late-a vandaalum

Almost exactly 9 years ago, I had a post http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html?m=0 which is a nutshell said, if NDA had to have any chance in the 2009 general elections, it needed two south indian superstars - Chiranjeevi and Rajanikanth

Since then Chirajeevi floated his own party (PrajaRajyamParty), flopped and merged in Congress

Rajani waited, and finally today - the last day of 2017 - announces his plan to plunge into politics. Will he end up the Chiranjeevi way ? Well, time alone will tell, but here are some of my quick points

1) TN is desperately looking for a leader.. AIADMK is in shambles, Stalin has not been able to replicate his Father's persona (whether one agress his with Karunadhi's life and views or not...)

2) In his own ways, Rajani has been socially active for many years.. and have taken his stance on some issues at least... In other words, he may not be as much "only-air-no-substance" as Chiru

Comment: The late Sri Swami Dayananda Saraswati may have been the "link" and connecting factor

 So why did he wait so long ? Like it or not, he may have wanted the two "seniors" - Jaya and Karuna - to be off the scene.. and situation come to a stage where it is almost a TINA - there is no alternative .. that that, the TINA, is what, if anything, going to give him a chance to not end up the Chiru way


 

bend it like amit shah

As I type this, the election commission website shows 95 wins , 4 leads and a vote share of 49.1% for BJP in Gujarat state election. Himachal has it 34 + 10 and 48.7% respectively

Year 2017 ends with BJP ruling 14 states, its allies in 5, Congress in 4, left in 2, AIADMK, TRS, TMC, BJD and AAP in one each. In other words 19 vs 11 for NDA - impressive

Note: above pic found on twitter

Look at it from another angle, given that Karnataka could swing its way next year (more on that later), from Kerala, draw a line through "east coast" - that is where BJP is not in rule (I mean TN, Telengana, even AP, Odisha, WB, Meghalaya,Tripura), apart from Punjab/Delhi  . I remember Modi once referring to the need of taking Vikas to the eastern belt like BJP did to the west :-)

 So now, what happened in Gujarat ? Caste ? GST ? .. some are worried that the caste factor is again creeping in, RaGa's soft hindutva is working and so on. Well, just like in any election, there must have been a combination of complex issues here as well, but for me a few points stood out

1) Though there has been an impact in the Saurashtra-Kutch region , where most say the "Patels" (and I dont know the nuances) went against BJP, the over all vote-share of BJP has actually gone up from the 2012 assembly elections by 1.2% ( 47.9% in 2012 ; 49.1% as of now on ECI website)

 

So, even if there had been a "swing-away" enough to make BJP lose about 12 seats in that region, there seems to have been a "swing-towards" BJP too - is that the rest of the Hindu's consolidating to avoid quota being given to Patels ? .... but not good enough to give seat advantage because BJP had already "maximised" in those regions, like in south-gujarat ?

2) Congress too seems to have gained about 1.5% vote share -- that points to the fact that opposition was less fragmented compared to last time (in other words , "others" percentage has reduced). But the 0.3% difference in the amount of gain of vote share was good enough to take away 16 seats from BJP. Well, that is how these elections work, it is not the over all vote share that counts at the end of the day.  In other words, it is much more tougher to win an election - that is why Amit Shahs are special

What are the lessons learned ? first and foremost, BJP needs a charismatic local leader in Gujarat -- well, to some extend one must sympathize with those who are in the hot seat of Gujarat CM ... the person is taking over from Modi -- people have so much expectations.. remember, unlike MP or Chattisgarh which will be going to elections next year where Shivraj Chouhan and Raman Singh have already faced elections as CM candidates, Vijay Rupani was facing this election as an incumbent CM for the first time. But then now is the time - for Rupani or whoever is elected as Gujarat CM - to start again from the scratch, with the new baseline of state level expectations, and deliver well. I hope the BJP leaders do not hide behind a simple "Patels went against us" explanation and fall in to the same trap as Congress fell, of ignoring the development and local-leader factors

HP too has thrown up a surprise in "defeating" Dhumal - I must say the electorate is getting smarter and smarter .. they know how to distinguish "person" and "party" ; "state" and "central"

At the door steps of 2018 with elections due in 4 major states, many states in north-east .. it is getting clearer and clearer - "elections are to be fought and won ; no body gives them to you on a platter"

Brain says "simultaneous elections" - because that is what saves money, makes efficient state-center govt combinations.. but mind says - keep it like this .. As Ravi Shankar Prasad mentioned on TimesNow "Elections are the festivals of democracy".. and who doesn't like small small festivals every year and a big one in the fifth .. as opposed to all small ones and the big one combined into one 

the blacks and whites of life

For the past 3-4 weeks, I have been busy organizing a 1-day SpokenSanskrit workshop in Bangalore. These are some random points from the same

0) Normally Samskrita-Bharati does 10-day workshop --> 1.5-2hrs each day , totaling 15-20hrs. This sometimes becomes not-so-easy for the working class to attend. Assume either the attendee or the teacher has to commute 30mins for the workshop one-way.. for a 15hr workshop, he/she is ending up commuting a total of 10hrs (1hr each day, X 10 days). This becomes all the more important in a city like Bangalore where traffic is such a problem.. and then the issue of continuity - a person drops for 1-day, the next day he is a bit hesitant to go.. and so on... Many of SamskritaBharati's 10-day workshops, if starts with 2x people, is likely to reduce to x or even sometimes less than x, by the last day .. NOT because the classes aren't interesting , but mainly due to "logistics"..

1) While in US, some of us came up with the idea of weekend workshop - either 2 saturdays, or 2 sundays - each day about 9am to 6pm.. (about 12-14 hrs of class, but there is an efficiency factor because of the continuity that makes it equivalent to a 15hr class). I have been part of such successful workshops in US .. and then successfully experimented this in Chennai (with a good percentage of "IT crowd" ) about 6 -7 years back. Of course, we have found that here too, on the second day (i.e the second weekend) of the workshop, the numbers reduce.. but going by the commute math, for 15hrs of class, the attendee/teacher has to travel only 30mins X 4 times -- i.e 2hrs .. 20% of the 10-day one

2) For Bangalore however, we decided to experiment with a 1-day "jump-start" (as one of my friends later called it...) .. just one-day 9am to 6pm .. I booked an a/c hall, in the center of a well-known place, put up a blog(web-page) by Oct29 or so.. with a google form to register..  workshop was on Nov19, so I had 3-weeks to publicize.. 1st and 3rd week, I did quite a bit of online campaign, as well as "print-out" campaign (second week, I diverted my attention to another "cause", partly for the need of it, and partly as I have learned from experience that if I continuously campaigned for 3-weeks, I would get so attached, and "so-mad" if something disappointing happens.. so needed a "break" in between. ) Below is the "web-site" hits graph, which also reflects this "dip-in-second-week"

3) Workshop was free, but prior registration was requested, either online, or through phone.. Within the 3 weeks, there were approximately 2200 hits, (about 1500 of it from India.. out of that my guess is about 1100 may be from Bangalore). By the time we closed registration, we had 44 (i.e 4%) . I knew from experience that only 60% would show up -- and that is exactly what happened.. 28 people before lunch, and 22 till the end. Overall ( hall, publicity, some snacks/juice during the workshop, other incidentals), the expense was 8000-9000 rupees, which I took as a donation towards the cause . If this were a "500 rupee per registrant"event, it is likely that registrants/attendees would be more

4) As with most of these events, there were so many interesting "learning".. While exploring a place for venue, some told me "great idea, I will surely come.. ".. or "many of my friends said they will come if it is on a weekend"...  Alas, as the registration opened, none of them registered... the reason given by some was that it is about 20-30 mins drive from where they stay.. they wanted it at their door-step ... and the question from many who called me was, when are you organizing at my place.. Boy, for a whole day event, you can't commute even for 30min + 30mins ? Interesting.... But, as anything in life -- the black and white aspect -- there were some who commuted 1hr+ and came also..

5) And then there are some people, esp whom you frequently meet in office or in your apartment, who keeps telling you "I am really interested".. there are some to whom I have suggested 3 or 4 events before .. and every time when the actual event neared the answer was "sorry, today I am not available" -- same this time, in spite of it being in some of their door steps.. well, yet again, I can only say, let me remove you from my "interested" list. First time - may be inconvenience.. second time too may be.. third time and fourth time... well, if you are not showing up, it simply means it is either way  down in your priority.. or it was just a show-off ..(and interestingly, some of my friends are experts at preaching/criticizing..but not doing anything useful for others...  and some are even of the type who I feel like asking "is there anyone or any organization that you find anything positive about at all ? ") ...  and by mentally removing from my "interested" list, at least I will not feel guilty next time that "oh, I forgot to inform you about it".. And again, the white part.. there are some who you never thought might be interested, but eventually end up attending and some even sitting till the end

6)  By the way, don't ever assume that the event was a one-man show.. (my previous points may have made it appear so.. apologies).. As usual, from the SamskritaBharati volunteer/teacher side, and from unexpected quarters too, help came aplenty .. there were 3 teachers, at least 2 other volunteers who majorly helped on the day of the event, bunch of attendees, who came as early as 8.30am and offered help and many who helped with publicity.. and I am not too worried about the 96% who saw the website, but did not register.. the 40% who registered and did not show up.. "the news reached them"

Finally, let me end with a small incident..   about 4 or 5 days before the workshop, the registration number was at about 20 .. and with the 60% logic, that meant 12 would show up... for a few hours that day, I felt a bit let down... in spite of 2 weeks of publicity,  that is all what I got ? I forgot the basics of "nishkaamakarma"..and started considering "no more effort from my side, will leave it to destiny" and then something unexpected happened.. that very night, I got pinged on whatsapp from an unknown number.. and in samskritam, the lady said "you taught me samskritam, remember me ?" (the chat was in samskritam).. for a moment I thought it was a case of mistaken identity.. there are at least 2 samskritabharati teachers that I know in Bangalore with my name.. and I am not a teacher per se - I do not teach workshops... I only organize them.. I can run the "follow-up classes"  .. and I could not recognize her profile picture on whatsapp.. (well, I am bad with memory-of-faces in general) so I asked her "are you sure it was me?" .. she insisted it was me... and slowly came the details.., all in samskritam..  6-7 yrs back, in Chennai, she was an IITM student at that time.. I am not sure if she attended the weekend workshop or the 10-day workshop ... post that, I used to conduct follow-up classes at my house every weekend.. and she was part of that.. slowly I remembered her name.. and she typed "I am delighted you remember my name" (again, in samskritam).. I simply did not have words to tell her my feeling at that time -- all I can tell is "naShTOmOhaH .. smritirlabdhaH" ... that moment I decided, I am not worried about the registration numbers, I have 4-5 more days to go, let me try my best.. what if, it is the person who hears about this in the 11th hour, comes, attends, and keeps up the learning and who will, may be ping me yet another 6 years later (if I am still alive, that is), and tells me "you taught me samskritam", though I never did, and I was "nimittamaatram" 

the final lap of state elections 2017

State election fever is slowly starting to grip India again. So far this is the 2017 state election tally

 

 The ones left are HP and Gujarat. 

1) HP: Looks like RaGa has already given this up...- which is bad news for BJP because after all there is no better campaigner for the BJP than RaGa :-) .. but BJP likely to wrest it from Cong 

2) Gujarat: Interesting AAP seems to have given up and shifted focus (or rather trying their "testing waters" in MP now) ... and may be the Gujarat AAP strategy is part of the "gharvapsi" to Congress so that opposition(to BJP) votes do not split -see my Gurdaspur example https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/919552766002970625 . And then all the chotta leaders who have popped (none of who, I have heard, talk any sense till date). It is likely that BJP will retain, though majority may reduce - but more importantly BJP Gujarat has to start worrying about grooming next-Gen state leaders a la Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Raman Singh who can retain power with not so much help from Modi 

Congress on the other hand is getting desperate - knowing Modi is invincible , they are attacking his two key aides in the name of their sons.. clearly, it is noise without substance generated before the election, and meant to subside after the elections. Will it cut ice with people of Gujarat ? less likely.. and it is likely that despite all dirty tricks, Congress will lose.. and yet again go into depression mode

I do not have too much expertise and ground level knowledge on these states, so my predictions above are more of gut-feeling. Now, I tend to "believe" in a alternate-year-is-good logic.. end-of 2013 to 2014 was good for BJP  - center as well as states like Maharashtra, Jharkhand, etc etc - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_elections_in_India#Legislative_Assembly_elections

2015 not so go good with Bihar and Delhi - though Bihar is back in NDA kitty 

2016 - well, was somewhat of a neutral/good year - Kerala/WB/TN are states with not much at stake for BJP... Whether 2017 would be good for BJP, mainly depended on UP .. and there was magic.. If BJP retains Gujarat, I will mark 2017 as a good year for BJP (with "small" losses in Punjab state elections and LokSabha bye-elections). But then 2018, may not be so good for BJP... Karnataka --> is not going to be easy (I will cover in future posts), so also the currently in kitty Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/MP (in my opinion, the toughest is listed first). But then, that is okay, some sort of a set-back is needed before vigorously getting back in 2019 - read my earlier posts http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2013/12/why-36-may-be-better-than-4.html and followed by http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2014/05/how-battle-was-won-and-why-war-still.html (part2)

If not for the Muslim League

This is a follow up post to the previous one . I was just curious to know if the Congress Party (INC) on its own won a majority in Kerala in the last 30-years. If my numbers are correct, its a big NO

And what is more startling, its % of seats out of the total has been reducing - both for the "UDF winning cycle" (shaded in green) and for the "UDF losing cycle". And in the latest election, Congress party doesn't even have a simple majority in UDF itself -allies have. CongressMuktKerala in offing ?

the Kerala voting pattern

One question I keep facing from some friends is why doesn't BJP do big in Kerala. With the Vengara by-election results, the same questions have been raised - fact is, in such a hugely Muslim dominated constituency, BJP never stood a chance - though decline in its votes warrants introspection

There are many reasons why BJP doesn't fully click in Kerala - let me give the demographic one now

The above is my "theory" or "hypothesis" as applicable for 2014/16 - because it is not based on any major statistical analysis or data - just out of my understanding of Kerala. Red is the left and allies (LDF) , green is Congress and allies(UDF)  and saffron BJP and its allies (NDA). The Hindu, Christian and Muslim numbers may not exactly match the numbers given at http://infoelections.com/infoelection/index.php/kerala/7433-caste-religion-wise-population-in-kerala.html but that one are 2011 numbers and I don't fully trust them. So I will go with my 52-28-20 numbers.

Now, what I have shown is an almost "solid base" - the minimum that these parties will get. Almost 18% are "swing and others". By swing I mean people who are not solid - it doesn't necessarily mean that the whole swing will be a state-wide phenomenon. Lot of local factors and even "personal" factors play in. In 2016 assembly elections LDF got ~6% of that "swing" (so it got ~43%), UDF got ~4% (so it got ~39%), NDA got about 5% (so it got ~15%) and the 3% went to others (total 3%)

Indeed, there are pockets like Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad , Kasargod where BJP many times comes a close second.. But then that is far from making a solid impact in Kerala. Unless something majorly changes, in the 2021 assembly elections too, BJP may not be part of "deciding who rules"

So then, what is its future ? Well, let us purely look at the Hindu votes - I have split it as 50% left, 20% UDF, 18% NDA and 16% swing. BJP's future will depend on how much they can "tap into"

1) The Hindu votes - and naturally, the biggest "sufferers" will be the left, which is why wherever BJP starts getting traction, the left starts violence. And from what I know, the pro-BJP votes from Hindus cuts across caste lines ( The RSS worker brutally murdered by left's goondas recently was from the SC Pulaya community as per https://scroll.in/article/845869/rss-workers-murder-throws-light-on-growing-competitive-politics-in-keralas-dalit-neighbourhoods indeed, no "self-proclaimed champions of Dalits" seemed to even bother or pretended that they did not know)

In my opinion, there is some reasons due to which the flow of cadres between left and BJP is more 'natural' - first both are cadre based parties, not-so-much family-based parties, both have core "sociological ideology" -- in fact, many of the Hindu-communists (not an oxymoron when it comes to Kerala) are religious too.. I keep saying, if you take a poll among the Sabarimala going Hindus, left party may win hands down ! The big differences between the left and BJP are in their views of Nationalism and minority appeasement -- for the latter, the left in Kerala is worse than Congress (whatever Hindu votes the left loses to BJP, it tries to make up by getting Muslim votes)

How about swinging Hindu-Congress votes to BJP.. well it depends.. Most of the Hindu-Congress voters are still there just because a) their forefathers were Congress b) they are anti-communists and just don't feel confident enough that BJP can beat the left c) no "ideology", so de facto Congress

So in my opinion, from that "solid" (as I mentioned thats the 2014/16 situation) 25 + 10, at best, may be by 2026, BJP may be able to get 10 more - that will still take it to their best of 15 + 10 = 25 (and that assuming it doesn't lose much from the 15% it got in 2016 ). Chances of that 25% itself appears bleak (unless a major game changing local leader or issue arises).. and even if it happens, the LDF + UDF with a 70-75% can prevent the BJP from getting significant seats (already happening locally)

2) non-Hindu votes:  Getting and non-trivial percentage of Muslim votes is out of question in the near future. This is one reason BJP tries to reach out to the predominantly Christian Kerala Congress. In my opinion that may not be a good idea in the long term. Kerala Congress - with umpteen factions - in general has lot of corruption issues and in some sense follows the basic ideology of Congress - that politics is to enhance ones own family and to eat away public money. What BJP may need to do is to slowly attract the section of the Christians who sees "logic", who are very Nationalistic, and many of whom respect and even practice some aspects of Hinduism.

Many christian families teach their children classical dance and music - a section of the Hindutva folks view this as inculturation as a means for more conversions.. May be some do it for this sake, but a good amount of Christians do it because they respect the Hindu traditions and culture.

Well, easy said than done, some might say.. and with all this too, at best you can get a "5" out of 20. And by the time you get that 25+5 = 30% , the Hindu population may have already come below 50% and the whole arithmetic may change. So yes, catch-22 it is, but there is no option with the BJP except to patiently keep trying -- unless a local messiah or issue is string enough for a "revolution"

20 years since Pinarayi Vijayan visited US and 3 other countries

Here is an interview from 1997 Aug 1 - https://www.destination-kerala.com/1997/08/01/kerala-evokes-widespread-interest-abroad-says-cm-nayanar/ of the then communist CM of Kerala

I am adding a screenshot here, just for the records and looking at some of the things there, just cannot stop laughing - self-declared US haters ("anti-capitalists") on a trip to Niagra Falls to study the possibility of  power generation from Athirappilly Falls in Kerala - and 20 years since, not only has that materialized, neither do I see any investment coming to Kerala from France and Italy. And these are the very folks criticizing Modi on his foreign tours . MCC did become a reality, but SNC Lavalin became controversial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_Kerala_hydroelectric_scandal

the postage stamp long economics

A few months before the general elections 2014, P Chidambaram, made a statement on the NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate - "Modi's knowledge of economics can be written on the back of a postage stamp" [ We all know Chidambaram's skill at economics, going by what his son has earned] 

Modi replied in a Feb 2014 speech -  "My knowledge is so small that you do not even need a postal stamp to write it. It is encapsulated in just one word - trustee, like Gandhi-ji talked of trusteeship. You are the trustee of the country's resources, not its owner. For me, this much knowledge is enough,"

Let me start of saying, I perhaps don't even know that much on economics.. If I remember it right, during my BTech at IITM, the lowest ever grade I got was for economics :-) .. but that shouldn't stop me from jumping into the bandwagon of giving an opinion or two on DeMo and GST !

courtesy: https://twitter.com/manojkureel?lang=en 

In particular, there has been a slew in articles in MSM about "economic slowdown". The major trigger may have been the GDP 5.7% numbers. And this triggered a "backward analysis" leading up to criticism of DeMo. Yet again, I am no expert here, but here are certain things to consider 

1) Take a simple example - In Kerala, my home state, the flow of black money in the real estate market is an open secret -- especially in the Malabar area where there has been a big flow on non-tax-paid money from the Gulf. You buy a land for 50lakhs, what you show on paper (and hence pay tax for) is something like 1 lakh !! Yes, you heard it right, 98% black money. 

And right after DeMo, I heard (and the situation more or less continues even now), that real estate transactions became far less in number - almost came to a stand still. Yes, slow down - but isn't it worth it ? One may argue, oh well, things will slowly go back to normal (read as the 98% black money situation) eventually, so what has one gained ? Well, I am pretty sure there are many many who would have made a decision that they are never going to invest their hard earned salaried money in such a market. Perhaps even shy away from dealing with black money in the lakhs.. These folks will remain silent, of course - but let that not be misread as "no impact". 

The impact of DeMo in cutting the money for the Kashmiri terrorists and naxals are also well know.. and indeed the crackdown on shell companies.. the reduction in the "check-post corruption" - Suffice to say, there has been enough evidence of reduced corruption.. something that noone easily "admits", because that amounts to accepting a high corruption in the days before the DeMo

2) There was an article about a real estate transaction in Bangalore - all papers were clean, and yet he had to pay bribe - but because it was post DeMo, he had to pay in thousands and not in lakhs as it used to be before DeMo . Again, one may say, look, you did not clean up the system, you just reduced its level of "evilness" - true, but again, that has a cascading impact... and no wonder, some people are pained and yet "silent"- isn't it a "slowdown" that one prefers ?

The same applies for apartment prices also - they were skyrocketing, and suddenly, it stagnated. Now, is it Modi's fault that the prices were going into such a bloated up situation , without any logic, that those who bought it the time when they were are its peak, are now disappointed ?  

3) Coming to GST - well, the key point, in my opinion, is this - IF .. and that is a big IF , someone were paying sales tax sincerely, I believe GST (in most cases) would have made his business better. But the fact of the matter was, sadly, that many were just not paying the taxes... and now they are forced to (to get the benefits) - and so naturally, it became a losing game for them.  Interestingly, most of them transferred the burden on to the end customer... A hotel that sold food at 100 rupee before, was perhaps supposed to pay a tax of 15 rupees.. but the guy never did.. thanks to a weak system. Now he has to pay 12 rupee GST, and he doesn't want lose his original 100 rupee revenue (all of which went into his pocket).. and so he adds 12 rupee to the 100 and charges the customer 112.. In the end it looks as though because of GST the prices went up - well, it did, but simply because the trader never paid tax to begin with. 

4) Well, one may ask - so what.. may be Modi did the right thing.. but aren't perceptions that matter ? A business man who is now forced to pay GST , is going to vote against Modi next time.. the end customer, many of whom the salaried class are also going to vote against Modi because the burden has ultimately been carried to them... well well well - at the surface yes.. but the Indian electorate - perhaps its vastness, perhaps its diversity -- has been something that nobody has been able to decode correctly. That mind, will only.. I repeat - only be fully known in the next elections .. and by the way, isn't "how is India after 20 years" more important than "how India votes after 2 years" ?   

I believe Chanakya Niti Chapter 6, shloka 16 says 

प्रभूतं कार्यमपि वा तत्परः प्रकर्तुमिच्छति।
सर्वारम्भेण तत्कार्यं सिंहादेकं प्रचक्षते॥

can be translated as.  The one excellent thing that can be learned from a lion is that whatever a man intends doing should be done by him with a wholehearted and strenuous effort (reference) or Without considering about the quantum of a Work, doing work with full devotion/strength/capacity is the prime traits of a Lion. We should the same (reference)

If Modi is indeed doing that, in the spirit of Trusteeship, then its short term pain for long term gain

jayema saṃ yudhi spṛdhaḥ

The logo of INS Vikrant proudly procliams RgVeda 1.8.6 - jayema saṃ yudhi spṛdhaḥ

It could be loosely translated as "We will win against enemies in the war". Some translate it as "I conquer all those who fight against me".

Consider these from Indian Defence (I am no expert, this list is a common man's understanding):

1) Jul 2016, Burhan Wani, India commander of Hizbul Mujahideen killed

2) May 2017 - his replacement Sabzar Bhat killed

3) June 2017 - Junaid Mattoo of Lashkar-e-Taiba

4) July 2017 - Bashir Lashkari (had a bounty of Rs 10lkh) of LeT eliminated

5) July 2017 - Sajad Gilkar, again of HuM killed

 #4 and #5 were involved in killing many policemen including Feroz Dar and Md Ayub Pandit
Also in Aug Stone-pelters help cornered terrorist Zakir Musa flee

6) Aug 2017 - Yasin Itoo - operational commander of HuM killed

7) Sep 2017 - Ishfaq Ahmad Padder involved in killing the 22yr old army officer Umar Fayaz - killed

8) Sep 2017 - Abu Ismail, involved in attack against Amarnath Yatris, killed

The last one in particular had an interesting angle - http://www.firstpost.com/india/let-kashmir-chief-abu-ismail-killed-amarnath-attack-mastermind-was-caught-unaware-while-walking-on-road-4044241.html . Perhaps the security forces could have caught them alive, but looks like they were not interested. These are seasoned terrorists - trained to withstand torture at questioning. So why keep them, with a possibility always of having to lose them again as an exchange for a plane hijack or a politician's daughters kidnap. As the Indian army officers would tell you - "It is God’s duty to forgive the enemies, but it’s our duty to convene a meeting between the two" - shubhasya sheeghram for that

0909 - Remembering the Sher Shah

Had he lived on, tomorrow (09-09) he would have turned 43. But fate did not let him complete 25

Sam Bahadur Manekshaw - India's gutsy witty former Army Chief is once supposed to have said "If a man says he is not afraid of dying, he is either lying or is a Gurkha" . He perhaps did not know Vikram Batra at that time !

July 1999 - the vacation after my 2nd year of IITM BTech. If I remember it right, I was doing a mini project at DRDO Bangalore. Naturally the talks were about the Kargil war. In fact for my generation that is the only "closest to a war" that India fought - so far - in our life time. With internet not so common, Newspapers and TV news were mostly the source.   Vikram Batra's name became famous because of his "Yeh Dil Maange More" radio message after the capture of Point 5140 .

That mere attitude was inspiring, but the first time I read about him making that statement, little did I know what real substance this young chap was made of. Then came the news of him being killed in the next attempt. Somehow I don't remember reading the full details - years later I read a detailed account somewhere - I dont remember where, but it was pretty close to what is detailed in his wiki page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikram_Batra#Kargil_War - true "Lion King"

Param Vir Chakra, till date, I believe has been awarded 21 times. 4 of that were for bravery in Kargil. 2 out of that 4 were posthumous. One was Vikram Batra and the other Manoj Kumar Pandey

The least inspiration that these men who died for India instill in us is to live for this Nation.

damned if you do, damned if you dont !

Nirmala Sitaraman has clearly been the highlight of the day. Some twitter handles even went to the extend of comparing Sushama-Nirmala-Smriti as Lakshmi-Durga-Saraswati . Interestingly, I guess none of these names actually directly indicate a goddess' name - perhaps these names mean "beauty", "purity" and "memory". The one lady in the cabinet with actually a goddess' name - Uma - made it to some posters featuring all 4 of them, but most postures were about the 3 .. Clearly, the generation who perhaps looked up to Uma for her heroics (or whatever is the feminine of that) during Ayodhya movement is dwindling, or more likely, even among them "performance with soft-hindutva" scores better than hollow hindutva - signs of the aspirations of India-2020 and beyond ....

Now, there is another school of thought - the whole idea of seeing gender in everything , itself is a leftist notion. So why congratulate Nirmala for being the "first real woman Defence Minister", just congratulate her on getting to one of the top-most positions on her merit.. Remember Indira Gandhi, all said and done, was thrust-in as a heir apparent - though later she may have proved to be good (in some sense). What if she were not born into an "aristocrat" family as the Nehru's ?

pic from: http://www.teluguone.com/vanitha/content/nirmala-sitharaman-944-29139.html#.WawQeWeHqWk

Yet another interesting comment was made by one of the journalists on TV - " This is going to change nothing for the woman who get raped daily in India. For the common woman, this isn't going to change anything". That one is interesting, because if BJP did not have these many women occupying key posts in the cabinet, the typical comment would be "Look, typical patriarchal party". And now that the party did entrust these women, it suddenly becomes "tokenism" for these journos !

An RSS friend of mine, who used to volunteer a lot for some of Seva Bharati's  charity activities (including trying to raise funds) used to tell me - people used to tell (in the 90s..) that instead of trying to build a temple in ayodhya, or oppose valentines day, why doesnt the RSS do some charity ? And now with RSS (and affiliates) as one of the biggest Seva networks in the world, when the same people are approached for funds, the talk goes "Oh no, I don't want to donate to xyz group because it has links with RSS". Damned if you do, damned if you don't

Alright, I quoted this and that, do I have a view here ? Well, yes, and simple.. India is slowly but steadily heading back to its svabhaava - to its natural self. Its svabhaava it is to have Lakshmi-Durga-Saraswati handle important portfolios. And this, is manifesting in a new pan-India way  ... if the AsmaKhanPathans and AnjaliGeorges and SaswatiSarkars are not indications of it, if a JNU educated, Tamil born, wed to a Telugu Nirmala Sitaraman is not indication of it, then what else is ?
 

Sep1 : Talk by Governor Tathagata Roy

 

Got this fwdd from a friend 

 

"Awakened Bengal, Bengaluru"

presents

"My People, Uprooted"

 

Speakers include:

• Sri Tathagata Roy (Hon. Governor of Tripura)

• Sandeep Balakrishna (Renowned Columnist, Author)

• Dr. Giridhara Upadhyaya

Please join us for the evening and invite others.

Date: 1st September, 2017 (Friday)

Time: 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM

Venue: Jayarama Seva Mandali, Jayanagar 8th Block, Bengaluru.

Please see and share the attached flyer.Contact: 87545 03250 (Sumeet Roy)

 

Rahul Gandhi is partly right

Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi is probably the most famous (or infamous, depending on which side you look from) triple-agent of "our times". He graduated in medicine in year 2002 (yes, Dr Humam Khalil ...) , was arrested by the Jordanian security service in late 2007 and was believed to have been transformed into a double agent loyal to the U.S. and to Jordan. Two years later, hours left for the "new year of 2010", the doctor "struck".  To quote the rest of the story from http://www.toptenz.net/10-brilliant-double-agent-spies-history.php

Al-Balawi was sent to Afghanistan and assigned to report Al-Qaida’s activities. He did report enough to win 100% of the CIA’s confidence... One day, he announced that he had a very important bit about Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current No.1 of Al-Qaida. He said that he needed to convey the information only to superior officers, so he was called in to the CIA command office . Since he was late and senior CIA officials were anxiously waiting for him, nobody bothered to check him for security precautions. He went straight in. Once inside the office, he blew himself up, killing seven CIA officers and two military officers. This was the deadliest strike on the CIA in more than 25 years.

Why did I bring this up ? Sorry, the connection may be clear - if at all - only by the end of the post. Let me switch to excerpts from a speech RaGa gave last week 17Aug17 or so - "Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi accused RSS of trying to infiltrate every institution of the country, including bureaucracy and judiciary......"

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEianpyVs7wgEZNGzkNjsxlfOASPUuD_Oe6I5jPDVNVDGBINE_DBIuiXyGjOfeCTZWaBX2eUE7VLOuoB1HfYqso3iJZC5kHbY631tpxjPNmWW3S9BPdd-hPxEcRgizaEgCyWY6Id/s640/blogger-image-1464073107.jpg

Interesting, later he mentioned "media" also . This seems to have thrown some not-so-pro-BJP MSM folks also over the fence .. Bhupendra Chaubey of CNN was seen shouting (cant outshout Arnab though) - Rahul Gandhi is hinting that I, Bhupendra Chaubey is controlled by the RSS ! How ridiculous . Most media MSM or social, pretty much ignored this as yet another "pappu rant"

But wait, I for one actually think that for once RaGa has actually spoken a half-truth. Consider this, almost 10-15 yrs back, a VHP person I knew in US (who was then in his seventies), actually expressed the opinion, privately of course, that "Launching a political party like BJP was never a sangh plan. In fact BJP  is a disaster". So what did the "sangh" want then ? In his opinion, the sangh's aim is "Man-making for Nation building", and these men and women, well entrenched in patriotism and selfless-service, should become part of every organisation -- including main stream political parties like Congress and even the left !

Boy, it sounds very much like another of sangh-fantasies, like "We can unite the Akhand Bharat again" . I mean, having a "selfless patriotic person" at the helm of Congress party !! But may be, such a sangh plan actually exist(ed). Post 6Dec92 many in the Congress actually believed that PV NarasimhaRoa was an RSS guy. To me, a bit more "credible" one was the ex-CEC TN Seshan standing against Advani in the 1999 General Election from Gandhinagar . Though he knew that he would lose, the aim - some say - was to become prominent in Congress (having head-on stood against Advani), and the brain behind this move, I once heard, was an RSS man from Coimbatore !! History tell us though, it did not click. The latest in the list is Pranabda - was (is) he a pro-RSS man within Congress ?

So RaGa is right,RSS  wants everything "sanghised"- most prominent is his own party. 

Sometimes I wonder if folks like Mani Shanker Iyer or Digvijay Singh are indeed so anti-BJP, or are they just playing a game from within Congress. After all Iyer's infamous "Modi can come sell tea in AICC" jibe that was brilliantly turned around into the Chai-pe-Charcha strategy.  Digvijay Singh's mentoring of Rahul Gandhi is probably what made him actually believe in "Hindu extremism is a bigger threat to India" , and covertly support the various "saffron terrorism" allegations, which now Rebuplic TV and Times Now are competing to expose as a Pakistan+Congressparty plot , and thereby backfiring big time on the Congress

So now, back to my "triple agent" example. With Amit Shah openly declaring wanting a Congress-Mukt Bharat, and actually showing that in practice over the past few months, has the Sangh given up its idea of "taking over the Congress party using some real patriotic folks", and just make it one National party (BJP) vs some regional parties game ? Or is this actually a beginning towards that grand plot - eventually achieving a situation where there are two National parties - one an openly pro-RSS BJP, and the other a subtly pro-sangh one (a "taken-over"Congress or a new party) ?  The double agents and the triple agents within parties will decide the fate of Indian politics in the years to come !