The 72 percent vote

5-days and a few hours after this post, Karnataka will go for elections

Much water has flowed in Kaveri since my last blog post. From a situation of "Congress will be the biggest party with close to 100, but may need JDS help", it went to 90-90 (neck and neck) in an opinion poll a few weeks back and now to ~105 for BJP and ~75 for Congress ..

I feel that many things have gone right for BJP in the last few weeks.. BSY is not running a thump-chesting campaign, instead has been much more grounded. His not giving ticket to his son, has been a moral victory, especially as Siddhu has actually given to his son..  The fact that Siddhu, State cong and even central Cong are attacking "Reddy brothers" on corruption, and not BSY , perhaps is testimony that BSY has gotten over the allegations that were against him last time. And he has very tactfully let Amit Shah reply to the "Reddy Brothers are corrupt" allegation, who has simply in his style categorically stated "The two Reddy brothers who are contesting have no cases against them".. Yea, some times speaking just the enough words is an art .. and Shah indeed has mastered it

The Congress has made blunder after blunder -- first of all, campaigning started too early.. secondly, Siddhu started developing cold feet and decided to contest a second seat .. (which he in turn kept  "secret" for many days). While in Chamundeswari BJP perhaps has decided to let JDS take its "badla" on Siddhu, by fielding SriRamulu in Badami, it made sure, if anything Siddhu will have to sweat it out there also, and so will get lesser time to focus on rest of the state. And finally, Rahul Gandhi, in his own style that no others can match, messed up what could have been a natural advantage to Congress (did I not see a news that state Cong leaders were begging him not to come ?)

But wait, the game is not over yet ... A heavy rain on May12, and its likely that lesser BJP voters may go out than lesser Cong voters .. So I tend to believe that a clear majority for BJP will depend on  72% voter turn out ... (I basically mean high voter turn out.. 72 is a play of numbers)

And here is my "72% reason" to vote..  As the Buddhist saying goes, Dhamma, Sangha and Buddha are important.. Dhamma is BJP's principles, for which I give it a 30 out of 40 ..  Sangha is the "group of people from BJP from the state".. this includes people whom I personally know, and the existing MLAs, corporators etc.. I give them a 20 on 30 ..  Buddha is a combination of Modi (Center), BSY (State), and the MLA candidate.. cos all three matter.. I give 15 on 20 (of course, Modi does well..).. and finally the "others" is about manifesto and how well BJP has "presented" itself etc and I give them a 7 out of 10 ... that adds up as 72% .... and this by the way, is my 272nd blog post !!

PS: I would vote only if the "threshold" of 70 is crossed.. It seems to in this case.. it did not, in BBMP elections and hence I did not vote !



   

An open request to Shri B S Yeddyurappa

Shri B S Yeddyurappaji, Namaste

Let me give a brief background about myself -  I did BTech from IIT Madras, MS from Univ of Maryland, was there in US for about 7 years before returning to India in 2008 . I was in Chennai 2008-2012 and moved to Bengaluru in early 2012. So it has now been 6 years in Bengaluru 

I have been a keen follower of Indian politics from the time of Ayodhya movement - I have keenly watched every General election since (and including) 1989, when I was 10yrs old, and many state elections. If being Nationalist means being pro-BJP, then I will gladly accept that I am one. However, even after returning to India in 2008, I never voted in an election until the general election of 2014

By the two paragraphs above, it must be obvious that during the last Karnataka Assembly election of 2013, I was there in Bengaluru, but did not vote. If I were to vote, in the present political scenario, it would be for the BJP, but in 2013, I simply did not feel that the work done by the BJP govt for 2008-2013 merited it to be voted back to power. Let me in fact rewind to 2008 - if I remember it right, you had indeed created history by winning against Bangarappa who had the backing of both INC and JDS . You had for the first time helped BJP gain majority in a south Indian state. The expectations were high, but I regret to say that the general impression is that it was not lived up to

I admit that by the time I moved to Bengaluru in early 2012, you were no more the ChiefMinister. I also learn from some articles that many of the corruption charges against you eventually did not stand legal scrutiny .. I have not studied them in detail, but let me give you the benefit of doubt and stick to the dictum that "Not guilty until proven guilty". But the fact remains that you had not instilled confidence on two counts --> a) that you are above corruption and b) you will deliver on vikaas

Did I have that hope when I voted for NarendraModi in 2014 ? Yes, absolutely. Do I still have that confidence to vote for him again in 2019 ? Yes, double absolutely . In fact I am hoping to do a blog post on "It is not RITA (Rahul Is The Alternative) or TINA (There Is No Alternative) because of which one should vote for Narendra Modi, but MITR - Merit Is The Reason". As I said, I have analyzed politics in India for close to 30 years now, and I will pitch Modi govt as the best so far.

 It is the conviction that Modi is not just incorruptible himself, but will try to prevent it wherever he can, that makes me comfortable voting again in 2019. It is the perception that he has, is and will try his best for vikaas (by the way, I saw that first hand during a 7-day trip to NorthEast) that makes me put my weight behind him - the 50 things that couldn't be achieved doesn't matter to me as long as you tried , and as long as there are 50 other things that you actually achieved with your hard work. The problem with previous BJP Karnataka state govt was that it gave the impression that it did not even try - I could clearly experience that in the 15months or so I was in Bengaluru before the 2013 state elections. Excuses of what happened then are now irrelevant, except for "lessons learned"

My Kannada friends say you are the CM face (even if unofficial) of BJP this time. I wish you good luck, and I am willing to vote this time - given that the current Congress government has even been a greater disappointment and almost a disaster for the state of Karnataka and city of Bengaluru - but I hope you wont disappoint this time. Please be a true leader, in delivering on holistic development, in being connected to the people, and eventually also in nurturing new and young talent to take over

The next two months leading up to the elections, I will watch your and your party's promises and priorities keenly, contribute with ideas where I can, and if I feel confident, my vote is for you

   

Sanskrit in Parliament

While I tweeted this - https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/953622076522340362 - I wanted to a post on the instances in which Sanskrit has been spoken in Parliament ( Indian .. for now ) debates

Here is from a random search, I hope that the list grows as I come to know more .. and in future

1)  http://parliamentofindia.nic.in/ls/debates/vol7p20a.htm Shri H V Kamath quotes MahaBharata 5.35.49 ..  see http://www.sacred-texts.com/hin/mbs/mbs05035.htm 

2) na bheetO maranaadasmi .. Vajpayee, 1996 May-June .. see https://kalpanamuzumdar.wordpress.com/tag/dooshita/ or https://www.indianscriptures.com/gems-subhashitah-part-1/

(Clearly, Vajpayee's is perhaps much more natural and correct pronunciation) 

3)  amantraM akSharam naasti .. see my previous blogpost http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2006/01/more-of-my-fav-shlokas.html (it should have been amantram akSharaM ... etc)

4) jaanaami dharmam na cha mE pravRuttiH | jaanaamyadharmam na cha mE nivRuttiH ||

reposting an old one

It is said that Shloka comes out of Shoka (as in Ramayana). Not a shloka, but here is an old poem, written at a time when I was going through a lot of issues, academically and otherwise.. posted once in Jan 2006, posting again after 12 years with some minor updates.. - "certainly uncertain"

from: http://quotesonimages.com/i/the-only-constant-is-uncertainty-quotes-9337

As a little kid when time is all what you had
Happy you were making houses of card
And little did you think while pulling each one
That uncertainty is life’s only fun

Hopes you keep, even as you see others suffer
Life sure has for me better things to offer
Soon you realize that in the world that’s real
Uncertainty is the only truth, that's never partial

When the road you took seems so uphill
You pray and pray for a stronger will
Sure for stretches you will have some one
But forever uncertainty is your only companion

Oft you find yourself doing a thankless job
Many a time does it make you sob
And yet there is hardly a chance you want to miss
For uncertainty is life's only promise

And one fine moment you find yourself enjoy
For the seers of the yore knew you are nothing but joy
And thankful you are for those moments you find
For uncertainty is life's only background

tip up for future fane

Note: fane in archaic English means temple. This is in some sense "part2" of previous post

16 May 2014 : A day when many of the 35+ "RW" activists' belief got shattered - in a pleasant way. Many of us had deep within felt, in our lifetime we will not see a RW party like BJP winning on its own - it is going to be either a Congress led coalition, or a BJP led, limited by allies coalition..

By noon that day, it was clear - history was being made, notions were being rewritten.. I had taken leave that day, at home switching my eyes between TV and internet to get the latest.. When it became clear that it was a comfortable majority on its own, and a thumping one for NDA, I was emotionally overwhelmed.. Spoke to my friend in US with whom I had done many of my activism over there .. His almost immediate reaction was "Tu iske chakkar me mat pad..." ... (Do not get swept away by this) ... He continued ... "Our responsibility and work has only increased.. Govt or not, we have work to do..." .. I would not claim that I put his words into practice, but I can say, he had it spot on..

Flashback further: 2004 general elections.. I was in US .. It was sleeping time by the time counting started, but then work up the next day for a shock.. Vajpayee had lost .. I have in some of my previous posts analyzed this one, so dont want to repeat it.. but two quick points (a) BJP's tally went from 182 to 138 (24% reduction), and its allies nosedived from about 90 seats to 47 or so - almost 50%
(b) While in power, BJP had no strong Party Presidents (Khushabhau Thakre, Bangaru Lakshman, Jana Krishnamurthy and Venkaiah Naidu -- none of whom had great organizational capabilities )

On both the above counts, 2019 is different from 2004 .. Amit Shah continues to aim at a big number on its own, and he has been to nook and corner of this country, to get even that single seat that he can swing his way, to compensate for possible losses due to anti-incumbency.. I could see the effect in NE

Yet, there is the other major factor -- "disenchantment" among BJP supporters/Sangh itself.. In many ways, this group was disappointed in 2004 .. India's not at all convincing reply to the IC-814 hijack episode, the increase in Haj subsidy (which earned PM the name "Haj"payee among sangh circles), Vajpayee's perceived ill health (his pause between words had become really long), and no progress on the original core issues of BJP - Ayodhya, UCC and Article 370 .. Now, at a not-so-deep level, let me quickly categorize those who would have voted for BJP in 2014 -- a) hard-core supporters, come what may they will vote BJP (as long as no major messups).. b) issue based BJP supporters c) BJP supporters (even internet activists), normally lazy to vote, but 2014 saw them vote d) disenchanted congress/other-party voters  e) no real political inclination, but vote based on aspirations/hopes


In some ways, people have started comparing 2019 to 2004 -- there has been an increased feeling that "Hindu issues" have not been addressed enough... temples have not been freed from governments, whip has not been cracked enough on "conversionists" etc .. I think the feeling is more in the b or c category (though, I must admit, in reality it is not as black and white). I do not mean to criticize these folks, they do have a "right to complain", but at the same time, more often than not, they seem to look at the governments achievements (or the lack of it) through only 1 or 2 issues.. Just imagine for a second, this is a country of 125 crore.. with such diversity and complexity.. there is NO WAY you can satisfy one and all.. The Indian PMs job, if sincerely executed, is one of the toughest jobs on earth... And yet, in my opinion (and NOT as a passive onlooker, but having had my eyes, ears and brains closely glued to Indian politics for 28 years now), I will confidently say that this has been the best government so far in 30 years .. Could it have been better ? May be, but don't kill "good" for "ideal"

In many cases, for example when an otherwise pro-BJP person becomes disenchanted, say on twitter, many of the comments will be along the lines of "think of the alternate.. you want to bring Congress back to power ?" .. While I totally agree that such a situation will throw India back by yet another 10 years (the damage caused because of which will take years to repair), I will also say that TINA (There is No other good alternative) is not the only reason that Modi should be elected back in 2019.. On many many counts, it is "swayameva mrugendrataa" for this govt - deserves on its merit ..

Though I am no one really to do so, I have a little piece of advise for the pro-Hindu writers and activists -- I know that on many issues you feel govt did not do what it could, especially core Hindu issues.. and it is all fair to have brought those up for the last 3-4 years in a spirit of constructive criticism .. but perhaps, for the next one year, I would advise caution -- there will be many young generation folks, new voters, getting active within the next year or so ..  a criticism on a particular issue, if not understood in the proper context, can easily misguide them.. So why not, for the next one year, help the govt highlight its real achievements (publicly) and point out deficiencies (privately)

To those twitter activists who are still "disenchanted", I would say, take a break, go do some seva work - may be go help some poor children - look at their faces and think "What should I do, so that they have a bright future ?" .. and I sincerely believe you will find your answer and next steps...

trip down memory lane

A few days back, on twitter, some of the threads ended up as a discussion on the Nationalists writers on rediff of the early 2000s - https://twitter.com/RajeevSrinivasa/status/942200530301886464 and https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/942976110345707520 for example . That sent me down some nostalgic memories.. I had in a previous post ( here ) touched upon some aspects of my early political learning and leaning, but here I attempt to fill a few more gaps.. By the way, I do not use the words right wing and nationalist in a US context.. its vastly different..

So it was when I was about 10 yrs or so, around the year 1990, that the Ayodhya movement got me interested in politics. It was also the time when election related stuff --> predictions and discussions before the election ; almost live coverage during the counting day ; and post-results analysis --> started on TV (DD at that time). I remember being glued on to many of them, immaterial of whether my party of interest would be there or not .. Till I got into IIT, (that is at 17+) the focus was much on academics, so politics was just a side interest - on and off..

cartoon from: https://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/floppies.asp 

IIT Madras changed me in many ways.. from a person who would take part in "individual competitions" only because I inherently did not "trust" team work, I quickly transformed into someone who learned the importance of "sangha" .. thanks to the voluntary organizations I was part of at IITM .. I still "maintained" my own activist-identify as well though, as I continued to do things even outside the organization, in an individual capacity .. some of them had a secretive nature too, which I enjoyed.. for example, I single-handedly did some "counter-propaganda" work, and would silently listen into the hostel-mess discussions "who dunnit" .. what I sensed at IIT was that there was an overall "tilt to the right" among the youth, but the ones who would really "do something" were rare -- partly the "self" being higher in priority, and partly perhaps the shyness of being labelled. 

 

The lessons learned and in some sense the "training" received from IITM was of immense help for the almost 6 yrs (out of 7) of active volunteerism while in US .. I will not elaborate on the "ground work" -- suffice to say that when I look back, I feel happy, for I must be among a handful of Indians who would have gotten an opportunity to do that kind of work (in 3 "main areas" I would say).. Not to say that those 6 yrs (and the 4yrs at IITM) are "good enough" and I will stop working.. but I do tell myself, those 10yrs I have done so much, that I wont regret if I die this very moment.. and yes, I continue to do what I can -- the 9.5yrs so far, after I returned to India -- perhaps I have done work equivalent to may be just 1 yr worth of of the scale I did for those 10 yrs, but then I take it as a bonus

That was a bit too much bragging about myself :-) .. let me get back to the point of discussion of those twitter threads .. yes, those early 2000s when I was in US, I used to look fwd for those articles from Varsha, Rajeev et al.. those used to the "extra adrenaline"...  It used to appear as a "losing battle", with almost 99% of main stream media towing a line that was not healthy for India.. (for a brief period, my housemates and I subscribed for Washington Post, and seeing Rama Lakshmi spew venom, I decided to not pay for it any more..  such pathetic articles were written about India .. indeed , the root was the Indian media outlets themselves which always used to paint a grim picture ) . Added to that was the feeling that a vast majority of the english educated youth did not care - be it in US or in India..  But years thence, looking back, it appears that there was a silent new generation itself being built up .. 

A parallel stream to Varsha and Rajeev were the likes of Dr Kalyanaraman, Vishal Agarwal and so on (Rajiv Malhotra , in my opinion, for a long long time was too "academic", he got into an "activist" mode only recently) and the "voice of india" publications...  Not to miss out on the "non-Indian" contributors there -- David Frawley,  Koenraad Elst , Yvette Rosser and so on ... So where does "sangh" fall into all this.. Well, intellectualism is a world that sangh "office-bearers" are happy to take a back seat on...  If I remember it right, there is a scene in Savarkar movie where Golwalkar meets Savarkar and says "Many things I thought in my mind, you wrote it.." :-) ....  (FYI, I have my technical differences with Savarkar, like on "pitrubhu", but thats for another day). The sangh  however subtly did the logistical help for dissemination, even when some of these right wing intellectuals did not fully agree with it --- it even raised funds during some of their ill health 

 courtesy: suneesh @Ksuneesh86

And now, after a decade of all that, when I try to get more active on twitter, I realize - it was not just me... across India, across US,.. across the globe, there were the pro-right Indians like me.. struggled through the apparent solitude (well may be not solitude, but an apparent disinterest in the vast majority that we were trying to "activate") at one time..  But all that effort is now paying off .. Every day on twitter I keep finding more and more twitter handles, not hesitant to openly declare their "RW" inclinations... some like me may still remain semi-anonymous (partly may be the subconscious impact of the kind of circumstances that I grew up where pro-RW meant inviting sharp looks... and partly may be simply because I like being a "voice without a form"...) .... And the interesting part is that many of those twitter activists are young.. and many are ladies/girls ..  

And for this new generation, the means may be different, even the language may be slightly different -- but one can see, the core is the same..... same as of those handful yet powerful writers who inspired the "half-generation" after them ..  and these folks seem to correctly realize that if they are not on the "right-wing" they could end up being "left-out" or even being on the "wrong-wing" :-)

late-a vandaalum

Almost exactly 9 years ago, I had a post http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html?m=0 which is a nutshell said, if NDA had to have any chance in the 2009 general elections, it needed two south indian superstars - Chiranjeevi and Rajanikanth

Since then Chirajeevi floated his own party (PrajaRajyamParty), flopped and merged in Congress

Rajani waited, and finally today - the last day of 2017 - announces his plan to plunge into politics. Will he end up the Chiranjeevi way ? Well, time alone will tell, but here are some of my quick points

1) TN is desperately looking for a leader.. AIADMK is in shambles, Stalin has not been able to replicate his Father's persona (whether one agress his with Karunadhi's life and views or not...)

2) In his own ways, Rajani has been socially active for many years.. and have taken his stance on some issues at least... In other words, he may not be as much "only-air-no-substance" as Chiru

Comment: The late Sri Swami Dayananda Saraswati may have been the "link" and connecting factor

 So why did he wait so long ? Like it or not, he may have wanted the two "seniors" - Jaya and Karuna - to be off the scene.. and situation come to a stage where it is almost a TINA - there is no alternative .. that that, the TINA, is what, if anything, going to give him a chance to not end up the Chiru way


 

bend it like amit shah

As I type this, the election commission website shows 95 wins , 4 leads and a vote share of 49.1% for BJP in Gujarat state election. Himachal has it 34 + 10 and 48.7% respectively

Year 2017 ends with BJP ruling 14 states, its allies in 5, Congress in 4, left in 2, AIADMK, TRS, TMC, BJD and AAP in one each. In other words 19 vs 11 for NDA - impressive

Note: above pic found on twitter

Look at it from another angle, given that Karnataka could swing its way next year (more on that later), from Kerala, draw a line through "east coast" - that is where BJP is not in rule (I mean TN, Telengana, even AP, Odisha, WB, Meghalaya,Tripura), apart from Punjab/Delhi  . I remember Modi once referring to the need of taking Vikas to the eastern belt like BJP did to the west :-)

 So now, what happened in Gujarat ? Caste ? GST ? .. some are worried that the caste factor is again creeping in, RaGa's soft hindutva is working and so on. Well, just like in any election, there must have been a combination of complex issues here as well, but for me a few points stood out

1) Though there has been an impact in the Saurashtra-Kutch region , where most say the "Patels" (and I dont know the nuances) went against BJP, the over all vote-share of BJP has actually gone up from the 2012 assembly elections by 1.2% ( 47.9% in 2012 ; 49.1% as of now on ECI website)

 

So, even if there had been a "swing-away" enough to make BJP lose about 12 seats in that region, there seems to have been a "swing-towards" BJP too - is that the rest of the Hindu's consolidating to avoid quota being given to Patels ? .... but not good enough to give seat advantage because BJP had already "maximised" in those regions, like in south-gujarat ?

2) Congress too seems to have gained about 1.5% vote share -- that points to the fact that opposition was less fragmented compared to last time (in other words , "others" percentage has reduced). But the 0.3% difference in the amount of gain of vote share was good enough to take away 16 seats from BJP. Well, that is how these elections work, it is not the over all vote share that counts at the end of the day.  In other words, it is much more tougher to win an election - that is why Amit Shahs are special

What are the lessons learned ? first and foremost, BJP needs a charismatic local leader in Gujarat -- well, to some extend one must sympathize with those who are in the hot seat of Gujarat CM ... the person is taking over from Modi -- people have so much expectations.. remember, unlike MP or Chattisgarh which will be going to elections next year where Shivraj Chouhan and Raman Singh have already faced elections as CM candidates, Vijay Rupani was facing this election as an incumbent CM for the first time. But then now is the time - for Rupani or whoever is elected as Gujarat CM - to start again from the scratch, with the new baseline of state level expectations, and deliver well. I hope the BJP leaders do not hide behind a simple "Patels went against us" explanation and fall in to the same trap as Congress fell, of ignoring the development and local-leader factors

HP too has thrown up a surprise in "defeating" Dhumal - I must say the electorate is getting smarter and smarter .. they know how to distinguish "person" and "party" ; "state" and "central"

At the door steps of 2018 with elections due in 4 major states, many states in north-east .. it is getting clearer and clearer - "elections are to be fought and won ; no body gives them to you on a platter"

Brain says "simultaneous elections" - because that is what saves money, makes efficient state-center govt combinations.. but mind says - keep it like this .. As Ravi Shankar Prasad mentioned on TimesNow "Elections are the festivals of democracy".. and who doesn't like small small festivals every year and a big one in the fifth .. as opposed to all small ones and the big one combined into one 

the blacks and whites of life

For the past 3-4 weeks, I have been busy organizing a 1-day SpokenSanskrit workshop in Bangalore. These are some random points from the same

0) Normally Samskrita-Bharati does 10-day workshop --> 1.5-2hrs each day , totaling 15-20hrs. This sometimes becomes not-so-easy for the working class to attend. Assume either the attendee or the teacher has to commute 30mins for the workshop one-way.. for a 15hr workshop, he/she is ending up commuting a total of 10hrs (1hr each day, X 10 days). This becomes all the more important in a city like Bangalore where traffic is such a problem.. and then the issue of continuity - a person drops for 1-day, the next day he is a bit hesitant to go.. and so on... Many of SamskritaBharati's 10-day workshops, if starts with 2x people, is likely to reduce to x or even sometimes less than x, by the last day .. NOT because the classes aren't interesting , but mainly due to "logistics"..

1) While in US, some of us came up with the idea of weekend workshop - either 2 saturdays, or 2 sundays - each day about 9am to 6pm.. (about 12-14 hrs of class, but there is an efficiency factor because of the continuity that makes it equivalent to a 15hr class). I have been part of such successful workshops in US .. and then successfully experimented this in Chennai (with a good percentage of "IT crowd" ) about 6 -7 years back. Of course, we have found that here too, on the second day (i.e the second weekend) of the workshop, the numbers reduce.. but going by the commute math, for 15hrs of class, the attendee/teacher has to travel only 30mins X 4 times -- i.e 2hrs .. 20% of the 10-day one

2) For Bangalore however, we decided to experiment with a 1-day "jump-start" (as one of my friends later called it...) .. just one-day 9am to 6pm .. I booked an a/c hall, in the center of a well-known place, put up a blog(web-page) by Oct29 or so.. with a google form to register..  workshop was on Nov19, so I had 3-weeks to publicize.. 1st and 3rd week, I did quite a bit of online campaign, as well as "print-out" campaign (second week, I diverted my attention to another "cause", partly for the need of it, and partly as I have learned from experience that if I continuously campaigned for 3-weeks, I would get so attached, and "so-mad" if something disappointing happens.. so needed a "break" in between. ) Below is the "web-site" hits graph, which also reflects this "dip-in-second-week"

3) Workshop was free, but prior registration was requested, either online, or through phone.. Within the 3 weeks, there were approximately 2200 hits, (about 1500 of it from India.. out of that my guess is about 1100 may be from Bangalore). By the time we closed registration, we had 44 (i.e 4%) . I knew from experience that only 60% would show up -- and that is exactly what happened.. 28 people before lunch, and 22 till the end. Overall ( hall, publicity, some snacks/juice during the workshop, other incidentals), the expense was 8000-9000 rupees, which I took as a donation towards the cause . If this were a "500 rupee per registrant"event, it is likely that registrants/attendees would be more

4) As with most of these events, there were so many interesting "learning".. While exploring a place for venue, some told me "great idea, I will surely come.. ".. or "many of my friends said they will come if it is on a weekend"...  Alas, as the registration opened, none of them registered... the reason given by some was that it is about 20-30 mins drive from where they stay.. they wanted it at their door-step ... and the question from many who called me was, when are you organizing at my place.. Boy, for a whole day event, you can't commute even for 30min + 30mins ? Interesting.... But, as anything in life -- the black and white aspect -- there were some who commuted 1hr+ and came also..

5) And then there are some people, esp whom you frequently meet in office or in your apartment, who keeps telling you "I am really interested".. there are some to whom I have suggested 3 or 4 events before .. and every time when the actual event neared the answer was "sorry, today I am not available" -- same this time, in spite of it being in some of their door steps.. well, yet again, I can only say, let me remove you from my "interested" list. First time - may be inconvenience.. second time too may be.. third time and fourth time... well, if you are not showing up, it simply means it is either way  down in your priority.. or it was just a show-off ..(and interestingly, some of my friends are experts at preaching/criticizing..but not doing anything useful for others...  and some are even of the type who I feel like asking "is there anyone or any organization that you find anything positive about at all ? ") ...  and by mentally removing from my "interested" list, at least I will not feel guilty next time that "oh, I forgot to inform you about it".. And again, the white part.. there are some who you never thought might be interested, but eventually end up attending and some even sitting till the end

6)  By the way, don't ever assume that the event was a one-man show.. (my previous points may have made it appear so.. apologies).. As usual, from the SamskritaBharati volunteer/teacher side, and from unexpected quarters too, help came aplenty .. there were 3 teachers, at least 2 other volunteers who majorly helped on the day of the event, bunch of attendees, who came as early as 8.30am and offered help and many who helped with publicity.. and I am not too worried about the 96% who saw the website, but did not register.. the 40% who registered and did not show up.. "the news reached them"

Finally, let me end with a small incident..   about 4 or 5 days before the workshop, the registration number was at about 20 .. and with the 60% logic, that meant 12 would show up... for a few hours that day, I felt a bit let down... in spite of 2 weeks of publicity,  that is all what I got ? I forgot the basics of "nishkaamakarma"..and started considering "no more effort from my side, will leave it to destiny" and then something unexpected happened.. that very night, I got pinged on whatsapp from an unknown number.. and in samskritam, the lady said "you taught me samskritam, remember me ?" (the chat was in samskritam).. for a moment I thought it was a case of mistaken identity.. there are at least 2 samskritabharati teachers that I know in Bangalore with my name.. and I am not a teacher per se - I do not teach workshops... I only organize them.. I can run the "follow-up classes"  .. and I could not recognize her profile picture on whatsapp.. (well, I am bad with memory-of-faces in general) so I asked her "are you sure it was me?" .. she insisted it was me... and slowly came the details.., all in samskritam..  6-7 yrs back, in Chennai, she was an IITM student at that time.. I am not sure if she attended the weekend workshop or the 10-day workshop ... post that, I used to conduct follow-up classes at my house every weekend.. and she was part of that.. slowly I remembered her name.. and she typed "I am delighted you remember my name" (again, in samskritam).. I simply did not have words to tell her my feeling at that time -- all I can tell is "naShTOmOhaH .. smritirlabdhaH" ... that moment I decided, I am not worried about the registration numbers, I have 4-5 more days to go, let me try my best.. what if, it is the person who hears about this in the 11th hour, comes, attends, and keeps up the learning and who will, may be ping me yet another 6 years later (if I am still alive, that is), and tells me "you taught me samskritam", though I never did, and I was "nimittamaatram" 

the final lap of state elections 2017

State election fever is slowly starting to grip India again. So far this is the 2017 state election tally

 

 The ones left are HP and Gujarat. 

1) HP: Looks like RaGa has already given this up...- which is bad news for BJP because after all there is no better campaigner for the BJP than RaGa :-) .. but BJP likely to wrest it from Cong 

2) Gujarat: Interesting AAP seems to have given up and shifted focus (or rather trying their "testing waters" in MP now) ... and may be the Gujarat AAP strategy is part of the "gharvapsi" to Congress so that opposition(to BJP) votes do not split -see my Gurdaspur example https://twitter.com/drisyadrisya/status/919552766002970625 . And then all the chotta leaders who have popped (none of who, I have heard, talk any sense till date). It is likely that BJP will retain, though majority may reduce - but more importantly BJP Gujarat has to start worrying about grooming next-Gen state leaders a la Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Raman Singh who can retain power with not so much help from Modi 

Congress on the other hand is getting desperate - knowing Modi is invincible , they are attacking his two key aides in the name of their sons.. clearly, it is noise without substance generated before the election, and meant to subside after the elections. Will it cut ice with people of Gujarat ? less likely.. and it is likely that despite all dirty tricks, Congress will lose.. and yet again go into depression mode

I do not have too much expertise and ground level knowledge on these states, so my predictions above are more of gut-feeling. Now, I tend to "believe" in a alternate-year-is-good logic.. end-of 2013 to 2014 was good for BJP  - center as well as states like Maharashtra, Jharkhand, etc etc - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_elections_in_India#Legislative_Assembly_elections

2015 not so go good with Bihar and Delhi - though Bihar is back in NDA kitty 

2016 - well, was somewhat of a neutral/good year - Kerala/WB/TN are states with not much at stake for BJP... Whether 2017 would be good for BJP, mainly depended on UP .. and there was magic.. If BJP retains Gujarat, I will mark 2017 as a good year for BJP (with "small" losses in Punjab state elections and LokSabha bye-elections). But then 2018, may not be so good for BJP... Karnataka --> is not going to be easy (I will cover in future posts), so also the currently in kitty Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/MP (in my opinion, the toughest is listed first). But then, that is okay, some sort of a set-back is needed before vigorously getting back in 2019 - read my earlier posts http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2013/12/why-36-may-be-better-than-4.html and followed by http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2014/05/how-battle-was-won-and-why-war-still.html (part2)

If not for the Muslim League

This is a follow up post to the previous one . I was just curious to know if the Congress Party (INC) on its own won a majority in Kerala in the last 30-years. If my numbers are correct, its a big NO

And what is more startling, its % of seats out of the total has been reducing - both for the "UDF winning cycle" (shaded in green) and for the "UDF losing cycle". And in the latest election, Congress party doesn't even have a simple majority in UDF itself -allies have. CongressMuktKerala in offing ?

the Kerala voting pattern

One question I keep facing from some friends is why doesn't BJP do big in Kerala. With the Vengara by-election results, the same questions have been raised - fact is, in such a hugely Muslim dominated constituency, BJP never stood a chance - though decline in its votes warrants introspection

There are many reasons why BJP doesn't fully click in Kerala - let me give the demographic one now

The above is my "theory" or "hypothesis" as applicable for 2014/16 - because it is not based on any major statistical analysis or data - just out of my understanding of Kerala. Red is the left and allies (LDF) , green is Congress and allies(UDF)  and saffron BJP and its allies (NDA). The Hindu, Christian and Muslim numbers may not exactly match the numbers given at http://infoelections.com/infoelection/index.php/kerala/7433-caste-religion-wise-population-in-kerala.html but that one are 2011 numbers and I don't fully trust them. So I will go with my 52-28-20 numbers.

Now, what I have shown is an almost "solid base" - the minimum that these parties will get. Almost 18% are "swing and others". By swing I mean people who are not solid - it doesn't necessarily mean that the whole swing will be a state-wide phenomenon. Lot of local factors and even "personal" factors play in. In 2016 assembly elections LDF got ~6% of that "swing" (so it got ~43%), UDF got ~4% (so it got ~39%), NDA got about 5% (so it got ~15%) and the 3% went to others (total 3%)

Indeed, there are pockets like Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad , Kasargod where BJP many times comes a close second.. But then that is far from making a solid impact in Kerala. Unless something majorly changes, in the 2021 assembly elections too, BJP may not be part of "deciding who rules"

So then, what is its future ? Well, let us purely look at the Hindu votes - I have split it as 50% left, 20% UDF, 18% NDA and 16% swing. BJP's future will depend on how much they can "tap into"

1) The Hindu votes - and naturally, the biggest "sufferers" will be the left, which is why wherever BJP starts getting traction, the left starts violence. And from what I know, the pro-BJP votes from Hindus cuts across caste lines ( The RSS worker brutally murdered by left's goondas recently was from the SC Pulaya community as per https://scroll.in/article/845869/rss-workers-murder-throws-light-on-growing-competitive-politics-in-keralas-dalit-neighbourhoods indeed, no "self-proclaimed champions of Dalits" seemed to even bother or pretended that they did not know)

In my opinion, there is some reasons due to which the flow of cadres between left and BJP is more 'natural' - first both are cadre based parties, not-so-much family-based parties, both have core "sociological ideology" -- in fact, many of the Hindu-communists (not an oxymoron when it comes to Kerala) are religious too.. I keep saying, if you take a poll among the Sabarimala going Hindus, left party may win hands down ! The big differences between the left and BJP are in their views of Nationalism and minority appeasement -- for the latter, the left in Kerala is worse than Congress (whatever Hindu votes the left loses to BJP, it tries to make up by getting Muslim votes)

How about swinging Hindu-Congress votes to BJP.. well it depends.. Most of the Hindu-Congress voters are still there just because a) their forefathers were Congress b) they are anti-communists and just don't feel confident enough that BJP can beat the left c) no "ideology", so de facto Congress

So in my opinion, from that "solid" (as I mentioned thats the 2014/16 situation) 25 + 10, at best, may be by 2026, BJP may be able to get 10 more - that will still take it to their best of 15 + 10 = 25 (and that assuming it doesn't lose much from the 15% it got in 2016 ). Chances of that 25% itself appears bleak (unless a major game changing local leader or issue arises).. and even if it happens, the LDF + UDF with a 70-75% can prevent the BJP from getting significant seats (already happening locally)

2) non-Hindu votes:  Getting and non-trivial percentage of Muslim votes is out of question in the near future. This is one reason BJP tries to reach out to the predominantly Christian Kerala Congress. In my opinion that may not be a good idea in the long term. Kerala Congress - with umpteen factions - in general has lot of corruption issues and in some sense follows the basic ideology of Congress - that politics is to enhance ones own family and to eat away public money. What BJP may need to do is to slowly attract the section of the Christians who sees "logic", who are very Nationalistic, and many of whom respect and even practice some aspects of Hinduism.

Many christian families teach their children classical dance and music - a section of the Hindutva folks view this as inculturation as a means for more conversions.. May be some do it for this sake, but a good amount of Christians do it because they respect the Hindu traditions and culture.

Well, easy said than done, some might say.. and with all this too, at best you can get a "5" out of 20. And by the time you get that 25+5 = 30% , the Hindu population may have already come below 50% and the whole arithmetic may change. So yes, catch-22 it is, but there is no option with the BJP except to patiently keep trying -- unless a local messiah or issue is string enough for a "revolution"

20 years since Pinarayi Vijayan visited US and 3 other countries

Here is an interview from 1997 Aug 1 - https://www.destination-kerala.com/1997/08/01/kerala-evokes-widespread-interest-abroad-says-cm-nayanar/ of the then communist CM of Kerala

I am adding a screenshot here, just for the records and looking at some of the things there, just cannot stop laughing - self-declared US haters ("anti-capitalists") on a trip to Niagra Falls to study the possibility of  power generation from Athirappilly Falls in Kerala - and 20 years since, not only has that materialized, neither do I see any investment coming to Kerala from France and Italy. And these are the very folks criticizing Modi on his foreign tours . MCC did become a reality, but SNC Lavalin became controversial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_Kerala_hydroelectric_scandal