The long term impact

This is part #3 of the series and before I get into the main topic of this post,wanted to save these links

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/let-truth-be-known-about-modi
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/the-rise-and-rise-of-tomorrows-prime-minister-narendra-modi
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/who-is-afraid-of-narendra-modi

And so, what if after all this efforts, NaMo doesn't get the required numbers to be the PM ? In my opinion, he would have worked out a strategy as much as he would have worked out one if he were to be the PM.

Here are the three scenarios that I would think possible

Scenario 1: Modi may take the NDA (that goes to poll as a pre-poll alliance) to a number quite close to the required 272, and some potential allies (like Mamta Banerjee) may insist that they would support if it is some one else from BJP, and Modi may actually agree to it. Though one may find it hard to believe, I personally tend to think that this would be a scenario that Modi would be quite well prepared for.. in fact may be even wanting deep-within !! This gives him a perfect unselfish & for-the-party image that would make him grow even bigger in stature. Sonia Gandhi had done this in 2004 and though the situations are different, one cannot deny that she did become the darling at least of Congress workers. The impact of a sacrificing Modi on party workers and even others would be much big

It is also interesting to note that just for the sake of proving oneself to be "secular", some of these potential allies would say no to Modi and yes to other BJP leaders, even though in reality Modi may actually be more secular than others. Well, this is kind of similar to what I tend to believe in general - that there are many more staunch and agressive hindutvavadis outside the sangh parivar (though numbers may be small), but then the moment any of them speak up, they are labelled as sanghis or RSS wallahs and so on. In other words, RSS many times end up becoming the punching bag, and some times get "overrated" for capabilities which it actually lacks.Indeed, the real and hidden reason for such a behavior from some of the allies could be jealousy and fear - for such a growing tall leader

Scenario 2 : For whatever reason NDA including any potential new allies could not add up, and there is yet another coalition possible - Congress led or Congress outside support or even a third front one which is both non-Congress and non-BJP. In any of these scenarios, it would be an "ugly" alliance  - bad for India for a short term, but Modi would most likely use the time left for the fall of such a government to expand the BJP. 

A few years ago - may be it was after the 2007 election victory in Gujarat or so -some interviewer asked Modi about the prospect of being a National leader. He replied saying he would do what the party would ask him to.. and gave an example - if I am asked to go do ground work in a state where we are not yet strong, say for example Kerala, I would happily do that as a party worker. It clearly shows that at least subconsciously he was bothered that the party isn't strong in the South- mind you, this was when he was far from being a prospective National leader. Now that he is one, he must be experiencing the "pinch" of a lack of pan-India presence much more, and would surely be drawing up a strategy to change that. Exactly how he would do that- well, I can only say, will be interesting to see !

In the least, it is quite clear that Modi's very presence in the National scene has energized the party cadre and given the organizational strength and setup of a sangh-inspired party, it is quite likely that much of that would be converted into a energy needed to make the party grow

Scenario 3 : And finally what if he indeed becomes the PM ? Will it be an easy task, given that the pre-poll NDA may not have the numbers and newer allies are likely to be opportunistic and demanding .. Will he able to leave up to the expectations ?  This isn't an easy question, after all its a billion plus strong expectation ... But then, the way he has remained in power in Gujarat which ultimately is based on good performance overall,  it is quite likely that Modi may be able to put together a strategy by which he would remain the PM and the party would continue to grow, so much so that a general election 2019 may actually see the BJP get it much closer on its own

And this is worrying the opponent much more than anything else.. that the rise of Modi may not just mean a short dull period for them , but rather a wipe out atleast for 2 or 3 terms to come.. that explains the desperate attacks


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