the final lap of state elections 2017

State election fever is slowly starting to grip India again. So far this is the 2017 state election tally

 

 The ones left are HP and Gujarat. 

1) HP: Looks like RaGa has already given this up...- which is bad news for BJP because after all there is no better campaigner for the BJP than RaGa :-) .. but BJP likely to wrest it from Cong 

2) Gujarat: Interesting AAP seems to have given up and shifted focus (or rather trying their "testing waters" in MP now) ... and may be the Gujarat AAP strategy is part of the "gharvapsi" to Congress so that opposition(to BJP) votes do not split -see my Gurdaspur example https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/919552766002970625 . And then all the chotta leaders who have popped (none of who, I have heard, talk any sense till date). It is likely that BJP will retain, though majority may reduce - but more importantly BJP Gujarat has to start worrying about grooming next-Gen state leaders a la Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Raman Singh who can retain power with not so much help from Modi 

Congress on the other hand is getting desperate - knowing Modi is invincible , they are attacking his two key aides in the name of their sons.. clearly, it is noise without substance generated before the election, and meant to subside after the elections. Will it cut ice with people of Gujarat ? less likely.. and it is likely that despite all dirty tricks, Congress will lose.. and yet again go into depression mode

I do not have too much expertise and ground level knowledge on these states, so my predictions above are more of gut-feeling. Now, I tend to "believe" in a alternate-year-is-good logic.. end-of 2013 to 2014 was good for BJP  - center as well as states like Maharashtra, Jharkhand, etc etc - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_elections_in_India#Legislative_Assembly_elections

2015 not so go good with Bihar and Delhi - though Bihar is back in NDA kitty 

2016 - well, was somewhat of a neutral/good year - Kerala/WB/TN are states with not much at stake for BJP... Whether 2017 would be good for BJP, mainly depended on UP .. and there was magic.. If BJP retains Gujarat, I will mark 2017 as a good year for BJP (with "small" losses in Punjab state elections and LokSabha bye-elections). But then 2018, may not be so good for BJP... Karnataka --> is not going to be easy (I will cover in future posts), so also the currently in kitty Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/MP (in my opinion, the toughest is listed first). But then, that is okay, some sort of a set-back is needed before vigorously getting back in 2019 - read my earlier posts http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2013/12/why-36-may-be-better-than-4.html and followed by http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2014/05/how-battle-was-won-and-why-war-still.html (part2)