition comes to power, it will be "back to square one". In other words, the line that "BJP has not given me enough reasons to vote for it in 2019, but Cong has given me more than enough reasons that I will vote for BJP again in 2019". I go one step more - does Modi deserve to be re-elected on its merits?

I have followed politics and governments in India from Sep 1989 onwards.. so about to complete 29 years. Of all the governments I have seen in that span, I absolutely have no doubt that the current govt is #1 .. Its an inner conviction that no amount of counter propaganda can change, but can I express myself to convince the following a) voted for Modi in 2014, but thinking of opposition or NOTA in 2019 .. b) did not vote in 2014, perhaps not even made a voter-card .. c) Voted against BJP in 2014 .. Clearly it gets tougher from a to c. 

But here I attempt.. a 10 part series - Merit Is The Reason (MITR) -to vote for BJP/Modi in 2019. In the comments section, I post what I plan for Part2-10, but for the impatient ones, I leave you with one chart for now, comparing inflation percentages of UPA-2 vs "NDA-2"(i.e Modi) .. see pic-2

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1) http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-is-the-congress-trying-to-communalise-2014-elections/20130722.htm

2) https://rightlog.in/2018/06/bjp-kairana-elections-congress-01/ 

3) Pic-1 from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/gujarat-verdict-explained-bjp-gains-1-25-in-vote-share-than-2012-but-loses-16-seats-heres-why/articleshow/62126440.cms

4) Pic-2 from http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/india/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-india.aspx

The 72 percent vote

5-days and a few hours after this post, Karnataka will go for elections

Much water has flowed in Kaveri since my last blog post. From a situation of "Congress will be the biggest party with close to 100, but may need JDS help", it went to 90-90 (neck and neck) in an opinion poll a few weeks back and now to ~105 for BJP and ~75 for Congress ..

I feel that many things have gone right for BJP in the last few weeks.. BSY is not running a thump-chesting campaign, instead has been much more grounded. His not giving ticket to his son, has been a moral victory, especially as Siddhu has actually given to his son..  The fact that Siddhu, State cong and even central Cong are attacking "Reddy brothers" on corruption, and not BSY , perhaps is testimony that BSY has gotten over the allegations that were against him last time. And he has very tactfully let Amit Shah reply to the "Reddy Brothers are corrupt" allegation, who has simply in his style categorically stated "The two Reddy brothers who are contesting have no cases against them".. Yea, some times speaking just the enough words is an art .. and Shah indeed has mastered it

The Congress has made blunder after blunder -- first of all, campaigning started too early.. secondly, Siddhu started developing cold feet and decided to contest a second seat .. (which he in turn kept  "secret" for many days). While in Chamundeswari BJP perhaps has decided to let JDS take its "badla" on Siddhu, by fielding SriRamulu in Badami, it made sure, if anything Siddhu will have to sweat it out there also, and so will get lesser time to focus on rest of the state. And finally, Rahul Gandhi, in his own style that no others can match, messed up what could have been a natural advantage to Congress (did I not see a news that state Cong leaders were begging him not to come ?)

But wait, the game is not over yet ... A heavy rain on May12, and its likely that lesser BJP voters may go out than lesser Cong voters .. So I tend to believe that a clear majority for BJP will depend on  72% voter turn out ... (I basically mean high voter turn out.. 72 is a play of numbers)

And here is my "72% reason" to vote..  As the Buddhist saying goes, Dhamma, Sangha and Buddha are important.. Dhamma is BJP's principles, for which I give it a 30 out of 40 ..  Sangha is the "group of people from BJP from the state".. this includes people whom I personally know, and the existing MLAs, corporators etc.. I give them a 20 on 30 ..  Buddha is a combination of Modi (Center), BSY (State), and the MLA candidate.. cos all three matter.. I give 15 on 20 (of course, Modi does well..).. and finally the "others" is about manifesto and how well BJP has "presented" itself etc and I give them a 7 out of 10 ... that adds up as 72% .... and this by the way, is my 272nd blog post !!

PS: I would vote only if the "threshold" of 70 is crossed.. It seems to in this case.. it did not, in BBMP elections and hence I did not vote !



   

An open request to Shri B S Yeddyurappa

Shri B S Yeddyurappaji, Namaste

Let me give a brief background about myself -  I did BTech from IIT Madras, MS from Univ of Maryland, was there in US for about 7 years before returning to India in 2008 . I was in Chennai 2008-2012 and moved to Bengaluru in early 2012. So it has now been 6 years in Bengaluru 

I have been a keen follower of Indian politics from the time of Ayodhya movement - I have keenly watched every General election since (and including) 1989, when I was 10yrs old, and many state elections. If being Nationalist means being pro-BJP, then I will gladly accept that I am one. However, even after returning to India in 2008, I never voted in an election until the general election of 2014

By the two paragraphs above, it must be obvious that during the last Karnataka Assembly election of 2013, I was there in Bengaluru, but did not vote. If I were to vote, in the present political scenario, it would be for the BJP, but in 2013, I simply did not feel that the work done by the BJP govt for 2008-2013 merited it to be voted back to power. Let me in fact rewind to 2008 - if I remember it right, you had indeed created history by winning against Bangarappa who had the backing of both INC and JDS . You had for the first time helped BJP gain majority in a south Indian state. The expectations were high, but I regret to say that the general impression is that it was not lived up to

I admit that by the time I moved to Bengaluru in early 2012, you were no more the ChiefMinister. I also learn from some articles that many of the corruption charges against you eventually did not stand legal scrutiny .. I have not studied them in detail, but let me give you the benefit of doubt and stick to the dictum that "Not guilty until proven guilty". But the fact remains that you had not instilled confidence on two counts --> a) that you are above corruption and b) you will deliver on vikaas

Did I have that hope when I voted for NarendraModi in 2014 ? Yes, absolutely. Do I still have that confidence to vote for him again in 2019 ? Yes, double absolutely . In fact I am hoping to do a blog post on "It is not RITA (Rahul Is The Alternative) or TINA (There Is No Alternative) because of which one should vote for Narendra Modi, but MITR - Merit Is The Reason". As I said, I have analyzed politics in India for close to 30 years now, and I will pitch Modi govt as the best so far.

 It is the conviction that Modi is not just incorruptible himself, but will try to prevent it wherever he can, that makes me comfortable voting again in 2019. It is the perception that he has, is and will try his best for vikaas (by the way, I saw that first hand during a 7-day trip to NorthEast) that makes me put my weight behind him - the 50 things that couldn't be achieved doesn't matter to me as long as you tried , and as long as there are 50 other things that you actually achieved with your hard work. The problem with previous BJP Karnataka state govt was that it gave the impression that it did not even try - I could clearly experience that in the 15months or so I was in Bengaluru before the 2013 state elections. Excuses of what happened then are now irrelevant, except for "lessons learned"

My Kannada friends say you are the CM face (even if unofficial) of BJP this time. I wish you good luck, and I am willing to vote this time - given that the current Congress government has even been a greater disappointment and almost a disaster for the state of Karnataka and city of Bengaluru - but I hope you wont disappoint this time. Please be a true leader, in delivering on holistic development, in being connected to the people, and eventually also in nurturing new and young talent to take over

The next two months leading up to the elections, I will watch your and your party's promises and priorities keenly, contribute with ideas where I can, and if I feel confident, my vote is for you

   

Sanskrit in Parliament

While I tweeted this - https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/953622076522340362 - I wanted to a post on the instances in which Sanskrit has been spoken in Parliament ( Indian .. for now ) debates

Here is from a random search, I hope that the list grows as I come to know more .. and in future

1)  http://parliamentofindia.nic.in/ls/debates/vol7p20a.htm Shri H V Kamath quotes MahaBharata 5.35.49 ..  see http://www.sacred-texts.com/hin/mbs/mbs05035.htm 

2) na bheetO maranaadasmi .. Vajpayee, 1996 May-June .. see https://kalpanamuzumdar.wordpress.com/tag/dooshita/ or https://www.indianscriptures.com/gems-subhashitah-part-1/

(Clearly, Vajpayee's is perhaps much more natural and correct pronunciation) 

3)  amantraM akSharam naasti .. see my previous blogpost http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2006/01/more-of-my-fav-shlokas.html (it should have been amantram akSharaM ... etc)

4) jaanaami dharmam na cha mE pravRuttiH | jaanaamyadharmam na cha mE nivRuttiH ||

reposting an old one

It is said that Shloka comes out of Shoka (as in Ramayana). Not a shloka, but here is an old poem, written at a time when I was going through a lot of issues, academically and otherwise.. posted once in Jan 2006, posting again after 12 years with some minor updates.. - "certainly uncertain"

from: http://quotesonimages.com/i/the-only-constant-is-uncertainty-quotes-9337

As a little kid when time is all what you had
Happy you were making houses of card
And little did you think while pulling each one
That uncertainty is life’s only fun

Hopes you keep, even as you see others suffer
Life sure has for me better things to offer
Soon you realize that in the world that’s real
Uncertainty is the only truth, that's never partial

When the road you took seems so uphill
You pray and pray for a stronger will
Sure for stretches you will have some one
But forever uncertainty is your only companion

Oft you find yourself doing a thankless job
Many a time does it make you sob
And yet there is hardly a chance you want to miss
For uncertainty is life's only promise

And one fine moment you find yourself enjoy
For the seers of the yore knew you are nothing but joy
And thankful you are for those moments you find
For uncertainty is life's only background

tip up for future fane

Note: fane in archaic English means temple. This is in some sense "part2" of previous post

16 May 2014 : A day when many of the 35+ "RW" activists' belief got shattered - in a pleasant way. Many of us had deep within felt, in our lifetime we will not see a RW party like BJP winning on its own - it is going to be either a Congress led coalition, or a BJP led, limited by allies coalition..

By noon that day, it was clear - history was being made, notions were being rewritten.. I had taken leave that day, at home switching my eyes between TV and internet to get the latest.. When it became clear that it was a comfortable majority on its own, and a thumping one for NDA, I was emotionally overwhelmed.. Spoke to my friend in US with whom I had done many of my activism over there .. His almost immediate reaction was "Tu iske chakkar me mat pad..." ... (Do not get swept away by this) ... He continued ... "Our responsibility and work has only increased.. Govt or not, we have work to do..." .. I would not claim that I put his words into practice, but I can say, he had it spot on..

Flashback further: 2004 general elections.. I was in US .. It was sleeping time by the time counting started, but then work up the next day for a shock.. Vajpayee had lost .. I have in some of my previous posts analyzed this one, so dont want to repeat it.. but two quick points (a) BJP's tally went from 182 to 138 (24% reduction), and its allies nosedived from about 90 seats to 47 or so - almost 50%
(b) While in power, BJP had no strong Party Presidents (Khushabhau Thakre, Bangaru Lakshman, Jana Krishnamurthy and Venkaiah Naidu -- none of whom had great organizational capabilities )

On both the above counts, 2019 is different from 2004 .. Amit Shah continues to aim at a big number on its own, and he has been to nook and corner of this country, to get even that single seat that he can swing his way, to compensate for possible losses due to anti-incumbency.. I could see the effect in NE

Yet, there is the other major factor -- "disenchantment" among BJP supporters/Sangh itself.. In many ways, this group was disappointed in 2004 .. India's not at all convincing reply to the IC-814 hijack episode, the increase in Haj subsidy (which earned PM the name "Haj"payee among sangh circles), Vajpayee's perceived ill health (his pause between words had become really long), and no progress on the original core issues of BJP - Ayodhya, UCC and Article 370 .. Now, at a not-so-deep level, let me quickly categorize those who would have voted for BJP in 2014 -- a) hard-core supporters, come what may they will vote BJP (as long as no major messups).. b) issue based BJP supporters c) BJP supporters (even internet activists), normally lazy to vote, but 2014 saw them vote d) disenchanted congress/other-party voters  e) no real political inclination, but vote based on aspirations/hopes


In some ways, people have started comparing 2019 to 2004 -- there has been an increased feeling that "Hindu issues" have not been addressed enough... temples have not been freed from governments, whip has not been cracked enough on "conversionists" etc .. I think the feeling is more in the b or c category (though, I must admit, in reality it is not as black and white). I do not mean to criticize these folks, they do have a "right to complain", but at the same time, more often than not, they seem to look at the governments achievements (or the lack of it) through only 1 or 2 issues.. Just imagine for a second, this is a country of 125 crore.. with such diversity and complexity.. there is NO WAY you can satisfy one and all.. The Indian PMs job, if sincerely executed, is one of the toughest jobs on earth... And yet, in my opinion (and NOT as a passive onlooker, but having had my eyes, ears and brains closely glued to Indian politics for 28 years now), I will confidently say that this has been the best government so far in 30 years .. Could it have been better ? May be, but don't kill "good" for "ideal"

In many cases, for example when an otherwise pro-BJP person becomes disenchanted, say on twitter, many of the comments will be along the lines of "think of the alternate.. you want to bring Congress back to power ?" .. While I totally agree that such a situation will throw India back by yet another 10 years (the damage caused because of which will take years to repair), I will also say that TINA (There is No other good alternative) is not the only reason that Modi should be elected back in 2019.. On many many counts, it is "swayameva mrugendrataa" for this govt - deserves on its merit ..

Though I am no one really to do so, I have a little piece of advise for the pro-Hindu writers and activists -- I know that on many issues you feel govt did not do what it could, especially core Hindu issues.. and it is all fair to have brought those up for the last 3-4 years in a spirit of constructive criticism .. but perhaps, for the next one year, I would advise caution -- there will be many young generation folks, new voters, getting active within the next year or so ..  a criticism on a particular issue, if not understood in the proper context, can easily misguide them.. So why not, for the next one year, help the govt highlight its real achievements (publicly) and point out deficiencies (privately)

To those twitter activists who are still "disenchanted", I would say, take a break, go do some seva work - may be go help some poor children - look at their faces and think "What should I do, so that they have a bright future ?" .. and I sincerely believe you will find your answer and next steps...

trip down memory lane

A few days back, on twitter, some of the threads ended up as a discussion on the Nationalists writers on rediff of the early 2000s - https://twitter.com/RajeevSrinivasa/status/942200530301886464 and https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/942976110345707520 for example . That sent me down some nostalgic memories.. I had in a previous post ( here ) touched upon some aspects of my early political learning and leaning, but here I attempt to fill a few more gaps.. By the way, I do not use the words right wing and nationalist in a US context.. its vastly different..

So it was when I was about 10 yrs or so, around the year 1990, that the Ayodhya movement got me interested in politics. It was also the time when election related stuff --> predictions and discussions before the election ; almost live coverage during the counting day ; and post-results analysis --> started on TV (DD at that time). I remember being glued on to many of them, immaterial of whether my party of interest would be there or not .. Till I got into IIT, (that is at 17+) the focus was much on academics, so politics was just a side interest - on and off..

cartoon from: https://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/floppies.asp 

IIT Madras changed me in many ways.. from a person who would take part in "individual competitions" only because I inherently did not "trust" team work, I quickly transformed into someone who learned the importance of "sangha" .. thanks to the voluntary organizations I was part of at IITM .. I still "maintained" my own activist-identify as well though, as I continued to do things even outside the organization, in an individual capacity .. some of them had a secretive nature too, which I enjoyed.. for example, I single-handedly did some "counter-propaganda" work, and would silently listen into the hostel-mess discussions "who dunnit" .. what I sensed at IIT was that there was an overall "tilt to the right" among the youth, but the ones who would really "do something" were rare -- partly the "self" being higher in priority, and partly perhaps the shyness of being labelled. 

 

The lessons learned and in some sense the "training" received from IITM was of immense help for the almost 6 yrs (out of 7) of active volunteerism while in US .. I will not elaborate on the "ground work" -- suffice to say that when I look back, I feel happy, for I must be among a handful of Indians who would have gotten an opportunity to do that kind of work (in 3 "main areas" I would say).. Not to say that those 6 yrs (and the 4yrs at IITM) are "good enough" and I will stop working.. but I do tell myself, those 10yrs I have done so much, that I wont regret if I die this very moment.. and yes, I continue to do what I can -- the 9.5yrs so far, after I returned to India -- perhaps I have done work equivalent to may be just 1 yr worth of of the scale I did for those 10 yrs, but then I take it as a bonus

That was a bit too much bragging about myself :-) .. let me get back to the point of discussion of those twitter threads .. yes, those early 2000s when I was in US, I used to look fwd for those articles from Varsha, Rajeev et al.. those used to the "extra adrenaline"...  It used to appear as a "losing battle", with almost 99% of main stream media towing a line that was not healthy for India.. (for a brief period, my housemates and I subscribed for Washington Post, and seeing Rama Lakshmi spew venom, I decided to not pay for it any more..  such pathetic articles were written about India .. indeed , the root was the Indian media outlets themselves which always used to paint a grim picture ) . Added to that was the feeling that a vast majority of the english educated youth did not care - be it in US or in India..  But years thence, looking back, it appears that there was a silent new generation itself being built up .. 

A parallel stream to Varsha and Rajeev were the likes of Dr Kalyanaraman, Vishal Agarwal and so on (Rajiv Malhotra , in my opinion, for a long long time was too "academic", he got into an "activist" mode only recently) and the "voice of india" publications...  Not to miss out on the "non-Indian" contributors there -- David Frawley,  Koenraad Elst , Yvette Rosser and so on ... So where does "sangh" fall into all this.. Well, intellectualism is a world that sangh "office-bearers" are happy to take a back seat on...  If I remember it right, there is a scene in Savarkar movie where Golwalkar meets Savarkar and says "Many things I thought in my mind, you wrote it.." :-) ....  (FYI, I have my technical differences with Savarkar, like on "pitrubhu", but thats for another day). The sangh  however subtly did the logistical help for dissemination, even when some of these right wing intellectuals did not fully agree with it --- it even raised funds during some of their ill health 

 courtesy: suneesh @Ksuneesh86

And now, after a decade of all that, when I try to get more active on twitter, I realize - it was not just me... across India, across US,.. across the globe, there were the pro-right Indians like me.. struggled through the apparent solitude (well may be not solitude, but an apparent disinterest in the vast majority that we were trying to "activate") at one time..  But all that effort is now paying off .. Every day on twitter I keep finding more and more twitter handles, not hesitant to openly declare their "RW" inclinations... some like me may still remain semi-anonymous (partly may be the subconscious impact of the kind of circumstances that I grew up where pro-RW meant inviting sharp looks... and partly may be simply because I like being a "voice without a form"...) .... And the interesting part is that many of those twitter activists are young.. and many are ladies/girls ..  

And for this new generation, the means may be different, even the language may be slightly different -- but one can see, the core is the same..... same as of those handful yet powerful writers who inspired the "half-generation" after them ..  and these folks seem to correctly realize that if they are not on the "right-wing" they could end up being "left-out" or even being on the "wrong-wing" :-)