During my last post, I did not remember the state elections in the two "J" states - Jharkhand and J&K . As the results for these are still pouring in, my feeling is that in Jharkhand, BJP will get somewhere in the 38-44 range, which should be - if need be , together with some independents or small parties - enough to form a govt. In J & K, I think chances are more for a PDP+Congress govt. This would put the tally something like
Congress : Alone -6 ; alliance 4
BJP : Alone - 6 ; alliance - 5
Others - 9
Still, kind of a level field.. I think this point is now kind of more evident with the disruptions in RS - until BJP gets majority is RS too, it is still only a level field. And now for some random thoughts
1) Yet again, I hold that the results in J & K is good for BJP in the long run.. hopefully it will learn some lessons from a 0 tally from Kashmir Valley in spite of so much effort.. and the fact that they still have work to do in Jammu and Ladakh to be able to sweep those completely. Most importantly, this will hopefully send the signal to volunteers in Delhi to work harder, as well as voters in Delhi to give BJP a clear mandate..
2) The entire disruption of RS - I think the so called opposition is just playing into BJPs hands. There are 4 possible scenarios of what could happen under Modi in the next 1 or 2 yrs
a) India does not develop much - but if the opposition continues to disrupt, the blame will be on them
b) If India does not develop despite the opposition not disrupting RS, the blame will squarely be on Modi
c) India develops, opposition not doing much disruption, most credit will go to Modi, not much negative on oppn
d) India develops, despite the opposition disruptions, then well, they can forget 2019
So only in scenario b, does the opposition benefit, and for that opposition has to keep quiet. By continuing to disrupt RS, they are just turning and turning more villains in the eyes of the voters and Modi will continue to be seen as some one who tried his best to bring the debate on development, but the opposition did not let him to
And worst, people are going to increasingly see the need to make BJP victorious in state after state. Got it ?!
Congress : Alone -6 ; alliance 4
BJP : Alone - 6 ; alliance - 5
Others - 9
Still, kind of a level field.. I think this point is now kind of more evident with the disruptions in RS - until BJP gets majority is RS too, it is still only a level field. And now for some random thoughts
1) Yet again, I hold that the results in J & K is good for BJP in the long run.. hopefully it will learn some lessons from a 0 tally from Kashmir Valley in spite of so much effort.. and the fact that they still have work to do in Jammu and Ladakh to be able to sweep those completely. Most importantly, this will hopefully send the signal to volunteers in Delhi to work harder, as well as voters in Delhi to give BJP a clear mandate..
2) The entire disruption of RS - I think the so called opposition is just playing into BJPs hands. There are 4 possible scenarios of what could happen under Modi in the next 1 or 2 yrs
a) India does not develop much - but if the opposition continues to disrupt, the blame will be on them
b) If India does not develop despite the opposition not disrupting RS, the blame will squarely be on Modi
c) India develops, opposition not doing much disruption, most credit will go to Modi, not much negative on oppn
d) India develops, despite the opposition disruptions, then well, they can forget 2019
So only in scenario b, does the opposition benefit, and for that opposition has to keep quiet. By continuing to disrupt RS, they are just turning and turning more villains in the eyes of the voters and Modi will continue to be seen as some one who tried his best to bring the debate on development, but the opposition did not let him to
And worst, people are going to increasingly see the need to make BJP victorious in state after state. Got it ?!
