Nope, its not the BJP's performance in the falsely-termed semi-final elections ( note: the Indian-English Language Media - the ELM - did so much more after the results than before it, you guess why !!) that makes me say this... and I hardly ever did election predictions on this blog.. but simple math tells me - the NDA in its present form , with the BJP and allies is NOT going to reach anywhere close to the "thoo-seventhee-thoo" mark in the general elections scheduled, mostly for sometime in April-May 2009 !!
And here is my nowhere-near-perfect, yet you-give-me-a-better-calculation chart. This includes the list of states where BJP or its current NDA allies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Alliance_(India)#Past_and_Present_Members ) have any significant presence.. So for example, Punjab is included because of SAD+BJP, but Kerala is not, u-know-why .. And the min and max are at best based on guess and at worst (!) based on recent elections/state anti-incumbency/local considerations, and the underlying assumption is that there is no Ramjanmabhoomi like wave favoring the BJP anywhere
(Ignorance is not always a bliss... that I donno how to put a table on the blog makes this chart a little worse than ugly, doesn't it ? )
State...........................Seats.................Min..............Max
Assam ........................ 14 .................... 5 ................. 10
Bihar .............................40....................10................. 25
Chattisgarh...................11.....................4....................7
Delhi............................... 7......................2....................3
Goa..................................2.......................0....................2
Gurjarat..........................26....................10.................18
Haryana..........................10......................3....................6
HP......................................4......................1....................3
Jharkand.........................14.....................5...................9
Karnataka.......................28....................10................18
MP...................................29.....................12.................22
Maharashtra...................48.....................24................36
Orissa................................21......................7.................12
Punjab...............................13......................5..................10
Rajasthan...........................25.....................8..................13
Uttaranchal........................5........................1.................3
UP.......................................80.....................5..................15
Total.................................... NA ............... 112.............. 212
On a side note, its glaringly obvious that losing UP has been BJP's biggest problems ... with no hope of regaining lost ground any time soon
If its anywhere near the minimum, then one might simply see the end of BJP in a few years, unless may be "NaMo" takes the "center"stage ... Even in the best case scenario, it only adds up to 212 ...... May be some more smaller allies and a seat here and there and a few independents - add a 10 more, and its still only 222 ... Wonder where the bulk of the rest of the seats are gone ? Well, thats where AP with 42 and Tamil Nadu with 39 seats come into play .. It is quite obvious that whoever rules the center next , will have to have won the majority of seats in either if not both of these states ... Well, nothing new, for that is indeed the case at present u wud say with the Congress in AP and DMK and allies in TN... True, I am just stating that fact once more, with an emphasis that the NDA simply cannot think of ruling India without significant number of seats from these two states.... thats all
So now, what going on in these states ? Lets take TN first .. Quite likely the DMK and allies will continue with the Congress .... even otherwise teaming up with the DMK will be counterproductive for NDA due to state anti-incumbency .. AIADMK has already tied up with the left . So the only hope for BJP is if Rajanikanth ( Rajinikanth/Rajnikanth ) joins or actively campaigns for BJP ... Will he ?! Time is simply running out for BJP ....
And coming to AP , though Chiranjeevi (who, I am told will surely have an impact ) prefered the left ( "Allu Arvind wants BJP But Chiru leans Left" .) , the fact that he is strongly oppossed to both TDP and Congress, and that the left already went with the TDP means a PRP-BJP(-TRS) alliance is still a possibilty ... the big question again is, will he ? ... And unlike in the Rajanikanth case, Chiranjeevi has one more option of going it alone at first and supporting NDA from outside post-poll if it helps......
So, like it or not, here is a scenario, where the future of India will depend on what two super stars of South Indian movies will decide !!!!
