VijayiBharat

A few weeks when Indian Army tweeted that they saw foot prints that may be of the mysterious Yeti, some one commented on the tweet "Modi ko vote dene baahar nikalaa hoga"

Its a few minutes past 3pm on the 23May2019, and two things are already almost for sure - BJP on its own crossing 272, and even crossing its 2014 high of 282 ; 300 still in question . That tells me that the joke above was semi-serious. This has truly been a people's election -- people have cancelled vacations, traveled Miles, crossed oceans - to vote for Modi. MASSIVE ! 

In 2014, Modi wanted the people of India. In 2019 the people of India wanted him. I stand vindicated for my catch phrase - "Merit Is the Reason". Modi has been the best so far.

Many RWs on social media are commenting - "the ghost of 2004 is finally over". To me, there are very many reasons. Modi performed better than Vajpayee, its a fact. (Compare the knee jerk reaction to Kandahar with solid responses to Uri and Pulwama). BJP Presidents during 1999-2004 were far far less efficient than the Chanakya Amit Shah. Slipping the majority in Ktaka, losing 3 states in 2018, were all wake up calls. Indeed Rahul Gandhi's stupidity added to all these

What next ? Expectations once again soar, especially on "Hindu issues" like Ayodhya, RTE .. Kerala , Tamil Nadu and AP continue to be challenge. Telangana, Odisha are showing signs of revival, but slow. WB has thrown up big hopes. What will happen to Ktaka and MP state govts are to be seen

But to me, these are relatively smaller issues. Narendra Modi has a historic chance, to change India in such a way that there is no reversal for centuries. He may not be the PM candidate in 2024, but he can put a system in place, put such "successors" in place, that no matter how much the anti-India elements combine, they cannot damage the fabric of this great Nation. This may mean constitutional amendments too - but not limited to that. Trust in judiciary probably is at an abysmal low....

Will he achieve it ? Or at least will he try ? Time alone will tell -- and that will define if Narendra Modi will be remembered like Narendranatha Dutta (Swami Vivekananda) for centuries to come

prediction

Using the same method I used for GE2014 - see http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.com/2014/05/my-final-prediction-for-ge2014_9.html

State	Tot	Min	Max	Avg	Allies
UP	80	32	78	55	1
Bihar	40	12	18	15	12
Guj+MP+Raj	80	64	76	70
Mah	48	16	20	18	16
Jhknd	14	8	12	10
Chtsgrh	11	4	8	6
Kar	28	14	22	18
AP/TG	42	0	4	2
TN	39	1	3	2	10
Assm	14	6	10	8
Odisha	21	8	16	12
Del	7	3	7	5
Har	10	6	8	7	1
Pun	13	1	3	2	1
Uknd	5	3	5	4
HP	4	2	4	3
JK	6	0	2	1
Goa	2	0	2	1
WB	42	8	24	16
Kerala	20	1	3	2
Others	17	4	12	8	3
Total	543	193	337	265	44

mitr8 (conclusion)

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With time running out, I am concluding the series with this post - so 8 instead of 10

Over the last 7 posts, various aspects were covered - economics (both macro and micro), security, foreign policy and much more. The one item pending was "hindutva". Has the govt done much to please the Hindutva brigade ?  This is a rather complex topic, and cannot be dealt with without going into the evolution of hindutva itself. In my opinion, hindutva itself has moved from 1.0 to 2.0 and is now evolving into a 3.0 - I will cover this in a later series

For now suffice to say that, in its own ways, government has done many things to restore the pride in being Hindu - starting with the very Gangamata Puja that PM did before swearing in and subsequently cleaning the Ganga and Varanasi. Giving Yoga international acceptance, supporting Hindu communities elsewhere in the world, and so on.

Its true that nothing much was done to retract a seemingly biased RTE scheme, but to say that because of that we will not vote for Modi, there by helping the very folks (ie Cong) who brought it in the first place seems suicidal. Ordinances were not passed for Ayodhya and Sabarimala, but then wasn't it always Modi's policy to not poke into things govt should not ? Isnt the Hindu society wanting to free temples from govt control, and with that logic, how can govt issue ordinance ?

Let me conclude by saying -- "Lets not lose the "best so far", for want of an imaginary "perfect"

mitr7

Not just the Congress, even some among the BJP supporters seem to "believe" that job creation is one area where Modi govt do a great job. I will consider the following points

1) We need to get out of the notion of jobs = govt jobs, especially with many white elephants..

2) It doesn't make logical sense that GDP growth of  >7% was achieved without job creation

3) India's informal sector remains huge. In some areas "middle men" have reduced

4) Prof Pulak Ghosh of IIM Bangalore and Dr Soumya Ghosh , Chief Economic Advisor to SBI have brought out a detailed study. Going by this article , "15 million people are being added to the labour force every year, busting the theory that jobs are not being created in the country .... we estimate that on an average 25 million babies born per year (this has been calculated after adjusting infant morality rate from crude birth rate) has remained largely constant in the last three decades. Out of 25 million, we expect that 15 million are added to labour force (after conservatively assuming 40% of them voluntarily remain out of labour force or are involved in domestic/agriculture work).”

What has escaped major discussion in main stream media are a bunch of measures taken by the government from a Human Resource angle - extension of maternity leave period , many measures of the AYUSH ministry ,  The Rs 2.50 biodegradable sanitary napkins , various measures for divyang ( differently abled), Hum fit to India fit campaign and so on.

While the International Yoga day has become a big hit, what is perhaps less known is India's stride in emerging as a key player in geopolitics. The rather less know Raisana dialogue is one such example, efforts like this will at least take a decade to really show its impact, which is exactly why we need

Modi Once More    

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mitr6

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Part-3 of my series was on Roti-Kapda-Makaan . This part-6 will be on Bijli-Sadak-Paani

Much has been talked by opposition that the claim by Modi govt of completing the rural electrification is not worth taking credit for. Well, let us go to year 2012 .. there were probably 22000 villages left without electricity. In the 2 years of 2012-13 and 13-14, UPA govt electrified close to 4000 .. ie average 2000 per year. Between 2014 - 18, Modi govt completed the remaining 18000 - average 4500 per year. And it is a no-brainer that the last ones are always the toughest -- or else the UPA2 could have just completed them and taken credit.. and lets not forget, Cong rules for 55yrs+

And by the way, India is the third biggest electricity producing Nation (ref1).

Roads - As a reader if you have any doubts that Modi govt roads much faster (and hence more kms within the time frame) compared to UPA-2, then perhaps there is no point in reading m blog, because only the ultra-biased against Modi can tend to "believe" so. The data is all over the internet. What is interesting is that government has already planned ahead also- Bharatmala, a centrally-sponsored and funded road and highways project of the Government of India with a target of constructing 83,677 km (51,994 mi)[6] of new highways, has been started in 2018. Phase I of the Bharatmala project involves the construction of 34,800 km of highways (including the remaining projects under NHDP) at an estimated cost of ₹5.35 lakh crore (US$74 billion) by 2021-22.   

source: wikipedia

Development - electricity or road comes with concerns of environment. So let me touch up on that briefly. A report (ref2) says, in Nov 2015 the Indian government announced that plastic roads would be the default method of construction for most city streets, part of a multibillion-dollar overhaul of the country’s roads and highways. Urban areas with more than 500,000 people are now required to construct roads using waste plastic. As for renewable energy, let me quote from this article (ref3) During the four years of its rule, Modi government brought about many changes in the country’s renewable energy landscape. Even though it may be too early to call the entire journey as path-breaking, many positive changes have definitely occurred in the last four years considering what latest data shared by the respective ministry show

Finally, water - Whether its the sewage plants being setup (ref4) or actually diverting Asia's biggest sewage from going into a sewage plant as opposed to Ganga (ref5) , Namami Gange project has slowly picked up speed .. Dolphin count going up from 22 to 33 (ref6) cannot be for no reason. National waterways project ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Waterway_1 ) is perhaps one of the least talked about , yet big impact project. One may disagree with certain decisions taken by the government, but everyone will have to agree - This govt doesnt shy away from decision and action !

ref1: https://www.chandrashekharpoddar.com/2018/03/3rdLarEleProIN.html?m=0

ref2: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jun/30/plastic-road-india-tar-plastic-transport-environment-pollution-waste

ref3: https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/4-years-of-modi-government-how-india-performed-in-renewable-energy-sector/1194517/

ref4: https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/clean-ganga-mission-gets-a-boost-varanasi-sewage-plant-to-clean-14-crore-litres-of-wastewater-everyday/story/290359.html

ref5: https://www.opindia.com/2018/11/ganga-cleaning-got-a-major-boost-the-river-got-rid-of-waste-from-asias-largest-sewer/

ref6: https://www.hindustantimes.com/noida/ganga-river-dolphins-count-rises-to-33-up-from-22-in-2015/story-7PHtZKeVh8q3gyGdQi1IOP.html

mitr5

As I type this fifth part of my "Merit Is the Reason" (MITR) series, "Uri:The Surgical Strike" movie fever has already gripped the country. Expected to cross 100cr today (10th day, second weekend) or soon, it has become popular especially among the youth. In the theater where I saw it twice, there were 3 shows-a-day in the first weekend. This weekend, they have 6 and all sold out

I had mentioned in the comments section of MITR-1 that terrorism and defense related topics will be covered in this part-5 and the timing couldn't have been better. But where do I begin ?

19th June 2014 - barely one month into Modi govt. Security forces receive intel about Adil Ahmed Mir, Hizbul Mujahideen (HM)'s area commander. Unlike a "wait for him to attack us" approach, a squad of 8 - from 3 Rashtriya Rifles and JK Police's special Operations group -- reach the spot, kill Adil and two other terrorists. 2 from the Indian squad gets injured, but the Operation was successful (ref1).  This would perhaps be the first of a series of such special operations under Modi govt -- I started tracking some of the hi-profile terrorists killed in this post and its comments here ( link ), but I could not keep up - 2017(213 killed) and 2018 (222+) Ops are tracked in wikipedia (Ref1). The article mentions about some operations during 2003, 2004 .. and there after mostly under Modi govt !

Pic courtesy: https://www.pgurus.com/shelf-life-of-terrorists-reduced-in-jammu-and-kashmir/

Interestingly Adil was the mentor and trainer for Burhan Wani and a detailed account of the encounter can be found in "India's most fearless" by Shiv Aroor and Rahul Singh. When one reads the book, one aspect stands out - Indian  Army's SOP demands that when an operation is launched based on Intel, utmost care has to be taken to ensure that it is indeed a terrorist and not a civilian mistaken. This means Army men take positions, literally call out "who are you?" (there by revealing their own positions and are exposed), and only based on the reaction (which in most cases is a volley of firing from the terrorist) act further. This amazing restraint from India's forces is a major factor that in spite of 200+ terrorists killed within Indian territory annually, there has been near zero accusations of civilian deaths, human rights violations etc -- OR if there has been any, it has been quite muted and not at an International pressure level -- which leads me to the two other factors that were needed for these operations to be possible - one, strong international relationship, and two cutting off the money supply, especially black money supply to terrorists and their "spokespersons"

Not just Kashmir terrorism, DeMo "broke the backbone of Naxal funding" also, and resulted in "increased number of naxal surrenders" [detailed report brought out in Oct 2018 is in Ref2]. This is where the genius of Modi-Doval combo makes it very different from previous govts. Their actions are not to be seen in isolation, not to be seen as reactive. Instead, its a carefully planned out strategy - a strategy for at least 5 years for sure.. Whether the strategy goes beyond 5 years, and whether there are still "dots to be connected", will be known only if India decides to re-elect Modi in a few months!

For those who have short memory, let me also remind readers of the implementation of OROP after it being stuck for 40 years [ Ref3 ], India's moral and diplomatic victory in Doklam [ Ref4 ] and indeed the fact that terrorist attack on civilians have been minimal, and even on Army men have considerably reduced after the "twin" (Pak and Myanmar) surgical strikes

Unfortunately, for some people, expectations are too high from Modi. They want him to solve all the mess that non-BJP govts have created for 60 years - within 5 years. One can only hope that Indian masses will not let down the "best-so-far" in demand (bordering greed) of an imaginary "even-better"

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Ref1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_operations_in_Jammu_and_Kashmir

Ref2: http://www.pprc.in/upload/Demonetization%20-%20Impact%20on%20Combating%20Naxalism.pdf

Ref3: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/government-delivered-on-orop-promise-committed-to-army-narendra-modi/articleshow/60928403.cms

Ref4: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-doklam-crisis-ends-a-diplomatic-victory-for-india/

mitr4

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Quoting straight from this article "One of the important yardstick to measure the financial health of an economy is Fiscal deficit. It is the difference between the government revenues and expenditure. The difference is generally bridged by debt. The present government is committed to reduce the gap. The long term fiscal deficit target is 3% of the Gross domestic product (GDP)"



Clearly, the UPA government had been spending much more than the revenue -- given that it was not much in infrastructure and long term development projects, what must that have been ? One, quite likely projects with a lot of "leak" ..

example1: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/fund-leakage-nearly-a-crore-fake-job-cards-struck-off-from-mgnrega-scheme/story-JpsHg1k0mKNE5BNxKF4aKL.html  "cancelled job cards amount to more than 14% of the active households engaged in the job scheme, launched by the previous Congress-led UPA government"

example2: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/rs-44000-crore-loan-waiver-has-helped-only-800-farmers-so-far-karnataka/articleshow/67069947.cms (not exactly a UPA example, but to show how money is lost in poor implementation of schemes, and may even benefit those who don't deserve it)

The Modi govt on the other had as tried its best to reduce the fiscal deficit. In 2016-17 it met the target of 3.5% ; Jaitley wanted an ambitious target of 3.2% for 2017-18, but later reestimated and met a 3.5% again. For an  2019, yet again govt started off with an ambitious 3.3% plan, but in election year, with potential benefit schemes (and as I type it, govt has just reduced tax of bunch of items to 18% or less), it is likely to not meet 3.3%, but as per latest reports, is poised again at 3.5%


Quoting two more articles related to Modi's impact while dealing with other Nations, and some data on IIP and so on


https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/opec-to-consider-modi-s-views-on-slashing-oil-prices-saudi-energy-minister-118120700094_1.html


https://www.livemint.com/Industry/J7bedNXvkbJkv21RYM6gRI/Industrial-production-up-75-in-January.html


To me, what had been most striking about Modi govt is that it has been not willing to compromise much "for the sake of votes". Priority has been for measures for long term stability as well as to uplift the Indian mind set from a "want subsidy on everything". Will the Indian voter rise up ?


One may be tempted to quote recent assembly election results (Raj, MP, Chattisgarh) as examples of Congress subsidy Raj (or promises to that effect) "winning" again. I tend to disagree. Indian voter is getting more and more "result oriented" (and especially with more youth getting added). The trend will continue -- caste based and subsidy based politics will take a back seat. Modi is accelerating it


Except in Chattisgarh , the vote share for BJP has not been bad at all - and remember, it was a vote after 3 successive terms on state govts. The VS is likely to rise in favor of Modi, but the next 3-4 months are critical for BJP -- it has to remind the voters, that it stands for #IndiaFirst

mitr3

In the first part mitr1 I had couple of pictures of Consumer Price Index posted. That post was at a time when the fuel prices had already started "going up". For comparison, let me use this link and the Delhi prices. Jan 1st was at about 70/- , by June 14 when I had the post it had gone up to 76.43 , mid sept saw it hit 82, and end sept even 84 .

Clearly that had some impact on inflation -- what I understand from https://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/india/current-cpi-inflation-india.aspx is that from a near 4% in Apr-June quarter, it went to 5.61 in July-Sept quarter. Yet, compare it with the average inflation numbers of UPA year -- 10.8 in 2009, 12.1 in 2010 , 8.9 in 2011 , 9.3 in 2012 and 10.9 in 2013 !!

And even more interestingly go to https://tradingeconomics.com/india/food-inflation and give the 1 year option and it is interesting to see that it has kept low even in the July-Sept quarter of 2018. And overall, see the graph below, it is amply clear that Modi government has been successful in keeping it in control - much below the UPA numbers, especially since end-2016 .. 2 years straight, below 5% !

In short, a fuel price increase from about 70/- to 80/- (which is about 14%) has not caused the general commodity and food inflation to go that high. They have been in the range of 5% at max 

But do the common man really appreciate these numbers "on paper" - Is he not pained with the rising fuel prices ? Yes, rising fuel prices will impact the monthly budget of a middle class family - but by how much ? If you own a two wheeler and assume 40km a day on an average, and yet again assume that means almost 1 litre of petrol - that is about 30 litres of petrol a month - so a change of 10 Rs per litre is an additional 300/- If it is a car owning family -- well, then you are already inching closer to an "upper middle class"-- the difference may be that of 1000/-  [ 10km per litre, 1000 kms a month, i.e 100 litres.. Rs 10 additional, is a 1000/- extra]

These are average numbers, and I am not saying that a 1000/- is meager, but then the grocery (food and essential commodities) budget of such a family would typically be much higher - let us say 20K per month. A 5% increase in that would still keep it at 1000/- extra, where as a 10% increase would mean 2000 and 14% would have meant 2800/- additional per month . Play of numbers one might say, but I continue to feel that government has done a good job - well, time will tell in the form of election

So that was mostly about "Roti", and in some sense "kapda" too (well, I mean the daily commodities, not necessarily only clothing). That leaves me with "makaan" from what I had intended to cover in this part-3 . I do not have data from every city of India, but simply looking at the flat prices in Bangalore and land prices in Kerala, it is quite clear that "skyrocketing" seen during the 2010-13 time frame has long stopped. I had mentioned in my previous post that a big reason could have been the steps against black money, but another factor must also be the relatively low inflation rates 

And indirectly , the PM awaz yajana must have also contributed to this "stabilization" . Looking up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pradhan_Mantri_Awas_Yojana , of the 20 million planned by 2022 (when India celebrates 75 years of Independence after colonial rule) , only 4 million has been "approved" as of Feb 2018 .. In 4 years, the project has to scale 4 times. Yet, the very concept and initiative has given people hopes -- I personally have heard a lot of people talk about it -- and this might turn out to be one of the game changers, in not just being a social welfare scheme, but also in triggering jobs and boosting production and economy. 

In other words, this seems to be one of the biggest "investments" that the government itself is making, and its dividends should soon start paying off - in fact, it already has in controlling prices

PS: When I posted mitr2 , India was at 100 in ease of doing business index and as I post this third part, it has jumped 23 positions to 77 ! News here 

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mitr2

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"shreyaaMsi bahu vighnaani bhavanti mahataamapi" - even for the noble, when it comes to doing good things, lot of obstacles will be faced. Doing nothing is easy and invites less criticism !!

In this part-2 I had decided to take up the big-bang decisions - GST, DeMo, Aadhaar, Make-in-India, push for start-ups etc. Being not an expert at economics, I will have to piggyback on existing articles.

a) Aadhaar - Aadhaar today is not just a number. The Congress envisaged it as a means of identity but the Modi government has taken it to a different level. It has become a weapon in the hands of the poor and a powerful tool to fight entrenched black money interests. It is now a symbol of anti-corruption, anti-black money drives, a symbol of efficient allocation of welfare benefits. ref-1

b) GST - (Before 1Jul2017 opposition parties accused) the Government of pressing ahead with a half-baked measure when not everyone was ready . Yet, the Modi Government went ahead and stuck to the July 1 date for implementing the GST which has been called the single most important tax reform since Independence. A year later, the nay-sayers seem to have been silenced.... The switch from multiple taxes to a single, omnibus country-wide tax was painful but eventually successful. ..... GST regime is still a work in progress. As digitisation of the economy grows, there will be more transparency and less tax evasion and theft. ref-2 

 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/live-world-bank-ease-doing-business-india-rank-narendra-modi-2424425.html

 c) DeMo - A lot has already been said on this. There is perhaps no direct way to assess if it was a great idea or not. I go by the seemingly indirect impacts -- I know for a fact that the real estate prices that were skyrocketing during UPA-2 became stable, sometimes even went down. Inflation has kept really low as was shown in part-1 of my post. Terror funding got impacted big time ref-3 

d) Make-in-India and start-ups : Perhaps a detailed study is lacking.. There is the PwC analysis of 2018 (ref 4) but that speaks more about the initiatives in this years budget. Perhaps, these initiatives have not happened at the pace that the common man wanted, but then come on, from an economy in slumber and shatters by 2013-14, it clearly needs time to pick up. And Make-in-India is something that is not going to be easy after 70 years of being a major "technology importer". Yet, look at this

.import bill made by finished mobile phones in the country have been drastically down to $3.4 billion in 2017 and is likely to fall further to $2 billion in 2018.The import of mobile phones like Google Pixel 2 or iPhone X has been continuously going down for the few past years. In 2014, the total import of these phones stood at 205 million. In 2017, however, the total number fell to 77 million; and is expected to fall even more to 31 million in 2018. After witnessing a massive growth in sales and production of ‘Made In India’ mobile phones, the govt is expecting the production level of mobile handsets will hit 22.5 crore mark this year (ref - 5) 

As for startups, clearly there has been a big boost post 2014, with a small dip in 2016 (ref-6). A careful study will also show that these seemingly different measures are well connected to each other, with a great intent , and a pace f execution that no previous Indian govt has done before. Perhaps no other government in the world has ever achieved as some report said recently 

1) https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/yieldcurve/aadhaar-is-modis-brahmastra-for-2019-polls-will-sink-opposition/

2) http://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/success-of-gst-in-one-year/1309562

3) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/demonetisation-effect-funds-tap-turns-dry-for-terror-and-maoist-groups/articleshow/55448082.cms

4) https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/budget/2018/sectoral-analysis-india-riding-the-growth-wave.pdf

5) https://entrackr.com/2018/02/made-india-mobile-phones/

6) https://benchmark.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/fintech-a-wintech-in-india-

mitr1

MITR1: The canvas : 2014 vis-a-vis 2019 

The UPA is in the tenth year of its existence. As the general elections approach the UPA is confronted with a huge anti-incumbancy. There is a visible leadership failure. Its leadership is seen to be ineffective.  Its governance is highly inadequate. The government has run out of ideas on how to bring the economy back on rail. The UPA has added corruption as a new directive principle of state policy. The ten year misrule of the UPA reflects on how ‘The Indian story’ was effectively destroyed. After UPA’s miserable track record of governance the need for an effective and clean government are the key agendas for the forthcoming general elections

Above words are from a rediff article of July 2013 (ref:1) , almost 10 months before the General Elections 2014 . Some more digging of data will show that those 10 months did not make things any better, if anything made them worse. I remember going to the local body office to get my voter-id made .. (Yes in spite of being pro one party for years, I did not vote.. but 2014, the urge was irresistible) . Scores of youngsters, many in the most modern looking outfits, thronged the same office .. some were there for a second time wanting to find out "what happened to my application?". The sense or urgency was obvious

In spite of that obvious undercurrent, even the hard core BJP supporter perhaps never felt that on its own BJP  will cross 272 (282 at that time, but due to bye-poll losses, the number is now closer to 270). The amount of desperation and hence anti-incumbency was underestimated (who would have thought Cong will be down to a mere 44) . But perhaps more importantly, the lack of opposition unity was a bigger factor. BJP won 52% of the seats with an overall voteshare of 31%, which by the way is perfectly normal in a setup like Indian elections. Some say many of those smaller parties thought before the 2014 elections that it will be a hung result and so it can play the kingmaker role - like what happened with Kumaraswamy's JDS in 2018 Karnataka assembly

But realization has fast caught up with these parties that not uniting before the 2019 general elections, will again help BJP. Bye-elections have been a 'proving ground' for them. Be it the Loksabha elections of Gorakhpur or Kairana in UP or the assembly election of Jayanagar in Karnataka. So does that mean that its a lost cause for BJP if in 2019 too, like the bye-elections, the opposition parties unite ? After all in 2014, BJP got only 31% voteshare, so all it takes is even half of the remaining 69% to unite, isn't it ? Indeed, opposition unity will be a big challenge for BJP, but things dont work in an arithmetic fashion.. see the below analysis from the Kairana bye-election

In 2014, late BJP MP Hukum Singh secured more than 50 per cent of the vote share which was more than the combined votes of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, contesting separately. The BJP MP won by a huge margin of 2,36,988 votes. In 2017, during the UP assembly elections also the BJP maintained its hegemony and four out of five assembly constituencies of Kairana Lok Sabha seat was won by the party. But then the vote share of the BJP was 38.2% whereas the vote share of the united opposition was 57.2% with a difference of 19 %. However, in the recently concluded Kairana By-polls this massive gap of 19% has been just reduced to a mere 4.6%. Vote share of the united opposition candidate is around 51% and vote share of the BJP candidate is around 46%.  [ref-2]

One can look at it from two ways -- one, in the bye-election, BJP could not manage the >50% vote share that it got in 2014. Two, it did however manage to reduce the gap compared to the assembly election result. If anything, one thing should be clear. The voting patterns have become so complex that no psephologist can predict what is going on. Which is where perhaps the unspoken, unwritten Amit Shah mantra makes sense .. keep trying to maximize the vote share...  remember Gujarat 2017 -  see pic-1 . True BJP could not garner the 60% it got in 2014LS, but if it had not been able to make that 1.5% or so improvement over 2012, it may have fallen short of majority.. and remember, even a seat or two short of majority, its likely that others will grab power. 

Modi's target for 2019 should then be 50% voteshare... Wow, that sounds crazy isnt it ? Increase the vote for BJP from 31% to 50% .. a jump by 2/3. Forget 50%, isn't even 40% a day dream -- in 2014, in spite of such desperate situation, BJP could get only 31%. In 2019, there will be "anti-incumbency" too.. 

And already there is the "middle class" that is not happy for not raising the tax slabs to its expectations.. for not reducing the fuel prices when global prices fell and so on .. and the hindutva class for the "govt not doing enough for the hindu causes".. and indeed the "dont need reasons, will never vote BJP" class too

The counter narrative seems to be predominantly rooted in the TINA or RITA  arguments. That there is no dependable alternative.. or that Rahul is the alternative..  There surely is a big percentage of people, for whom definitely the govt has done better that UPA, and feel that if Modi isnt relected, and Cong or a coalition comes to power, it will be "back to square one". In other words, the line that "BJP has not given me enough reasons to vote for it in 2019, but Cong has given me more than enough reasons that I will vote for BJP again in 2019". I go one step more - does Modi deserve to be re-elected on its merits?

I have followed politics and governments in India from Sep 1989 onwards.. so about to complete 29 years. Of all the governments I have seen in that span, I absolutely have no doubt that the current govt is #1 .. Its an inner conviction that no amount of counter propaganda can change, but can I express myself to convince the following a) voted for Modi in 2014, but thinking of opposition or NOTA in 2019 .. b) did not vote in 2014, perhaps not even made a voter-card .. c) Voted against BJP in 2014 .. Clearly it gets tougher from a to c. 

But here I attempt.. a 10 part series - Merit Is The Reason (MITR) -to vote for BJP/Modi in 2019. In the comments section, I post what I plan for Part2-10, but for the impatient ones, I leave you with one chart for now, comparing inflation percentages of UPA-2 vs "NDA-2"(i.e Modi) .. see pic-2

 mitr1 | mitr2 | mitr3 | mitr4 | mitr5 | mitr6 | mitr7 | mitr8

1) http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-is-the-congress-trying-to-communalise-2014-elections/20130722.htm

2) https://rightlog.in/2018/06/bjp-kairana-elections-congress-01/ 

3) Pic-1 from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/gujarat-verdict-explained-bjp-gains-1-25-in-vote-share-than-2012-but-loses-16-seats-heres-why/articleshow/62126440.cms

4) Pic-2 from http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/india/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-india.aspx

The 72 percent vote

5-days and a few hours after this post, Karnataka will go for elections

Much water has flowed in Kaveri since my last blog post. From a situation of "Congress will be the biggest party with close to 100, but may need JDS help", it went to 90-90 (neck and neck) in an opinion poll a few weeks back and now to ~105 for BJP and ~75 for Congress ..

I feel that many things have gone right for BJP in the last few weeks.. BSY is not running a thump-chesting campaign, instead has been much more grounded. His not giving ticket to his son, has been a moral victory, especially as Siddhu has actually given to his son..  The fact that Siddhu, State cong and even central Cong are attacking "Reddy brothers" on corruption, and not BSY , perhaps is testimony that BSY has gotten over the allegations that were against him last time. And he has very tactfully let Amit Shah reply to the "Reddy Brothers are corrupt" allegation, who has simply in his style categorically stated "The two Reddy brothers who are contesting have no cases against them".. Yea, some times speaking just the enough words is an art .. and Shah indeed has mastered it

The Congress has made blunder after blunder -- first of all, campaigning started too early.. secondly, Siddhu started developing cold feet and decided to contest a second seat .. (which he in turn kept  "secret" for many days). While in Chamundeswari BJP perhaps has decided to let JDS take its "badla" on Siddhu, by fielding SriRamulu in Badami, it made sure, if anything Siddhu will have to sweat it out there also, and so will get lesser time to focus on rest of the state. And finally, Rahul Gandhi, in his own style that no others can match, messed up what could have been a natural advantage to Congress (did I not see a news that state Cong leaders were begging him not to come ?)

But wait, the game is not over yet ... A heavy rain on May12, and its likely that lesser BJP voters may go out than lesser Cong voters .. So I tend to believe that a clear majority for BJP will depend on  72% voter turn out ... (I basically mean high voter turn out.. 72 is a play of numbers)

And here is my "72% reason" to vote..  As the Buddhist saying goes, Dhamma, Sangha and Buddha are important.. Dhamma is BJP's principles, for which I give it a 30 out of 40 ..  Sangha is the "group of people from BJP from the state".. this includes people whom I personally know, and the existing MLAs, corporators etc.. I give them a 20 on 30 ..  Buddha is a combination of Modi (Center), BSY (State), and the MLA candidate.. cos all three matter.. I give 15 on 20 (of course, Modi does well..).. and finally the "others" is about manifesto and how well BJP has "presented" itself etc and I give them a 7 out of 10 ... that adds up as 72% .... and this by the way, is my 272nd blog post !!

PS: I would vote only if the "threshold" of 70 is crossed.. It seems to in this case.. it did not, in BBMP elections and hence I did not vote !



   

An open request to Shri B S Yeddyurappa

Shri B S Yeddyurappaji, Namaste

Let me give a brief background about myself -  I did BTech from IIT Madras, MS from Univ of Maryland, was there in US for about 7 years before returning to India in 2008 . I was in Chennai 2008-2012 and moved to Bengaluru in early 2012. So it has now been 6 years in Bengaluru 

I have been a keen follower of Indian politics from the time of Ayodhya movement - I have keenly watched every General election since (and including) 1989, when I was 10yrs old, and many state elections. If being Nationalist means being pro-BJP, then I will gladly accept that I am one. However, even after returning to India in 2008, I never voted in an election until the general election of 2014

By the two paragraphs above, it must be obvious that during the last Karnataka Assembly election of 2013, I was there in Bengaluru, but did not vote. If I were to vote, in the present political scenario, it would be for the BJP, but in 2013, I simply did not feel that the work done by the BJP govt for 2008-2013 merited it to be voted back to power. Let me in fact rewind to 2008 - if I remember it right, you had indeed created history by winning against Bangarappa who had the backing of both INC and JDS . You had for the first time helped BJP gain majority in a south Indian state. The expectations were high, but I regret to say that the general impression is that it was not lived up to

I admit that by the time I moved to Bengaluru in early 2012, you were no more the ChiefMinister. I also learn from some articles that many of the corruption charges against you eventually did not stand legal scrutiny .. I have not studied them in detail, but let me give you the benefit of doubt and stick to the dictum that "Not guilty until proven guilty". But the fact remains that you had not instilled confidence on two counts --> a) that you are above corruption and b) you will deliver on vikaas

Did I have that hope when I voted for NarendraModi in 2014 ? Yes, absolutely. Do I still have that confidence to vote for him again in 2019 ? Yes, double absolutely . In fact I am hoping to do a blog post on "It is not RITA (Rahul Is The Alternative) or TINA (There Is No Alternative) because of which one should vote for Narendra Modi, but MITR - Merit Is The Reason". As I said, I have analyzed politics in India for close to 30 years now, and I will pitch Modi govt as the best so far.

 It is the conviction that Modi is not just incorruptible himself, but will try to prevent it wherever he can, that makes me comfortable voting again in 2019. It is the perception that he has, is and will try his best for vikaas (by the way, I saw that first hand during a 7-day trip to NorthEast) that makes me put my weight behind him - the 50 things that couldn't be achieved doesn't matter to me as long as you tried , and as long as there are 50 other things that you actually achieved with your hard work. The problem with previous BJP Karnataka state govt was that it gave the impression that it did not even try - I could clearly experience that in the 15months or so I was in Bengaluru before the 2013 state elections. Excuses of what happened then are now irrelevant, except for "lessons learned"

My Kannada friends say you are the CM face (even if unofficial) of BJP this time. I wish you good luck, and I am willing to vote this time - given that the current Congress government has even been a greater disappointment and almost a disaster for the state of Karnataka and city of Bengaluru - but I hope you wont disappoint this time. Please be a true leader, in delivering on holistic development, in being connected to the people, and eventually also in nurturing new and young talent to take over

The next two months leading up to the elections, I will watch your and your party's promises and priorities keenly, contribute with ideas where I can, and if I feel confident, my vote is for you