The numbers that matter

It is interesting to see that most of the non-BJP campaigners (Congresswallahs, the likes of Sharad Pawar, the Yechuris and Karat, and of course AK49) have made it a habit these days to keep repeating "there is no Modi wave". I bet that even in their sleep they must be waking up with the Modi cry and checking their bed !

So then, what exactly are the criteria to determine whether there is  modi wave or not ? Here is my take - BJP (not NDA) won about 116 seats in 2009 . A 50% increase in that can be attributed to anti-incumbency against current govt - so that makes it 174, which is also close to the maximum BJP has won so far which is 182 (1998 and 1999). Anything more than that, I would say is a Modi effect. In fact I would say the following if BJP alone wins as below

Modi wave: 50% - 75% increase - i.e 175 to 203
Modi flood: 75%-100% more, i.e 204 - 232
Modi Tsunami: > 100% more... i.e anything more than 232

Note that even the current UPA (not Congress, but UPA) has only 231 seats, and the rest is outside support. So a single party reaching 232+ will be an amazing achievement given the current multi party scenario and deserves a Tsunami name. We will know on May 16 if there is no Modi effect or if it is a wave, flood or a Tsunami.

For now,  we will have to depend on opinion polls. I do not believe that these are fool proof - not so much because of fear of being rigged by one party or other, but simply because the electorate numbers are huuge ( 80 crore+ ?) and a complex mix, and a sample size in the tens of thousand range is too small . Yet, these numbers may give a small sense, and being a number-man, I like to analyze these, knowing quite well that to a good extend these are fictitious. So for whatever it is worth, here is the table for NDA (Not BJP alone) as perdicted in end-March.

Sources:

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/ndtv-opinion-poll-advantage-nda-game-changer-uttar-pradesh-504607?curl=1396715705  (gives NDA - 33% vote share and UPA 27% )

http://ibnlive.in.com/newstopics/election-tracker.html ( NDA - 38%, UPA - 28%)

CNN-IBN does not give projected seats for "smaller states", and for the bigger ones too it gives a range. I have taken the average of that range in such cases.The averages of states however may not add up to the average of the final number given to NDA. IBN numbers are mainly to see where it sort of matched the NDTV numbers and where it does not.

It is interesting to note that the two opinion polls have significant differences in some matters - for example IBN gives NDA a 10% vote more than UPA and NDTV gives only 6% more, and this despite the fact that IBN has not counted TDP as part of NDA where as NDTV has !  States with 4 or more seats difference in prediction are mentioned in the comments section (Note: NDTVs seemandhra+telengana almost match IBNs TDP =15). Inspite of all those differences, the number predicted for BJP alone (remember, for IBN, its an average of the 206-218 range) almost match for both these - somewhere around 212. That makes it fall into the Modi flood category !

When results are declared on May 16, will it indeed be in the flood region ? Will it slip back into the wave region, or can it get into the Tsunami region ? If it is indeed in the flood region, and as predicted, gets the NDA to the 255 mark, where will the extra 20 come from ? AIADMK ? TRS ? YSRC ? BJD and TMC have said they will not support NDA, but will that change if BJP agrees for a non-Modi PM ? Time alone can answer !!

State	Total	NDTV	CNN-IBN	Comment
Bihar	40	21	25	IBN +4
Assam	14	3
Chattisgarh	11	8
Delhi	7	4	4
Gujarat	26	22	23
Haryana	10	5
Jharkand	14	10
Karnataka	28	16	10	IBN -6
Kerala	20	0	0
MP	29	25	26
Mah	48	36	27	IBN -9
Orissa	21	0	5	IBN +5
Punjab	13	6
Rajasthan	25	21	23
Seemandhra	25	14	0	IBN No TDP
TN	39	3	8	IBN +5
Telengana	17	2	0	IBN No TDP
UP	80	53	46	IBN -7
WB	42	0
Others	34	10
Total	543	259	240	IBN-TDP=15
BJP alone		214	212