If not for the Muslim League

This is a follow up post to the previous one . I was just curious to know if the Congress Party (INC) on its own won a majority in Kerala in the last 30-years. If my numbers are correct, its a big NO

And what is more startling, its % of seats out of the total has been reducing - both for the "UDF winning cycle" (shaded in green) and for the "UDF losing cycle". And in the latest election, Congress party doesn't even have a simple majority in UDF itself -allies have. CongressMuktKerala in offing ?

the Kerala voting pattern

One question I keep facing from some friends is why doesn't BJP do big in Kerala. With the Vengara by-election results, the same questions have been raised - fact is, in such a hugely Muslim dominated constituency, BJP never stood a chance - though decline in its votes warrants introspection

There are many reasons why BJP doesn't fully click in Kerala - let me give the demographic one now

The above is my "theory" or "hypothesis" as applicable for 2014/16 - because it is not based on any major statistical analysis or data - just out of my understanding of Kerala. Red is the left and allies (LDF) , green is Congress and allies(UDF)  and saffron BJP and its allies (NDA). The Hindu, Christian and Muslim numbers may not exactly match the numbers given at http://infoelections.com/infoelection/index.php/kerala/7433-caste-religion-wise-population-in-kerala.html but that one are 2011 numbers and I don't fully trust them. So I will go with my 52-28-20 numbers.

Now, what I have shown is an almost "solid base" - the minimum that these parties will get. Almost 18% are "swing and others". By swing I mean people who are not solid - it doesn't necessarily mean that the whole swing will be a state-wide phenomenon. Lot of local factors and even "personal" factors play in. In 2016 assembly elections LDF got ~6% of that "swing" (so it got ~43%), UDF got ~4% (so it got ~39%), NDA got about 5% (so it got ~15%) and the 3% went to others (total 3%)

Indeed, there are pockets like Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad , Kasargod where BJP many times comes a close second.. But then that is far from making a solid impact in Kerala. Unless something majorly changes, in the 2021 assembly elections too, BJP may not be part of "deciding who rules"

So then, what is its future ? Well, let us purely look at the Hindu votes - I have split it as 50% left, 20% UDF, 18% NDA and 16% swing. BJP's future will depend on how much they can "tap into"

1) The Hindu votes - and naturally, the biggest "sufferers" will be the left, which is why wherever BJP starts getting traction, the left starts violence. And from what I know, the pro-BJP votes from Hindus cuts across caste lines ( The RSS worker brutally murdered by left's goondas recently was from the SC Pulaya community as per https://scroll.in/article/845869/rss-workers-murder-throws-light-on-growing-competitive-politics-in-keralas-dalit-neighbourhoods indeed, no "self-proclaimed champions of Dalits" seemed to even bother or pretended that they did not know)

In my opinion, there is some reasons due to which the flow of cadres between left and BJP is more 'natural' - first both are cadre based parties, not-so-much family-based parties, both have core "sociological ideology" -- in fact, many of the Hindu-communists (not an oxymoron when it comes to Kerala) are religious too.. I keep saying, if you take a poll among the Sabarimala going Hindus, left party may win hands down ! The big differences between the left and BJP are in their views of Nationalism and minority appeasement -- for the latter, the left in Kerala is worse than Congress (whatever Hindu votes the left loses to BJP, it tries to make up by getting Muslim votes)

How about swinging Hindu-Congress votes to BJP.. well it depends.. Most of the Hindu-Congress voters are still there just because a) their forefathers were Congress b) they are anti-communists and just don't feel confident enough that BJP can beat the left c) no "ideology", so de facto Congress

So in my opinion, from that "solid" (as I mentioned thats the 2014/16 situation) 25 + 10, at best, may be by 2026, BJP may be able to get 10 more - that will still take it to their best of 15 + 10 = 25 (and that assuming it doesn't lose much from the 15% it got in 2016 ). Chances of that 25% itself appears bleak (unless a major game changing local leader or issue arises).. and even if it happens, the LDF + UDF with a 70-75% can prevent the BJP from getting significant seats (already happening locally)

2) non-Hindu votes:  Getting and non-trivial percentage of Muslim votes is out of question in the near future. This is one reason BJP tries to reach out to the predominantly Christian Kerala Congress. In my opinion that may not be a good idea in the long term. Kerala Congress - with umpteen factions - in general has lot of corruption issues and in some sense follows the basic ideology of Congress - that politics is to enhance ones own family and to eat away public money. What BJP may need to do is to slowly attract the section of the Christians who sees "logic", who are very Nationalistic, and many of whom respect and even practice some aspects of Hinduism.

Many christian families teach their children classical dance and music - a section of the Hindutva folks view this as inculturation as a means for more conversions.. May be some do it for this sake, but a good amount of Christians do it because they respect the Hindu traditions and culture.

Well, easy said than done, some might say.. and with all this too, at best you can get a "5" out of 20. And by the time you get that 25+5 = 30% , the Hindu population may have already come below 50% and the whole arithmetic may change. So yes, catch-22 it is, but there is no option with the BJP except to patiently keep trying -- unless a local messiah or issue is string enough for a "revolution"

20 years since Pinarayi Vijayan visited US and 3 other countries

Here is an interview from 1997 Aug 1 - https://www.destination-kerala.com/1997/08/01/kerala-evokes-widespread-interest-abroad-says-cm-nayanar/ of the then communist CM of Kerala

I am adding a screenshot here, just for the records and looking at some of the things there, just cannot stop laughing - self-declared US haters ("anti-capitalists") on a trip to Niagra Falls to study the possibility of  power generation from Athirappilly Falls in Kerala - and 20 years since, not only has that materialized, neither do I see any investment coming to Kerala from France and Italy. And these are the very folks criticizing Modi on his foreign tours . MCC did become a reality, but SNC Lavalin became controversial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_Kerala_hydroelectric_scandal

the postage stamp long economics

A few months before the general elections 2014, P Chidambaram, made a statement on the NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate - "Modi's knowledge of economics can be written on the back of a postage stamp" [ We all know Chidambaram's skill at economics, going by what his son has earned] 

Modi replied in a Feb 2014 speech -  "My knowledge is so small that you do not even need a postal stamp to write it. It is encapsulated in just one word - trustee, like Gandhi-ji talked of trusteeship. You are the trustee of the country's resources, not its owner. For me, this much knowledge is enough,"

Let me start of saying, I perhaps don't even know that much on economics.. If I remember it right, during my BTech at IITM, the lowest ever grade I got was for economics :-) .. but that shouldn't stop me from jumping into the bandwagon of giving an opinion or two on DeMo and GST !

courtesy: https://twitter.com/manojkureel?lang=en 

In particular, there has been a slew in articles in MSM about "economic slowdown". The major trigger may have been the GDP 5.7% numbers. And this triggered a "backward analysis" leading up to criticism of DeMo. Yet again, I am no expert here, but here are certain things to consider 

1) Take a simple example - In Kerala, my home state, the flow of black money in the real estate market is an open secret -- especially in the Malabar area where there has been a big flow on non-tax-paid money from the Gulf. You buy a land for 50lakhs, what you show on paper (and hence pay tax for) is something like 1 lakh !! Yes, you heard it right, 98% black money. 

And right after DeMo, I heard (and the situation more or less continues even now), that real estate transactions became far less in number - almost came to a stand still. Yes, slow down - but isn't it worth it ? One may argue, oh well, things will slowly go back to normal (read as the 98% black money situation) eventually, so what has one gained ? Well, I am pretty sure there are many many who would have made a decision that they are never going to invest their hard earned salaried money in such a market. Perhaps even shy away from dealing with black money in the lakhs.. These folks will remain silent, of course - but let that not be misread as "no impact". 

The impact of DeMo in cutting the money for the Kashmiri terrorists and naxals are also well know.. and indeed the crackdown on shell companies.. the reduction in the "check-post corruption" - Suffice to say, there has been enough evidence of reduced corruption.. something that noone easily "admits", because that amounts to accepting a high corruption in the days before the DeMo

2) There was an article about a real estate transaction in Bangalore - all papers were clean, and yet he had to pay bribe - but because it was post DeMo, he had to pay in thousands and not in lakhs as it used to be before DeMo . Again, one may say, look, you did not clean up the system, you just reduced its level of "evilness" - true, but again, that has a cascading impact... and no wonder, some people are pained and yet "silent"- isn't it a "slowdown" that one prefers ?

The same applies for apartment prices also - they were skyrocketing, and suddenly, it stagnated. Now, is it Modi's fault that the prices were going into such a bloated up situation , without any logic, that those who bought it the time when they were are its peak, are now disappointed ?  

3) Coming to GST - well, the key point, in my opinion, is this - IF .. and that is a big IF , someone were paying sales tax sincerely, I believe GST (in most cases) would have made his business better. But the fact of the matter was, sadly, that many were just not paying the taxes... and now they are forced to (to get the benefits) - and so naturally, it became a losing game for them.  Interestingly, most of them transferred the burden on to the end customer... A hotel that sold food at 100 rupee before, was perhaps supposed to pay a tax of 15 rupees.. but the guy never did.. thanks to a weak system. Now he has to pay 12 rupee GST, and he doesn't want lose his original 100 rupee revenue (all of which went into his pocket).. and so he adds 12 rupee to the 100 and charges the customer 112.. In the end it looks as though because of GST the prices went up - well, it did, but simply because the trader never paid tax to begin with. 

4) Well, one may ask - so what.. may be Modi did the right thing.. but aren't perceptions that matter ? A business man who is now forced to pay GST , is going to vote against Modi next time.. the end customer, many of whom the salaried class are also going to vote against Modi because the burden has ultimately been carried to them... well well well - at the surface yes.. but the Indian electorate - perhaps its vastness, perhaps its diversity -- has been something that nobody has been able to decode correctly. That mind, will only.. I repeat - only be fully known in the next elections .. and by the way, isn't "how is India after 20 years" more important than "how India votes after 2 years" ?   

I believe Chanakya Niti Chapter 6, shloka 16 says 

प्रभूतं कार्यमपि वा तत्परः प्रकर्तुमिच्छति।
सर्वारम्भेण तत्कार्यं सिंहादेकं प्रचक्षते॥

can be translated as.  The one excellent thing that can be learned from a lion is that whatever a man intends doing should be done by him with a wholehearted and strenuous effort (reference) or Without considering about the quantum of a Work, doing work with full devotion/strength/capacity is the prime traits of a Lion. We should the same (reference)

If Modi is indeed doing that, in the spirit of Trusteeship, then its short term pain for long term gain

jayema saṃ yudhi spṛdhaḥ

The logo of INS Vikrant proudly procliams RgVeda 1.8.6 - jayema saṃ yudhi spṛdhaḥ

It could be loosely translated as "We will win against enemies in the war". Some translate it as "I conquer all those who fight against me".

Consider these from Indian Defence (I am no expert, this list is a common man's understanding):

1) Jul 2016, Burhan Wani, India commander of Hizbul Mujahideen killed

2) May 2017 - his replacement Sabzar Bhat killed

3) June 2017 - Junaid Mattoo of Lashkar-e-Taiba

4) July 2017 - Bashir Lashkari (had a bounty of Rs 10lkh) of LeT eliminated

5) July 2017 - Sajad Gilkar, again of HuM killed

 #4 and #5 were involved in killing many policemen including Feroz Dar and Md Ayub Pandit
Also in Aug Stone-pelters help cornered terrorist Zakir Musa flee

6) Aug 2017 - Yasin Itoo - operational commander of HuM killed

7) Sep 2017 - Ishfaq Ahmad Padder involved in killing the 22yr old army officer Umar Fayaz - killed

8) Sep 2017 - Abu Ismail, involved in attack against Amarnath Yatris, killed

The last one in particular had an interesting angle - http://www.firstpost.com/india/let-kashmir-chief-abu-ismail-killed-amarnath-attack-mastermind-was-caught-unaware-while-walking-on-road-4044241.html . Perhaps the security forces could have caught them alive, but looks like they were not interested. These are seasoned terrorists - trained to withstand torture at questioning. So why keep them, with a possibility always of having to lose them again as an exchange for a plane hijack or a politician's daughters kidnap. As the Indian army officers would tell you - "It is God’s duty to forgive the enemies, but it’s our duty to convene a meeting between the two" - shubhasya sheeghram for that

0909 - Remembering the Sher Shah

Had he lived on, tomorrow (09-09) he would have turned 43. But fate did not let him complete 25

Sam Bahadur Manekshaw - India's gutsy witty former Army Chief is once supposed to have said "If a man says he is not afraid of dying, he is either lying or is a Gurkha" . He perhaps did not know Vikram Batra at that time !

July 1999 - the vacation after my 2nd year of IITM BTech. If I remember it right, I was doing a mini project at DRDO Bangalore. Naturally the talks were about the Kargil war. In fact for my generation that is the only "closest to a war" that India fought - so far - in our life time. With internet not so common, Newspapers and TV news were mostly the source.   Vikram Batra's name became famous because of his "Yeh Dil Maange More" radio message after the capture of Point 5140 .

That mere attitude was inspiring, but the first time I read about him making that statement, little did I know what real substance this young chap was made of. Then came the news of him being killed in the next attempt. Somehow I don't remember reading the full details - years later I read a detailed account somewhere - I dont remember where, but it was pretty close to what is detailed in his wiki page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikram_Batra#Kargil_War - true "Lion King"

Param Vir Chakra, till date, I believe has been awarded 21 times. 4 of that were for bravery in Kargil. 2 out of that 4 were posthumous. One was Vikram Batra and the other Manoj Kumar Pandey

The least inspiration that these men who died for India instill in us is to live for this Nation.

damned if you do, damned if you dont !

Nirmala Sitaraman has clearly been the highlight of the day. Some twitter handles even went to the extend of comparing Sushama-Nirmala-Smriti as Lakshmi-Durga-Saraswati . Interestingly, I guess none of these names actually directly indicate a goddess' name - perhaps these names mean "beauty", "purity" and "memory". The one lady in the cabinet with actually a goddess' name - Uma - made it to some posters featuring all 4 of them, but most postures were about the 3 .. Clearly, the generation who perhaps looked up to Uma for her heroics (or whatever is the feminine of that) during Ayodhya movement is dwindling, or more likely, even among them "performance with soft-hindutva" scores better than hollow hindutva - signs of the aspirations of India-2020 and beyond ....

Now, there is another school of thought - the whole idea of seeing gender in everything , itself is a leftist notion. So why congratulate Nirmala for being the "first real woman Defence Minister", just congratulate her on getting to one of the top-most positions on her merit.. Remember Indira Gandhi, all said and done, was thrust-in as a heir apparent - though later she may have proved to be good (in some sense). What if she were not born into an "aristocrat" family as the Nehru's ?

pic from: http://www.teluguone.com/vanitha/content/nirmala-sitharaman-944-29139.html#.WawQeWeHqWk

Yet another interesting comment was made by one of the journalists on TV - " This is going to change nothing for the woman who get raped daily in India. For the common woman, this isn't going to change anything". That one is interesting, because if BJP did not have these many women occupying key posts in the cabinet, the typical comment would be "Look, typical patriarchal party". And now that the party did entrust these women, it suddenly becomes "tokenism" for these journos !

An RSS friend of mine, who used to volunteer a lot for some of Seva Bharati's  charity activities (including trying to raise funds) used to tell me - people used to tell (in the 90s..) that instead of trying to build a temple in ayodhya, or oppose valentines day, why doesnt the RSS do some charity ? And now with RSS (and affiliates) as one of the biggest Seva networks in the world, when the same people are approached for funds, the talk goes "Oh no, I don't want to donate to xyz group because it has links with RSS". Damned if you do, damned if you don't

Alright, I quoted this and that, do I have a view here ? Well, yes, and simple.. India is slowly but steadily heading back to its svabhaava - to its natural self. Its svabhaava it is to have Lakshmi-Durga-Saraswati handle important portfolios. And this, is manifesting in a new pan-India way  ... if the AsmaKhanPathans and AnjaliGeorges and SaswatiSarkars are not indications of it, if a JNU educated, Tamil born, wed to a Telugu Nirmala Sitaraman is not indication of it, then what else is ?
 

Sep1 : Talk by Governor Tathagata Roy

 

Got this fwdd from a friend 

 

"Awakened Bengal, Bengaluru"

presents

"My People, Uprooted"

 

Speakers include:

• Sri Tathagata Roy (Hon. Governor of Tripura)

• Sandeep Balakrishna (Renowned Columnist, Author)

• Dr. Giridhara Upadhyaya

Please join us for the evening and invite others.

Date: 1st September, 2017 (Friday)

Time: 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM

Venue: Jayarama Seva Mandali, Jayanagar 8th Block, Bengaluru.

Please see and share the attached flyer.Contact: 87545 03250 (Sumeet Roy)

 

Rahul Gandhi is partly right

Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi is probably the most famous (or infamous, depending on which side you look from) triple-agent of "our times". He graduated in medicine in year 2002 (yes, Dr Humam Khalil ...) , was arrested by the Jordanian security service in late 2007 and was believed to have been transformed into a double agent loyal to the U.S. and to Jordan. Two years later, hours left for the "new year of 2010", the doctor "struck".  To quote the rest of the story from http://www.toptenz.net/10-brilliant-double-agent-spies-history.php

Al-Balawi was sent to Afghanistan and assigned to report Al-Qaida’s activities. He did report enough to win 100% of the CIA’s confidence... One day, he announced that he had a very important bit about Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current No.1 of Al-Qaida. He said that he needed to convey the information only to superior officers, so he was called in to the CIA command office . Since he was late and senior CIA officials were anxiously waiting for him, nobody bothered to check him for security precautions. He went straight in. Once inside the office, he blew himself up, killing seven CIA officers and two military officers. This was the deadliest strike on the CIA in more than 25 years.

Why did I bring this up ? Sorry, the connection may be clear - if at all - only by the end of the post. Let me switch to excerpts from a speech RaGa gave last week 17Aug17 or so - "Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi accused RSS of trying to infiltrate every institution of the country, including bureaucracy and judiciary......"

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEianpyVs7wgEZNGzkNjsxlfOASPUuD_Oe6I5jPDVNVDGBINE_DBIuiXyGjOfeCTZWaBX2eUE7VLOuoB1HfYqso3iJZC5kHbY631tpxjPNmWW3S9BPdd-hPxEcRgizaEgCyWY6Id/s640/blogger-image-1464073107.jpg

Interesting, later he mentioned "media" also . This seems to have thrown some not-so-pro-BJP MSM folks also over the fence .. Bhupendra Chaubey of CNN was seen shouting (cant outshout Arnab though) - Rahul Gandhi is hinting that I, Bhupendra Chaubey is controlled by the RSS ! How ridiculous . Most media MSM or social, pretty much ignored this as yet another "pappu rant"

But wait, I for one actually think that for once RaGa has actually spoken a half-truth. Consider this, almost 10-15 yrs back, a VHP person I knew in US (who was then in his seventies), actually expressed the opinion, privately of course, that "Launching a political party like BJP was never a sangh plan. In fact BJP  is a disaster". So what did the "sangh" want then ? In his opinion, the sangh's aim is "Man-making for Nation building", and these men and women, well entrenched in patriotism and selfless-service, should become part of every organisation -- including main stream political parties like Congress and even the left !

Boy, it sounds very much like another of sangh-fantasies, like "We can unite the Akhand Bharat again" . I mean, having a "selfless patriotic person" at the helm of Congress party !! But may be, such a sangh plan actually exist(ed). Post 6Dec92 many in the Congress actually believed that PV NarasimhaRoa was an RSS guy. To me, a bit more "credible" one was the ex-CEC TN Seshan standing against Advani in the 1999 General Election from Gandhinagar . Though he knew that he would lose, the aim - some say - was to become prominent in Congress (having head-on stood against Advani), and the brain behind this move, I once heard, was an RSS man from Coimbatore !! History tell us though, it did not click. The latest in the list is Pranabda - was (is) he a pro-RSS man within Congress ?

So RaGa is right,RSS  wants everything "sanghised"- most prominent is his own party. 

Sometimes I wonder if folks like Mani Shanker Iyer or Digvijay Singh are indeed so anti-BJP, or are they just playing a game from within Congress. After all Iyer's infamous "Modi can come sell tea in AICC" jibe that was brilliantly turned around into the Chai-pe-Charcha strategy.  Digvijay Singh's mentoring of Rahul Gandhi is probably what made him actually believe in "Hindu extremism is a bigger threat to India" , and covertly support the various "saffron terrorism" allegations, which now Rebuplic TV and Times Now are competing to expose as a Pakistan+Congressparty plot , and thereby backfiring big time on the Congress

So now, back to my "triple agent" example. With Amit Shah openly declaring wanting a Congress-Mukt Bharat, and actually showing that in practice over the past few months, has the Sangh given up its idea of "taking over the Congress party using some real patriotic folks", and just make it one National party (BJP) vs some regional parties game ? Or is this actually a beginning towards that grand plot - eventually achieving a situation where there are two National parties - one an openly pro-RSS BJP, and the other a subtly pro-sangh one (a "taken-over"Congress or a new party) ?  The double agents and the triple agents within parties will decide the fate of Indian politics in the years to come ! 

I said it a bit too early

During my last post, I did not remember the state elections in the two "J" states - Jharkhand and J&K . As the results for these are still pouring in, my feeling is that in Jharkhand, BJP will get somewhere in the 38-44 range, which should be - if need be , together with some independents or small parties - enough to form a govt. In J & K, I think chances are more for a PDP+Congress govt. This would put the tally something like

Congress : Alone -6 ; alliance 4
BJP : Alone - 6 ; alliance - 5
Others - 9

Still, kind of a level field.. I think this point is now kind of more evident with the disruptions in RS - until BJP gets majority is RS too, it is still only a level field. And now for some random thoughts

1) Yet again, I hold that the results in J & K is good for BJP in the long run.. hopefully it will learn some lessons from a 0 tally from Kashmir Valley in spite of so much effort.. and the fact that they still have work to do in Jammu and Ladakh to be able to sweep those completely. Most importantly, this will hopefully send the signal to volunteers in Delhi to work harder, as well as voters in Delhi to give BJP a clear mandate..

2) The entire disruption of RS - I think the so called opposition is just playing into BJPs hands. There are 4 possible scenarios of what could happen under Modi in the next 1 or 2 yrs

a) India does not develop much - but if the opposition continues to disrupt, the blame will be on them
b) If India does not develop despite the opposition not disrupting RS, the blame will squarely be on Modi
c) India develops, opposition not doing much disruption, most credit will go to Modi, not much negative on oppn
d) India develops, despite the opposition disruptions, then well, they can forget 2019

So only in scenario b, does the opposition benefit, and for that opposition has to keep quiet. By continuing to disrupt RS, they are just turning and turning more villains in the eyes of the voters and Modi will continue to be seen as some one who tried his best to bring the debate on development, but the opposition did not let him to

And worst, people are going to increasingly see the need to make BJP victorious in state after state. Got it ?!

Why 2014 has been a year of setting the field level

In a matter of couple of weeks, life and death uncertainties apart, I would turn 35 .  One more year and it will be 36. Why is that number so significant ? - it is like becoming an adult twice ! (sorry, that is probably inspired by a Malayalam movie dialogue). And again, if health and stars permit, that makes it about 1/3rd of active life left !!!

Some churning has started on what I really want to do with that remaining life.. and most likely it will continue for the next one year.. or may be even after that, I will probably just keep thinking and leading life as usual, with all its "still something not satisfactory" part. Interestingly, career wise too, my current job is now in a situation that major transitions within are going to happen for next 1 year, assuming the job stays or I stay !!

So basically, at a personal field, and at a career field, I feel its kind of a start all over !

Interestingly, I feel that Indian politics too have come to such a stage. With the Maharashtra and Haryana state election results now over, I think pretty much major (state or National of course) elections for 2014 are over - I doubt if Delhi can be done before December. So what did 2014 have in store for us ?

At the surface, it looks like a BJP sweep and upswing, but I would say, so far they have only leveled the field. Look at the number of states currently (or in a matter of few days) ruled by Congress, BJP and others - alone or with allies
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_Indian_chief_ministers and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_governments_of_India#mediaviewer/File:Indian_states_by_ruling_party.png

Congress

Alone: Arunachal Pradhes, Assam, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram . Total - 6
Alliance: Kerala, Meghalaya, Uttarakhand (CM from Congress), J &K , Jharkhand . Total - 5


BJP

Alone: Chattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan . Total -6
Alliance: Maharashtra(hopefully BJP CM),Andhra Pradesh, Punjab,Nagaland. Total - 4 .

Others:

Bihar, Delhi, Orissa, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Telengana, Tripura, UP, WB. Total - 9 .

So its Congress+ still in 11, BJP+ in 10 and rest in 9 . True, the Loksabha is with BJP, but Rajya Sabha is still not. And though the intial 3-4 months of Modi government has seen reasonably bold decisions and at least "on right track" decisions (like on diesel/coal, like on Swach Bharath, labor reforms, proposed housing plans...) , it still is taking time to put the economy and the mood in general, first on to a level playing field and then build on it

Hopefully, the churn thus far is almost over, and from now it is a matter of how things shape up from now on. The Modi wave (in other words, the good will, trust and hope factor that Modi enjoyed that helped him win Loksabha elections , the momentum of which also got carried forward to some extend to Maharashtra/Haryana)  will not be there for ever. And none must be knowing this as much as Amit Shah, and he must be working out newer strategies.

Sometimes uncertainty is interesting, from the point of view of curiosity. But not beyond a certain point !!

How the battle was won and why the war still remains

Prelude: As I shared my post of what I qualified as Modi wave, flood or tsunami ( http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2014/04/the-numbers-that-matter.html ) with my friends in US, one of them asked me my view on how it was engineered. I promised a post after the resultss are declared. I had noted down the points and wanted to post it on May 16th night itself. But the scale of the victory was so overwhelming that I just couldn't pull myself up for a post on May 16th - have been so glued to the TV for the past two days. I took a leave on Friday, because something deep within told me that it is going to be a historic day. Now that it is slowly sinking in, here is my post, divided into 4 parts

Many of these points may very well be discussed to death by media, but I am trying to give my own thoughts - in no way is it comprehensive, neither have I been part of any official campaign team, below are just my observations

Part 1: How the battle was won - "internal" (to BJP) factors

I think BJP, with Modi as its head campaigner, unleashed one of the smartest ever campaigns in the history of Independent India. Though Modi was declared PM candidate only in september, he seems to have planned elements of it even well ahead, but in a way that it was still flexible enough to suit to a dynamic Indian political scene (like the emergence of AAP). To be able to achieve this, there needed a team of not just inspired brigade, but fired up brigade. I think the greatest quality of Modi that made him win this election is that he is some one who inspires. The energy if this 63 year old man, makes some one like me who is just a little above half his age, literally disturbed that I am only able to do so less.  So I can imagine how much some one who is able to work with him can get fired up

There are lot of articles floating around about CAG, how about 200 young professionals quit their job to work for NaMo and so on, but here is a piece that appeared on April 10, that I liked (and saved for this post) http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp-narendra-modi-bjp-members-lok-sabha-polls-2014-namo-mission-272+-modi-for-pm/1/354876.html

Indeed some of the details of how this was run, may be kept a trade secret - for potential future use. In fact there were even different teams - for example, I was once told that "chai-pe-charcha" and "namo-tea-party" were completely different initiatives, run by completely different people, and sometimes there was even friendly competition and petty fights between their volunteers (I may be wrong, but thats my impression) - so characteristic of youth. Can you remember the last time there was friendly competition among India youth for a selfless work of this kind ?

Whether it was NaMo alone, or whether it was a team advising or discussing with him, there was clearly strategies behind almost every move - I don't think even a single bit of what Modi did was unplanned. In that sense, he showed great discipline in "sticking to the plan".  From September to early March or so NaMo built up the momentum through his weekend rallies (including the famous one in Bihar where he historically completed his address inspite of Bomb Blasts and handled the crowd and the situation so very well). Once the elections were declared it was a flood of rallies - all so well organized , meticulously executed. It was perhaps quite a bit of RSS help, but then you need a leader to bring out the best in every one and to give a chance to do what you are best at ! I have a feeling that even the art-of-living's voter registration drive a way of "taking help smartly"

NaMo's speeches had variety in 3 major ways - one, he was able to change tactics based on the region (including almost invariably mentioning a historical fact or anecdote of the place he was speaking). Two, he was able to change his style based on the type of the crowd - remember his 56-inch chest comment among UP bhayyas as opposed to a "They criticize me by saying that I work for the improvement of urban middle class.. aren't urban middle class not citizens of India?" comment (not the exact words, but along those lines) in Bangalore. And third, he was able to change gears as time progressed .. from a slow build up, to a sustained medium run up to an aggressive ending.

Indeed there are lot more factors - including the fact that many other BJP leaders too contributed immensely. The fact that BJP had strong CMs in MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Goa, made it that much easier for BJP - NaMo could much more focus on Bihar and UP.  And undoubtedly the Gujarati contribution - interestingly, if u analyze the results, it literally looks like a Tsunami with center in Gujarat - the closer to Gujarat, the more you were impacted. - Clean sweep in Rajasthan, Delhi.. almost near sweep in MP, UP , Maharashtra,.. big impacts in Bihar, Karnataka .. the water even reached Kanyakumari  Anyways, I cut short my list and move on to the external factors

Part 2: How the battle was won - external (to BJP) factors

 2013 Dec 8, Sunday. Assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh and Delhi were being declared. Though BJP got 80+, 75+, 50+ percentages in the first three states, the highest focus was on Delhi. BJP at 32, and the new "killer" AAP at 28. The big question was whether BJP will stake claim, whether they will "buy out" some AAP MLAs etc etc.. Suddenly, or so it appears, NaMo flew down to Delhi around 3 pm or so, had an emergency meeting with BJP leaders including Dr HarshVardhan. Little later in the evening, HarshVardhan came on one of the channels - I think it was Times Now - and to a question on whether he will stake claim, categorically stated "We do not have the numbers, we will sit in opposition". The confidence with which he said that, made me feel right away that it was a well thought out decision and most likely was either a NaMo idea or had his full backing.

The rest is now history- how AAP came to power, messed it up so badly and lost Delhi 0-7 to BJP in LS

The point I want to make is how brilliantly BJP strategized these moves. And I made a post then, http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2013/12/why-36-may-be-better-than-4.html and I firmly believe, AAP was a big factor in contributing to such a massive victory for BJP. AAP played the role of pouring oil into an already ignited BJP volunteer. The kind of campaign they ran was easily the ugliest in India's election history - lies after lies, fake stories after fake stories, abuses after abuses. Silence was Modi's weapon against AAP including in Varanasi . And the NaMo youth brigade just grew (many fence sitters, lazy folks like me were now switched on) and fired up.. ney blazed against the imposters , most of whom had no idea of what they are talking about and were more like cult members. I am not dismissing AAP as a long term threat to India - nuisance never goes away you see - but that is for another day.

Arvind Kejriwal wanted to be seen as the "Man who stopped Modi" , but he symbolized what exactly went wrong with the anti-Modi campaign. The anti-Modi ness itself.  Modi wanted to make it a Presidential style election - a referendum on his agenda and the likes of Kejriwal, Mulayam, Lalu , RSVP indeed, and Mamata played into it, each one wanting to be "I stopped Modi" claimant on his own, making it so much more easier for Modi.

That apart, the way the alliances were built up were quite interesting as well. In hindsight , it appears that Modi had a high confidence that BJP will succeed in mission 272 on its own, and did not go out of the way to get allies who were likely to score big - like Mamata, Jaya and Naveen. Shivsena and SAD were existing allies, and the only other big ally that Modi got was TDP, which in my opinion is less controversial and is more along the development lines. There are varying opinions on whether BJP should have gone alone in TN - I think the reason for the rainbow alliance was that BJP did not have the organizational infrastructure in TN (unlike Kerala where its relatively stronger). Allying with kind of parties it did in TN, gave BJP a chance to use their network, and spread NaMo message - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/BJPs-allies-in-Tamil-Nadu-bond-on-Modi-theme/articleshow/33465373.cms

It may not have fetched many seats for BJP in TN, but I think the variety in the way BJP handled different states (for example, going alone in Odisha, Kerala, WB, Assam...) , going with many small groups in some states (TN, Bihar, Maharashtra), tying up with TDP in Seemandhra , and the results of each of these, will give BJP enough insights to learn about for its future plans - and that is what I will move on to next, but it will be brief

Part 3: The war remains: Internal (to BJP) 

BJP won the best tally ever - as Balbir Punj put it, many would have thought it will not happen in their life time. Yet, it still has not won a single seat in Kerala, won only 1 seat (that too in alliance) in TN, won only 2 in WB (and one if not both of those are from the Gorkhaland area) etc etc. In a nutshell, the way BJP got the numbers is by maximizing the impact of where it has been traditionally strong - and even this, in most cases, it won so on Modi wave. Organizationally,  and more importantly from a local leadership point of view, the party still faces challenge - UP is the best example.

However, this is the best opportunity to make it organizationally and ideologically strong in states like UP to a position of winnability in the next assembly election, and in states like Kerala and WB to a position of more-strength in their respective assembly elections.

There is at least one more challenge that BJP faces 'internally'. Managing the Parivar groups. Though most of these organizations and their members and extremely devoted to serving India and its culture and I have no doubt that they will want to do India any harm, in their over enthusiasm, and traditionally think-from-heart nature, they may tend to suggest things in a way that may put pressure (or will be projected to put pressure) on BJP. NaMo has shown that he has his smarter ways of doing some these things that the parivar groups want, and I hope they let him do it his way .. or if at all you want to suggest, do it more subtly than in a way that appears to be pushing for it.

Part 4: The war remains: Eternal (to BJP) factors  
 
 Well, what I really mean is, factors concerning India itself, but not necessarily to be handled at a party level, but at the NaMo government level. It is likely that Congress and many of the opposition parties will plan its own mischievous activities, not to speak of the "sleeping" cells of our 'friendly' neighbours. There will be the usual NGO wallahs ready to start demonizing India abroad ..   Can NaMo withstand it all, and take India to new heights ?

Perhaps, like his campaign itself, NaMo will need the continued participation of the brigade, in a way never seen before in Independent India's history. The call was already given in Varanasi today - for every Indian to be part of a clean-India-by-2019 (Gandhiji's 150th birth anniversary) campaign, and that may just be the beginning ...

  

May 11 thoughts yet again (250th post)

For whatever reason, May has in many years been a "May be" month for me. And this year seems not much different. Uncertainties in life (which I am not going to touch upon much) and uncertainties in Indian politics - and at times I have felt that the latter is really critical in terms of deciding the fate of India - for 5 years.. ney, may be 50

Before I get into GE2014 again, let me repeat the significance of May 11 (reposting from my 2006 post) :

A)  1857, the first war of Indian independence, essentially started on May 9, and the Indian soldiers recaptured Delhi from the Brits on May 11 . here's something to read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Delhi_(1857) .

B)  1951 : On May 11 Dr Rajendra Prasad, the then President, performed the Prana Prathistha ceremony of a renovated Somnath Temple. And I so love to quote his words, year after year

"By rising from its ashes again, this temple of Somnath, is to say proclaiming to the world,that no man and no power in the world can destroy that for which people have boundless faith and love in their hearts..... Today our aim is not to rectify history, our only aim is to proclaim anew our attachment to the faith , convictions and values on which our religion has rested since immemorial ages"


(the quote can be found on http://blog.lkadvani.in/blog-in-english/no-full-stops-in-bjp though I read it elsewhere)

C) 1998 : The Pokhran II tests - started on May 11  ( Operation Shakti ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II  .  I am glad Narendra Modi tweeted about it this year http://news.oneindia.in/new-delhi/narendra-modi-addresses-twitterattis-on-pokhran-ii-s-16th-anniversary-1445371.html  

 All the three above, for me, are incidents of rejuvenation, and I am hoping, we will see a similar on May 16th

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A few more random items before I close this post

* In my last post, I predicted a 240 for BJP. Even up to a few weeks before that, I had predicted more like a 216.. so what exactly changed ? Well, a few things -  more and more ground reports from Tamil Nadu suggested a few potential seats for BJP there. Some thing seems to be happening in WB - I see lot of Modi talk amongst Bengalis in Bangalore, and Mamata going so all out against Modi tells me that BJP has gained critical mass.  Similarly the desperation shown by Congress and SP in UP to make hurdles for Modi, tells me that indeed there is quite a Modi impact there.. So putting all this together, I redid my min-max-average method, and I simply landed with a 240 . We will see how close or off I am, on May 16 :)  .. so thats another may be

* I have been hinting at my previous posts that Modi may not become PM - I was predicting more of a scenario of NDA (not BJP alone, but NDA) getting close to a 250 (something like a 210 for BJP and 40 for allies), and then some new potential allies insisting they will support NDA if its some one other than Modi as PM. Well, that is still a possibility, but what if NDA actually gets a clear majority - like my latest prediction of 285.. or even a 300 ? In such a situation too, I still see a 50-50 chance  of Modi not being a PM .. I some how feels that he has a grander plan in mind.. even in the Time Now interview, while answering a question of why he has gone all out in attacking the likes of Mamata and "burning bridges" with potential post-poll allies, Modi answered something to the effect of "it has a reason" and when Arnab says he did not quite understand, Modi simply says "understand as much as you can.. and the rest I will tell you after May 12". So is Modi waiting for the final vote to be casted (some repolling is due May 13, so may be after that) and drop a surprise announcement ? Did he meet RSS top brass on May 10 itself instead of waiting for May 13 or even a May 16, to start any discussions along this lines ? Deep within I feel that the meeting was not just about how to manage allies (in case NDA < 272) or who will succeed him in Gujarat, or about his potential cabinet -- I think there is something deeper happening.. we will know soon - till then thats " may be "

* What if Modi indeed becomes the PM ? who will be his ministers.. who will focus on the party - some say Rajnath, some say may be Amit Shah ..  And what if NDA ends up being in opposition after all... will Modi take up being Leader of opposition ? Too many " may be "

* Finally, this is my 250th post .. and May 17th also marks the completion of 9 years of this blog . In 3 years I had 200 posts, but in the next 2 years I had only 25 .. and then it took another 4 years for the next 25 !! So what will be the future of this blog .. Will I get back to a more frequent posting routine ? well, " may be " .

That is what the month of May is about  .. let May be !!