Going back to my post in 2008 http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html , the fundamental question is, will and if so why would the numbers be different this time for NDA ? Here is my take
2009 was a case were BJP (and perhaps NDA too) had many factors working against it - the projected PM candidate - Advani - was already getting into his old age and into Jinnah kind of controversies, there was still confusion on whether Modi was a contender, a fear that third front may become kingmaker (and a "last minute" swing towards UPA so that it can counter the third front in the wake of NDA being seen as having less possibility of getting closer to the 272, as compared to UPA).In 2004 too, there were factors working against the NDA - Vajpayee's health, and his "Hajpayee" image that made many of the core-sangh volunteers and supporters note vote and/or work towards BJP victory.. I tend to strongly believe that both in 2004 and the 2009, it is the lack of support from the pro-right volunteers and sympathizers that made the difference, and in 2009 it was worse than in 2004. In spite of this, in 2009 the NDA got the average of what I had predicted as best and worst- i.e close to 160
Things seem much more in order for the BJP in 2013 and the run up to 2014 - *assuming* that the Congress will not succeed in its dirty games that it often does in the run up to elections (that could be matter of another post).
I take some cues from this assessment - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/with-narendra-modi-in-front-bjp-targets-262-lok-sabha-seats/articleshow/23118494.cms and add a few of my own "theories". One is that a few regional parties like AIADMK, possibly even the BJD will form post-poll alliance with NDA. Second is that there will be consolidation in Modi's favour that could, at least in some cases make it go beyond the maximum that BJP has won in particular state ever. Third, in "volatile" states like AP, one could see a potential atleast few numbers in favor of the NDA.. and it will count. Given all that, here is my chart - some numbers are carry over from my 2009 assessment, and I have added back many more states. Remember, the "max" may appear an exaggeration, but then at the end, we will take the average as well. Also, at least in some cases, the "max" considers a potential post-poll ally, multiplied with a probability factor for the same
State........... Seats.................Min..............Max
AP .................. 42 ................... 12 ............... 22 ( TDP factor, perhaps even TRS)
Assam ............. 14 ................... 2 ............... 8 ( allies, tho' less likely)
Bihar ............... 40.................... 16................ 30 ( Indeed , the jealour Nitish factor)
Chattisgarh.......11..................... 4.................. 8
Delhi.................7......................2................... 4
Goa...................2......................0.................. 2
Gurjarat............26....................16................. 22 (The Gujarati pride factor, indeed)
Haryana............10......................4 .................. 6 (allies again)
HP......................4......................2 .................. 4 (I guess this is a very pro-Modi state)
Jharkand............14..................... 6...................10
J & K .................6 .................... 0 ................ 2 ( NC factor, but probability is less)
Karnataka..........28.................... 10................ 18
Kerala ..............20 .................... 0 ................ 2
MP.....................29.....................16 ................24
Maharashtra...... 48.....................20................ 36 ( possible MNS or NCP !)
Orissa.................21......................6.................14 (BJD factor)
Punjab................13......................6..................10
Rajasthan...........25.....................12..................18
Tamil Nadu ...... 39 .................... 0 ..................30 (AIADMK, I feel a high probability factor)
Uttaranchal....... .5........................2................. 4
UP.......................80....................20................ 50 (indeed, the big one)
West Bengal .... 42................... 2 ............... 12 (Trinamool , but less probable)
Others ...............17 .................. 2 ............... 4
Total.................543 ............... 160..............340
Two points worth mentioning - one, the numbers are indeed an approximation and after all a prediction. Two, my 2009 min and max predicted were 112 and 212 - had a range of only 100. This time around the range is 180 ... That is quite explainable due to two factors - how the image of Modi will finally swing the votes in a National scenario when he is declared as PM candidate, is highly unpredictable. And two, the allies , pre-poll or post-poll are too volatile this time around as well.
With all that said, the average is working out to be a 250 !! There is a small catch in this calculation - take for example AIADMK .. The average number that went to form the 250, is a 15 . For a moment, keep TN out - the average turns out to be 235 . Now, AIADMK (assuming it will win 30, which is quite likely) could either join, or not join .. and in the later scenario, make it a 265 !! .. TMC is the other party that could have a huge impact..
In other words the current NDA (including TDP) is likely to get (based on law of averages) around a 220 and the rest will depend on post poll alliances.
Post script: This part is posted on 2014 May 14. Just wanted see where and how BJP and NDA lost in 2004
2009 was a case were BJP (and perhaps NDA too) had many factors working against it - the projected PM candidate - Advani - was already getting into his old age and into Jinnah kind of controversies, there was still confusion on whether Modi was a contender, a fear that third front may become kingmaker (and a "last minute" swing towards UPA so that it can counter the third front in the wake of NDA being seen as having less possibility of getting closer to the 272, as compared to UPA).In 2004 too, there were factors working against the NDA - Vajpayee's health, and his "Hajpayee" image that made many of the core-sangh volunteers and supporters note vote and/or work towards BJP victory.. I tend to strongly believe that both in 2004 and the 2009, it is the lack of support from the pro-right volunteers and sympathizers that made the difference, and in 2009 it was worse than in 2004. In spite of this, in 2009 the NDA got the average of what I had predicted as best and worst- i.e close to 160
Things seem much more in order for the BJP in 2013 and the run up to 2014 - *assuming* that the Congress will not succeed in its dirty games that it often does in the run up to elections (that could be matter of another post).
I take some cues from this assessment - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/with-narendra-modi-in-front-bjp-targets-262-lok-sabha-seats/articleshow/23118494.cms and add a few of my own "theories". One is that a few regional parties like AIADMK, possibly even the BJD will form post-poll alliance with NDA. Second is that there will be consolidation in Modi's favour that could, at least in some cases make it go beyond the maximum that BJP has won in particular state ever. Third, in "volatile" states like AP, one could see a potential atleast few numbers in favor of the NDA.. and it will count. Given all that, here is my chart - some numbers are carry over from my 2009 assessment, and I have added back many more states. Remember, the "max" may appear an exaggeration, but then at the end, we will take the average as well. Also, at least in some cases, the "max" considers a potential post-poll ally, multiplied with a probability factor for the same
State........... Seats.................Min..............Max
AP .................. 42 ................... 12 ............... 22 ( TDP factor, perhaps even TRS)
Assam ............. 14 ................... 2 ............... 8 ( allies, tho' less likely)
Bihar ............... 40.................... 16................ 30 ( Indeed , the jealour Nitish factor)
Chattisgarh.......11..................... 4.................. 8
Delhi.................7......................2................... 4
Goa...................2......................0.................. 2
Gurjarat............26....................16................. 22 (The Gujarati pride factor, indeed)
Haryana............10......................4 .................. 6 (allies again)
HP......................4......................2 .................. 4 (I guess this is a very pro-Modi state)
Jharkand............14..................... 6...................10
J & K .................6 .................... 0 ................ 2 ( NC factor, but probability is less)
Karnataka..........28.................... 10................ 18
Kerala ..............20 .................... 0 ................ 2
MP.....................29.....................16 ................24
Maharashtra...... 48.....................20................ 36 ( possible MNS or NCP !)
Orissa.................21......................6.................14 (BJD factor)
Punjab................13......................6..................10
Rajasthan...........25.....................12..................18
Tamil Nadu ...... 39 .................... 0 ..................30 (AIADMK, I feel a high probability factor)
Uttaranchal....... .5........................2................. 4
UP.......................80....................20................ 50 (indeed, the big one)
West Bengal .... 42................... 2 ............... 12 (Trinamool , but less probable)
Others ...............17 .................. 2 ............... 4
Total.................543 ............... 160..............340
Two points worth mentioning - one, the numbers are indeed an approximation and after all a prediction. Two, my 2009 min and max predicted were 112 and 212 - had a range of only 100. This time around the range is 180 ... That is quite explainable due to two factors - how the image of Modi will finally swing the votes in a National scenario when he is declared as PM candidate, is highly unpredictable. And two, the allies , pre-poll or post-poll are too volatile this time around as well.
With all that said, the average is working out to be a 250 !! There is a small catch in this calculation - take for example AIADMK .. The average number that went to form the 250, is a 15 . For a moment, keep TN out - the average turns out to be 235 . Now, AIADMK (assuming it will win 30, which is quite likely) could either join, or not join .. and in the later scenario, make it a 265 !! .. TMC is the other party that could have a huge impact..
In other words the current NDA (including TDP) is likely to get (based on law of averages) around a 220 and the rest will depend on post poll alliances.
Post script: This part is posted on 2014 May 14. Just wanted see where and how BJP and NDA lost in 2004
| BJP | Chng | Ally | Chng | |||
| 1999 | 2004 | 1999 | 2004 | |||
| UP | 29 | 10 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Ukhnd | Na | 3 | -16 | Na | 0 | 1 |
| Bihar | 23 | 5 | 18 | 6 | ||
| Jhknd | Na | 1 | -17 | Na | 0 | -12 |
| MP | 29 | 25 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Chtsgrh | Na | 10 | 6 | Na | 0 | |
| Mah | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 12 | -3 |
| Guj | 20 | 14 | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raj | 16 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kar | 7 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| AP | 7 | 0 | -7 | 29 | 5 | -24 |
| TN | 4 | 0 | -4 | 22 | 0 | -22 |
| Assm | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Odisha | 9 | 7 | -2 | 10 | 11 | 1 |
| Del | 7 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Har | 5 | 1 | -4 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| Pun | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| HP | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| JK | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| Goa | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| WB | 2 | 0 | -2 | 8 | 1 | -7 |
| Kerala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Others | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 182 | 138 | -44 | 124 | 44 | -80 |
2 comments:
Law of averages ! Interesting though hard to digest in particular when seeing numbers like 340 . But going through your previous (2009) 'prediction' it seems to have worked, so let us wait another 8-9 months and see
BJP strategy seems to be maximize the seats in states which it has a some presence. BJP wants to win on its own (i.e without the allies)-
Assam/Arunachal/Manipur/rest of NE -8 ; Bihar - 30 ; Chattisgarh - 10 ; Delhi -5 ; Goa -2 ; Guj - 25 ; Haryana - 7 ; HP - 4; Jharkhand - 12; J & K - 2; Karnataka - 25 ; MP - 28 ; Maharashtra - 15 ; Orissa - 4 ; Pjb - 4 ; Rajasthan - 24; TN/AP -3 Utkhand - 4; UP -60; Total - 272
So mission 272 is not entirely impossible , though difficult and needs lot of effort in 2 months
Then there are the allies - most likely SS - 20 ; TDP - 10 ; SAD - 5 ; TN allies - 5 ; LJP -5 ; other (allies or own) -5 ; Total 50 . So whatever seats the BJP slips out from the 272 can be made up by the allies. BJP ideally wants 272
And as plan Plan B, there are also parties that could support NDA from outside (though not clear if they will accept Modi or demand a different PM candidate) - AIADMK 25 ; BJD - 15 ; Othe 10 ; Tot 50
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