As I type this, the 2013 assembly elections for the 4 Hindi heartland states are almost final.. and to sum it up, the final tally would be - a 3/4th+ majority for BJP in Rajasthan, a 2/3+ in MP, a 1/2+ (simple majority) in Chattisgarh, and a 32-33 out of 70 in Delhi. I call this a 3.6-0.4 for the BJP, the 0.4 being for the AAP. Here's my quick analysis
So, Is there a Modi wave ?
I surely think so for the following reasons, and I will start off with a rather "lighter one"
a) For the past few months, Modi has been campaigning for a "Congress-mukt Bhaarat" .. Well, this election result has actually come pretty close to that in those 4 states ...
b) Out of the 4 states, the place where BJP's chief ministerial candidate gave Modi the most "free-hand" was Rajasthan. Apparently Vasundhara even called upon the people to vote her to power so as to help Modi be the PM. There is no direct relation that a vote for BJP in a state election will help Modi for a National election, but indirectly I think it does speak volumes for Modi's popularity --> Congress decimated to ~10% seats
The continued denail by Media and other parties of this, is only going to help the BJP
c) So then, why did he not help get a simple majority in Delhi and a better performance in Chattisgarh ? Let me start off with Chattisgarh - of course, we cannot know what would have been the numbers had Modi not campaigned, or even if he were simply not declared the PM candidate before the election, so we don't know if Modi actually helped put the party just above the 45. Keep that apart, it is also quite likely that the remote areas of the state did not really have much of an impact. There were some media reports which said people in the remote parts of Chattisgarh (for example the tribals) hardly knew who Modi even was.
That I feel is not fully believable, and I believe the media is once again making the mistake of under estimating the tribals in terms of their connectivity to the Nation . We the media folks are the cultured folks and those in the forests are the uncultured folks mentality, where as the reality may quite well be that the tribals are much more patriotic and Hindu than the media folks themselves (bigger discussion for another day). What I believe has happened is a small impact (sympathy factor) of the naxal attack added to which might be some dirty games played by the Jogis (see my previous post) and natural anti-incumbency, may have prevented BJP from making huge gains
As for Delhi, what is interesting is the same media that predicted that the BJP will be third, before the Modi rally and Harshvardhan being made the CM candidate , don't even seem to remember all that.. hasn't Modi rather silently but surely helped changed the tide .. (I used "helped", since a huge chunk of the credit goes to the BJP worker and Dr Harshvardhan) .. as a case in point, see http://www.firstpost.com/politics/did-modi-silently-pull-the-strings-on-harsh-vardhans-cm-nomination-1190109.html (this one is from Oct 23 )
So now, what will be with Delhi ? As I type this Dr Harshvardhan has declared on a TV channel that he is not interested in staking claim with 32 out of 70 . I think that is a good strategy, I have reasons, not revealing though.. and interestigly, I wonder why nobody is talking about AAP's opinion poll that predicted a 47 of 70 for them !!
And what about the "impact" on the National politics - well, I think I can sum it up in one sentence - It gives hope for Modi, BJP and the Nation, and the 3.6 vs a 4.0 also helps the BJP to not go complacent but to work harder !