wishful thinking and thoughtful wishes

Note: This is also "Part2 of the bigger picture". See the GE2014 tag for all posts related to Elections 2014

Results if the two Nationwide opinion polls are out, see high level comparison at  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/BJP-poised-for-best-ever-tally-Narendra-Modi-set-to-be-PM-say-polls/articleshow/29322215.cms . I tend to believe more in the C-Voter poll at http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/modi-led-nda-all-set-to-topple-upa-india-today-poll/1/339408.html , so about 212 for current. NDA So where do things go from here ? Here are my imaginations

1) The best case scenario for BJP is if it can improve state by state on the predicted numbers. Let us take the C-voter 212 number itself..  UP @ 30 .. BJP cud get 10 more .. Bihar at 22 , let us say 5 more .. , MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgarh/Jharkand has predicted 20 seats for non-BJP, lets say 5 more out of that .. another 5 more from Karnataka/Gujarat .. and 5 more from delhi/maharashtra etc .. that is 30 more, making it 242 ! So every seat counts for BJP ...

2) The second possibility is more pre-poll alliances... Vaiko/Ramadoss alliance in TN may not convert into too many seats... More important ones would be with AIADMK ( ~35 seats at stake), with TDP and TRS (~25 seats) with BJD (~15 seats), with TMC ( ~25 seats). Numbers in bracket is the possible seats that can be won by such alliance, including the BJP vote share. This is a total of 100 seats, even if two of this work out, NDA is through

3) For each of the above cases, if there is no pre-poll alliance with BJP, the numbers for the respective regional parties, my guess would be along the lines of 30 , 20, 10, 20 .. adding up to 80 .. A post-poll alliance with two of these could also help NDA cross the target.. It does look like the regional parties may not lose much by not tying up with BJP before elections - may be 5 seats at best.. and each of these regional parties, deep down will not want BJP to grow in their states...  BJP on the other hand, by making pre-poll alliances, may not gain too much either of its own numbers ... At best a 20 from all these states combined (the alliance partners seats continues to be theirs, be it pre-poll or post-poll alliance) .. Going by pre-poll alliance, BJP actually oses the chance of standing on its own and getting a feel for how much votes it can get, riding on the NaMo factor - and build on it for long term

4) Okay, so the NDA about 210 .. all these possible NDA future allies at about 90 , UPA at 100 ... those add up to 400 .. where is the rest 140 going ? Per C-Voter 30 for left, 25 for BSP, 20 for SP, 15 for YSR, 10 for AAP, 5 for DMK, another 5 pro-UPA parties .. thats about 110 , more likely to support UPA ..That makes it 210 for UPA... a possible switch over of TRS and TMC could make it about 250..   The rest 30 are independents plus really small parties - these could support either NDA or UPA, so UPA-3 cannot still be ruled out or even a 'third-front'

5) But my best bet at this point is that the NDA as it stands now will get about 220-230 by the election time, unless all these polls are under estimating the Namo factor and BJP really sweeps MP/Guajarat etc and get 50 in UP . And there is quite a likelihood that some potential allies may object to Modi. If it indeed happens, I think that is a golden chance for BJP - Namo can sacrifice his PM claim, and focus on building the party in all those states (like TN, like Orissa, like WB, Kerala) where there will be a new found surge in BJP votes. Who should be the BJP PM candidate then...  could be Advani, Sushma, Chouhan.... somehow my choice is Parikkar - for now.. lets discuss this later

6) Finally, what the the possible X-factors from now on ? There is still 80-90 days and a lot can change.. AAP may continue to come up with new drama scripts, big controversies could happen,.. alliances may change.. etc etc.. There could be more 'attacks' on Modi - Congress' dirty games department is known to do that.. there could even be an attempt on his life.. these are things not fully in BJP's hand. At this point, they can only keep working.. trying to convert the 30 in UP to a 50.. the 13 in Karnataka to a 20 .. open its account in Kerala.. and so on

part1 of the bigger picture

Having watched the second part of the CNN-IBN CSDS opinion poll, a bunch of quick points

0) The poll predicted that UDF will retain more or less the same number of seats (16 or so out of 20) as in 2009 due to a positive Oommen Chandya factor. I personally disagree - even in 2009, opinion polls before the elections, if I remember has predicted 8 for the then ruling LDF and 12 for the UDF .. in the end it went 4 vs 16 .. the tide is usually quite against the ruling party.. and so I think it will be more like 12-8 or even 14-6 in favor of LDF

BJP ? Well, as always, 2 - 3 seats it stands a small chance, tough, but let us see. I would rather not count on it. Karnataka too, it is quite likely that by the poll, it may actually be a 16-20 for BJP, but for now let us count 8

The point is, I  do not fully believe in the opinion polls, yet it is an interesting one to analyze as time pass ! So..

1)  TN was predicted to have 16% vote for BJP .. quite obviously the NaMo factor. If .. IF .. it is actually true thats quite a thing... (part of it may be the effect of Namo rally in Trichy...) . Even more interesting to me is big gain in Orissa where NaMo hasn't yet even had a rally. But the unfortunate part is that this may fizzle out, when people see that there is no critical mass... It will be interesting to see how Namo addresses this in the days to come.. pre-poll alliances with BJD and AIADMK may actually help the alliance sweep these states, but NaMo may actually be thinking of long term growth for the party..  Can his popularity be converted into the long term growth ?

2) The Congress seems to be helped by the pan-India presence again.. In spite of such a terrible UPA-2, local factors may see it actually gain a few seats in some states.. though it is indeed losing heavily elsewhere. will it cross 100 ?

3) In the next 2-3 days, predictions for the rest of the states will be out as well.. it looks like current NDA may end up with 200 plus/minus 20 .. Once again, it may be hardly accurate, but I think the message for BJP will be to work harder. These days there is usually a series of opinion polls.. and they predict a trend. for example for 2013  delhi assembly poll, BJP was initially predicted at third, then second, and then first.. Indeed it did end up first, but did not get the majority that some polls predicted.  It might have been an attempt by some to make some pro-BJP folks feel that "oh looks like BJP will win without me voting..."  and there by causing some bit of complacency.  This time around , with Congress possibly going to ban opinion polls after the elections are declared, let us see how it goes

4) Finally, at least for now it appears that at the National level BJP volunteers need to stay clear of distractions like AAP and focus on its ground work.. It appears that there are non-volunteer BJP supporters to take care of folks like AAP.  If volunteers can indeed reach the 10 crore households it is targetting (which unlike what the media makes out is not at all "aping AAP", but has been the good old RSS type strategy - gruhasamparkaH ) , that will be a game changer ( even Modi's National Vision can go only thus far... door to door campaigning is key)

Time to switch gears ?

Its a frequent question now - Will AAP stop the BJP (NDA) from coming to power at the center ?

Let me first place forth what my views are on AAP and then move on to the BJP part

a) In an earlier post, I had called AAP anarchists, and time has only confirmed my doubts - the proof is many, be it the fact that AAP volunteers are taking law in their own hands in Delhi, being "empowered by Kejriwal", or be it the kind of people joining them these days, or be it by reading through some of their "policies and plans"

b) However, to add to that, it is also increasingly becoming clear that there are bigger forces behind the whole game of propping them up - it may be one or more of Congress (including the drama of trying to suppress AAP), the CIA (well, they always love instability in other countries, and add to that the Modi visa issue), the ISI ( quite likely they are pumping in whatever it takes to build up the public opinion against Modi- media, money or otherwise) and China ( given that many of AAPs views are closer to communist and maoist, my feeling is this is biggest player)

Now, what should the BJP reaction be ?  Unfortunately there has been a bit of disappointment that has creeped in among the volunteers - suddenly seeing a predicted AAP rise. Here are my point by point suggestions

1) First and foremost, do not get into the mode of "BJP is not doing anything and so we are going to lose". This is the trap laid out by AAP folks with the help of the media - to try to create an impression that they are on a huge upswing. It is to tap into the general Indian mentality that "people are crowding around there, so there must be something there and let me also join in".. Remember the saying - "garbage must be wonderful, for a million flies cannot be wrong". This is the same trick that Yogendra Yadav applied by predicting 47 seats for AAP.

2)  Consider this - it was never an easy task for Narendra Modi or BJP to begin with.  The more we go back to the "nothing to lose" mode, the better. Lets start by saying, BJP got 138 seats in 2009.can it build up from there ? There is no pan-India presence, there are many more opposing forces than supporting ones.. and yet, there is a chance. Isn't that itself wonderful ? Up to a few months back, I did not imagine that BJP would retain Chattisgarh, did not think MP would give it 2/3rds in a "third time" and a 3/4th in Rajasthan... 

3) So now what about the "urban areas" threat to BJP .. Let me start off by saying that this crowd, except for the BJP loyalists, have always been the kind which would vote against BJP (meaning any other party) at the drop of a hat. In 2009, many of them would have found Manmohan singh "okay to vote for" because "he is after all an honest man". It is more or less the same crowd that is vouching for AAP now - the small catch is that some percentage of them may have voted for Modi if AAP were not there. So in other words, you aren't losing any old votes , but you perhaps may lose some extra votes that you may have received. In one of my previous posts, I have mentioned that BJP lost in 2004 and 2009, more because of the loyalists' lack of interest than these extra votes

4) How many major urban areas really matter for BJP ? Let us take metros as example. Kolkota and Chennai were anyway not in the wish list of BJP . Mumbai - all 6 seats were won by Congress/NCP last time. Delhi - all 7 loksabha seats were won by Congress in 2009.  So what exact damaging are we talking about ? Well, apparently the BJP was expecting to "sweep back" these seats and now that seems tough with AAP - so this whole "AAP eating into BJP" is built around assumptions ! 2nd tier cities are not much different

So then am I saying , there is no AAP threat to BJP at all, and so ignore it. No, to the contrary, instead of being in a denial more  I think it is time for the BJP as a party and its sympathizers to accept AAP as a threat, however small it is and work towards countering it, in a balanced and less emotional way. The reason though that I went into points 1,2,3 above is to however try to give it a bigger picture. It is easier to get lost in the woods and miss the forest. So give AAP what is due - do not underplay, do not overplay either. And how exactly ? Well, it isn't easy, there is no quick solution, just like there is no quick solution to a perennially anti-BJP media. But a few suggestions

i)  Popularize BJPs efforts - like the india272 website, the Campus Ambassador Programme etc etc..

ii) Know more about the policies .. and educate around as well.  Do not assume that "xyz" knew about certain misdeeds or dangerous policies of AAP and is still supporting it - its quite likely that "xyz" did not know it.. Ask "xyz" if heshe knew it.. if the answer is a No, explain it... If the answer is Yes, ask why do you still support

iii)  I have seen that personal or small group conversations have a big effect (it may not be immediately visible, but it will help eventually). This is particularly so if you are considered a logical and honest person in your circle.

iv) Have statistics ready at your hand.. and logical ways to question some propaganda statistics used by AAP/media - for example, "opinion poll suggests 44% in 8 cities will vote for AAP".. How does the same poll predict "58% people want Modi as PM".. did they interview fools who think voting for AAP will help Modi become PM ?!

v) Those who can volunteer for on the ground (house-to-house or small meetings) campaigning - nothing like it

That much is for the "common man".  The BJP leadership too, I hope are planning their own strategies.. The middle level leadership need to connect to the crowd better.. and give clear leadership and directions to the foot soldier. They are very well capable of doing that - they just need to believe in themselves. And finally, what about Modi itself. I am in double minds if he should resign his CM post and do full fledged campaign - a thought that occurred to me a few days back (and interestingly echoed by MNS' Raj Thackerey today)- I think Modi is the best judge.

Why 3.6 may be better than a 4

As I type this, the 2013 assembly elections for the 4 Hindi heartland states are almost final.. and to sum it up, the final tally would be - a 3/4th+ majority for BJP in Rajasthan, a 2/3+ in MP, a 1/2+ (simple majority) in Chattisgarh, and a 32-33 out of 70 in Delhi. I call this a 3.6-0.4 for the BJP, the 0.4 being for the AAP. Here's my quick analysis


So, Is there a Modi wave ?

I surely think so for the following reasons, and I will start off with a rather "lighter one"

a)  For the past few months, Modi has been campaigning for a "Congress-mukt Bhaarat" .. Well, this election result has actually come pretty close to that in those 4 states ... 

b) Out of the 4 states, the place where BJP's chief ministerial candidate gave Modi the most "free-hand" was Rajasthan. Apparently Vasundhara even called upon the people to vote her to power so as to help Modi be the PM. There is no direct relation that a vote for BJP in a state election will help Modi for a National election, but indirectly I think it does speak volumes for Modi's popularity --> Congress decimated to ~10% seats

The continued denail by Media and other parties of this, is only going to help the BJP

c) So then, why did he not help get a simple majority in Delhi and a better performance in Chattisgarh ? Let me start off with Chattisgarh - of course, we cannot know what would have been the numbers had Modi not campaigned, or even if he were simply not declared the PM candidate before the election, so we don't know if Modi actually helped put the party just above the 45. Keep that apart, it is also quite likely that the remote areas of the state did not really have much of an impact. There were some media reports which said people in the remote parts of Chattisgarh (for example the tribals) hardly knew who Modi even was.

That I feel is not fully believable, and I believe the media is once again making the mistake of under estimating the tribals in terms of their connectivity to the Nation . We the media folks are the cultured folks and those in the forests are the uncultured folks mentality, where as the reality may quite well be that the tribals are much more patriotic and Hindu than the media folks themselves (bigger discussion for another day). What I believe has happened is a small impact (sympathy factor) of the naxal attack added to which might be some dirty games played by the Jogis (see my previous post) and natural anti-incumbency, may have prevented BJP from making huge gains

As for Delhi, what is interesting is the same media that predicted that the BJP will be third, before the Modi rally and Harshvardhan being made the CM candidate , don't even seem to remember all that.. hasn't Modi rather silently but surely helped changed the tide .. (I used "helped", since a huge chunk of the credit goes to the BJP worker and Dr Harshvardhan) .. as a case in point, see http://www.firstpost.com/politics/did-modi-silently-pull-the-strings-on-harsh-vardhans-cm-nomination-1190109.html  (this one is from Oct 23 )

So now, what will be with Delhi ? As I type this Dr Harshvardhan has declared on a TV channel that he is not interested in staking claim with 32 out of 70 . I think that is a good strategy,  I have reasons, not revealing though.. and interestigly, I wonder why nobody is talking about AAP's opinion poll that predicted a 47 of 70 for them !!

And what about the "impact" on the National politics - well, I think I can sum it up in one sentence - It gives hope for Modi, BJP and the Nation, and the 3.6 vs a 4.0 also helps the BJP to not go complacent but to work harder !





    

some random thoughts

This is part #4 of the series

With so many things "happening" every week, I thought I will write this in an FAQ format

1) So has or will Modi peak too early ?

I think he has started at the right time.. if anything it was may be a wee bit late. Assuming that Congress will play every trick in the book (and the ones which aren't even in the books) to counter, it may actually be useful to see how the attacks shape up too - earlier the better. And the momentum that will build up will be useful for and till May

2)  Isn't Modi's style of directly attacking the likes of ManMohan, Sonia, Rahul a deviation from the 'usual' BJP style of being much more 'decent' ?

In my opinion, this is the one single factor that has made Congress restless. 2004 elections saw BJP trying a 'positive campaign' - for one they were the one in power and hence naturally not in a position to talk about any ongoing Congress misrule. Secondly they perhaps thought that the mandate is with them, and hence playing it in a 'decent' way would good in the long term for India... I think the intentions were good, but it backfired. Or in other words, India wasn't ready for a "clean election campaign" (The clean part of course is subjective)

Though for slightly different reasons (including lack of clear leadership in BJP) 2009 too saw a not too aggressive BJP. As some one who had for the first a chance to vote during a general election in India, I remember the feeling - it was almost certainly useless as it was quite clear that it will be either the Congress or a third front (and as I have mentioned in previous posts, the fear of the third front helped the Congress.. and in 2014 it will help BJP)

And intentionally or not, the BJP leaders ended up giving an impression that they don't want to be aggressive enough to dethrone the Congress.. that they are content with being in power in a few states, and being the main opposition in Loksabha. Added to that was the reluctance to directly criticize ManMohan Singh (Note: Personally, I think after Nehru,  ManMohan has caused the biggest damage to India. He is no gentleman according to me)

Modi changed all that. And being not used to this, atleast for the last 10 years or so, Congress is very 'disturbed' !

3) What about the possibility of continued dirt throwing ?

Anyone reasonably familiar with all that has been happening for the last few years, and Congress' dirty tricks in general (by the way, hasn't it become much predominant with the Congress ever since the Italian lady took its control ? after all mafia running must be quite familiar to them) would naturally have expected all kinds of things being tried at Modi. Only time (upto May) can tell what will be thrown at him when, and what will be the impact

The immediate goal indeed would be to at least bring in a doubt in the voter's mind and to dampen the spirit of the volunteers. Interestingly though such "attacks" have a history of working in both ways - some times it has only increased some ones chances .. - the factors may be "Oh is that all you got against him" .. or the bad track record of the person or the party who does the mud throwing "Enemy of a thug is more likely to be righteous" logic..

A few interesting thoughts come to mind though - Congress must be repenting itself for having relentlessly attached Modi on the "riot" argument. If anything it helped him continue to grow in popularity and perhaps made him more and more thick skinned and aware of the games that Congress can play. It also earned him a bunch of 'converts' - once critical, but turned his "fans" when it turned out that most, if not all of the charges levelled against him were either fabricated (as in the case of Teesta training her witnesses) or just assertion by repetition ( like in the case of the "Modi did not call for help or the army immediately" argument, which was proven completely wrong)

If "illegal" accusation cannot work, then try "immoral".. but the common man so well trained by Congress  to "live with" illegal, it will be interesting to see how much even immoral would impact. Moreover, it will be interesting to imagine that there would be something 'immoral about Modi' that the Congress or some of his enemies would be in possession which they would not have used for a Gujarat election. And yet, anything is possible in India politics - wonder how many remember (late) Dilip Singh Judeo - the Prince, who rather chose to wash the feet of those who returned to Hinduism. He ended up such a big threat to Congress, the Church and the Christian Ajit Jogi, that they did a "sting" in Nov 2003.. and quoting from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilip_Singh_Judeo

Judeo led the BJP to victory in the 2003 Vidhan Sabha Elections and refrained from taking the Chair of Chief Minister of the state despite a wide campaign for the same from the Tribals of Chhatisgarh. In 2005, the Central Bureau of Investigation told the Indian Supreme Court that the bribe exposé was planned by Amit Jogi, the son of the then Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, Ajit Jogi, as a means to derive political mileage in favour of Ajit Jogi in upcoming elections.


The reader may draw his own imagination/conclusion

The long term impact

This is part #3 of the series and before I get into the main topic of this post,wanted to save these links

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/let-truth-be-known-about-modi
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/the-rise-and-rise-of-tomorrows-prime-minister-narendra-modi
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/who-is-afraid-of-narendra-modi

And so, what if after all this efforts, NaMo doesn't get the required numbers to be the PM ? In my opinion, he would have worked out a strategy as much as he would have worked out one if he were to be the PM.

Here are the three scenarios that I would think possible

Scenario 1: Modi may take the NDA (that goes to poll as a pre-poll alliance) to a number quite close to the required 272, and some potential allies (like Mamta Banerjee) may insist that they would support if it is some one else from BJP, and Modi may actually agree to it. Though one may find it hard to believe, I personally tend to think that this would be a scenario that Modi would be quite well prepared for.. in fact may be even wanting deep-within !! This gives him a perfect unselfish & for-the-party image that would make him grow even bigger in stature. Sonia Gandhi had done this in 2004 and though the situations are different, one cannot deny that she did become the darling at least of Congress workers. The impact of a sacrificing Modi on party workers and even others would be much big

It is also interesting to note that just for the sake of proving oneself to be "secular", some of these potential allies would say no to Modi and yes to other BJP leaders, even though in reality Modi may actually be more secular than others. Well, this is kind of similar to what I tend to believe in general - that there are many more staunch and agressive hindutvavadis outside the sangh parivar (though numbers may be small), but then the moment any of them speak up, they are labelled as sanghis or RSS wallahs and so on. In other words, RSS many times end up becoming the punching bag, and some times get "overrated" for capabilities which it actually lacks.Indeed, the real and hidden reason for such a behavior from some of the allies could be jealousy and fear - for such a growing tall leader

Scenario 2 : For whatever reason NDA including any potential new allies could not add up, and there is yet another coalition possible - Congress led or Congress outside support or even a third front one which is both non-Congress and non-BJP. In any of these scenarios, it would be an "ugly" alliance  - bad for India for a short term, but Modi would most likely use the time left for the fall of such a government to expand the BJP. 

A few years ago - may be it was after the 2007 election victory in Gujarat or so -some interviewer asked Modi about the prospect of being a National leader. He replied saying he would do what the party would ask him to.. and gave an example - if I am asked to go do ground work in a state where we are not yet strong, say for example Kerala, I would happily do that as a party worker. It clearly shows that at least subconsciously he was bothered that the party isn't strong in the South- mind you, this was when he was far from being a prospective National leader. Now that he is one, he must be experiencing the "pinch" of a lack of pan-India presence much more, and would surely be drawing up a strategy to change that. Exactly how he would do that- well, I can only say, will be interesting to see !

In the least, it is quite clear that Modi's very presence in the National scene has energized the party cadre and given the organizational strength and setup of a sangh-inspired party, it is quite likely that much of that would be converted into a energy needed to make the party grow

Scenario 3 : And finally what if he indeed becomes the PM ? Will it be an easy task, given that the pre-poll NDA may not have the numbers and newer allies are likely to be opportunistic and demanding .. Will he able to leave up to the expectations ?  This isn't an easy question, after all its a billion plus strong expectation ... But then, the way he has remained in power in Gujarat which ultimately is based on good performance overall,  it is quite likely that Modi may be able to put together a strategy by which he would remain the PM and the party would continue to grow, so much so that a general election 2019 may actually see the BJP get it much closer on its own

And this is worrying the opponent much more than anything else.. that the rise of Modi may not just mean a short dull period for them , but rather a wipe out atleast for 2 or 3 terms to come.. that explains the desperate attacks

Dhamma Sangha and the Buddha

As I get on with Part #2 (after #0 and #1) of my analysis, one apparent "contradiction" stands out. The RSS , which, like it or not is what has shaped Modi to a good extend of what he is, is quite against a personality cult. The Nation of Bhaarat indeed is raison d'être for the 'Sanghi' and what is "worshipped" (if at all) in the shakhas is the bhagawa dwaja and not any person . One might occasionally hear from a Sanghi that "Doctorji said so and so" or "Guruji did so and so" or "Thengadiji started so many organizations" etc, but it is indeed far from personality worship

So then how come the RSS "allowed" ( keep aside for now the RSS stand that we do not interfere in BJP decisions) brand Modi to flourish ? How about the kaaryakarta ? Well, the way I look it is using the Buddhist chant. For the BJP, the Sangha (organisational setup - the RSS and its sister groups) has traditionally been the strength.. as you keep hearing, it is a "cadre" based party. Oh yes, who else can pull off such half or one million strong rallies with such apparent "ease" in various parts of the country ? As for Dhamma, it has been ups and down.. It remains Nationalistic, but the core issues that the party stood for once - J & K, Ayodhya and UCC - aren't the driving factors. I would like to see those as along the Shruti/Smruthi separation in Hinduism.. Shruti remains eternal, and that would the BJP's commitment to "Nation First" and to a good extent "Political face of those who are not anti-Hindu or p-sec", and the Smruthi part - the issues of the day, keep changing.

But then, in a complex Nation like India, with such a multi-party system, and more so with the BJP failing to make a major impact in the South, it is quite evident that only the "Buddha" factor can get them closer to a critical mass. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the personality impact (Note: A hard core hindutva person may have been not satisfied with Vajpayee's 6 years, but hopefully UPA's 9-10 years have brought him back to the realization that something is better than nothing.. and indeed Modi's tenure must be giving a much better hope than Vajpayee's).

And thats the same "gap" that Modi is filling in now, but in quite a non-Vajpayee fashion. I do not want to go into an indepth analysis of Modi's abilities, but with time, he has been proving how much of a genius he is - at least in the current complex political environment, and given BJP's natural limitations, he is perhaps doing the best he can and exceeding many people's expectations already. In fact his strength also seems to be his unpredictability at least for his critics (which mostly comes from a false image of Modi, which they themselves built for convenience)   . Almost every day, or at least every big rally that he attends, he gives some new thought out. From firmly saying I am a born Hindu and Nationalist, to "Sauchalaya before Devaalaya" (Note: he did not say "No devaalaya", simply set the "priority right" so to say) to effectively bringing forth Sardar Patel to the discussion ..... the list is growing

Diversion1: Interestingly "greatbong" has been running a series on Modi as well.. and his third post is out too ! http://greatbong.net/2013/10/27/deconstructing-modi-part-3/
Diversion2: An interesting article, from last year, but happened to see now.. interestingly I share the same birth-day as Sardar Patel :)  http://www.niticentral.com/2012/10/31/there-is-a-sardar-patel-in-modi-16706.html 

And the way Modi is at it, by the time his critics ( media/Congress/p-secs/....) try to counter it, Modi would have moved on to the next .. And this is what is probably most irritating them and pushing them more towards "dirty tricks" - the latest trend seems to be to attribute to Modi (by way of twisting or sometimes completely fabricating) a statement that he did not make, and then calling him names !

Anyways , to sort of some it up, the need of the hour, even for RSS (as far its ambitions to see BJP as part of the next government) was a man who can withstand and move forward in such challenging circumstances. And the fact of the matter is that in how much the Sangh would have wanted the ideology to drive its cadres, the personality is very much needed and these factors are more often than not complementary to each other - as long as the personality is not selfish etc etc. In one of my future posts, I will perhaps dwell upon what long-term plan or atleast hope Modi may have in his mind - to put it in short, he is most likely using this also as a chance to re-energize BJP

Can the numbers add up ?

Going back to my post in 2008 http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html , the fundamental question is, will and if so why would the numbers be different this time for NDA ? Here is my take

2009 was a case were BJP (and perhaps NDA too) had many factors working against it - the projected PM candidate - Advani - was already getting into his old age and into Jinnah kind of controversies, there was still confusion on whether Modi was a contender, a fear that third front may become kingmaker (and a "last minute" swing towards UPA so that it can counter the third front in the wake of NDA being seen as having less possibility of getting closer to the 272, as compared to UPA).In 2004 too, there were factors working against the NDA - Vajpayee's health, and his "Hajpayee" image that made many of the core-sangh volunteers and supporters note vote and/or work towards BJP victory.. I tend to strongly believe that both in 2004 and the 2009, it is the lack of support from the pro-right volunteers and sympathizers that made the difference, and in 2009 it was worse than in 2004. In spite of this, in 2009 the NDA got the average of what I had predicted as best and worst- i.e close to 160

Things seem much more in order for the BJP in 2013 and the run up to 2014 - *assuming* that the Congress will not succeed in its dirty games that it often does in the run up to elections (that could be matter of another post).

I take some cues from this assessment - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/with-narendra-modi-in-front-bjp-targets-262-lok-sabha-seats/articleshow/23118494.cms  and add a few of my own "theories".  One is that a few regional parties like AIADMK, possibly even the BJD will form post-poll alliance with NDA. Second is that there will be consolidation in Modi's favour that could, at least in some cases make it go beyond the maximum that BJP has won in particular state ever. Third, in "volatile" states like AP, one could see a potential atleast few numbers in favor of the NDA.. and it will count. Given all that, here is my chart - some numbers are carry over from my 2009 assessment, and I have added back many more states. Remember, the "max" may appear an exaggeration, but then at the end, we will take the average as well. Also, at least in some cases, the "max" considers a potential post-poll ally, multiplied with a probability factor for the same

State...........      Seats.................Min..............Max

AP ..................  42 ...................  12 ...............  22 ( TDP factor, perhaps even TRS)
Assam ............. 14 ...................   2 ...............    8 ( allies, tho' less likely)
Bihar ............... 40.................... 16................  30 ( Indeed , the jealour Nitish factor)
Chattisgarh.......11.....................  4..................  8
Delhi.................7......................2................... 4
Goa...................2......................0.................. 2
Gurjarat............26....................16................. 22 (The Gujarati pride factor, indeed)
Haryana............10......................4 .................. 6 (allies again)
HP......................4......................2 .................. 4 (I guess this is a very pro-Modi state)
Jharkand............14..................... 6...................10
J & K .................6 .................... 0 ................   2 ( NC factor, but probability is less)
Karnataka..........28.................... 10................ 18
Kerala  ..............20 ....................  0 ................   2
MP.....................29.....................16 ................24
Maharashtra...... 48.....................20................ 36 ( possible MNS or NCP !)
Orissa.................21......................6.................14 (BJD factor)
Punjab................13......................6..................10
Rajasthan...........25.....................12..................18
Tamil Nadu ...... 39 .................... 0 ..................30 (AIADMK, I feel a high probability factor)
Uttaranchal....... .5........................2................. 4
UP.......................80....................20................ 50 (indeed, the big one)
West Bengal ....  42...................   2 ............... 12 (Trinamool , but less probable)
Others ...............17 ..................   2 ...............   4

Total.................543 ............... 160..............340

Two points worth mentioning - one, the numbers are indeed an approximation and after all a prediction. Two, my 2009 min and max predicted were 112 and 212 - had a range of only 100. This time around the range is 180 ... That is quite explainable due to two factors - how the image of Modi will finally swing the votes in a National scenario when he is declared as PM candidate, is highly unpredictable. And two, the allies , pre-poll or post-poll are too volatile this time around as well.

With all that said, the average is working out to be a 250 !!  There is a small catch in this calculation - take for example AIADMK .. The average number that went to form the 250, is a 15 . For a moment, keep TN out - the average turns out to be 235 . Now, AIADMK (assuming it will win 30, which is quite likely) could either join, or not join .. and in the later scenario, make it a 265 !! .. TMC is the other party that could have a huge impact..

In other words the current NDA (including TDP) is likely to get (based on law of averages) around a 220 and the rest will depend on post poll alliances.

Post script: This part is posted on 2014 May 14. Just wanted see where and how BJP and NDA lost in 2004

	BJP		Chng	Ally		Chng
	1999	2004		1999	2004
UP	29	10		0	1
Ukhnd	Na	3	-16	Na	0	1
Bihar	23	5		18	6
Jhknd	Na	1	-17	Na	0	-12
MP	29	25		0	0
Chtsgrh	Na	10	6	Na	0
Mah	13	13	0	15	12	-3
Guj	20	14	-6	0	0
Raj	16	21	5	0	0
Kar	7	18	11	3	0	-3
AP	7	0	-7	29	5	-24
TN	4	0	-4	22	0	-22
Assm	2	2	0	0	0
Odisha	9	7	-2	10	11	1
Del	7	1	-6	0	0
Har	5	1	-4	5	0	-5
Pun	1	3	2	10	8	-2
HP	3	1	-2	0	0
JK	2	0	-2	4	0	-4
Goa	2	1	-1	0	0
WB	2	0	-2	8	1	-7
Kerala	0	0		0	0
Others	1	2	1
	182	138	-44	124	44	-80

RejuveNation

As general elections 2008 was nearing, I had written a post on BJP's chances (or the lack there of) at http://drisyadrisya.blogspot.in/2008/12/rajnikanth-chiranjeevi-and-future-of.html . And now with GE 2014 nearing, it seems interesting to read what I had posted then. Let me start off by relating back to that post

* The backdrop almost remains the same - the fact is that BJP has its strong presence only in a few states unlike the Congress which has the de facto advantage since Indian independence of having a pan-India presence. The grand old party also has the natural advantage of not having much of an ideology, fitting quite well in to the "chalta hei" attitude which much of the India voters can themselves relate to, and finally a dynasty headed by people either white or mixed-white in a country where white-master brown-slave mentality unfortunately still remains !!

* What else has not changed is the fact that ultimately it is a number game.. and I believe the number of seats per state in that post hasn't changed since either. Now that was a pre-2009-election post.. what really happened in that election ?  NDA (including JDU) grabbed about 160 seats  (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009 ) of which BJP got about 116 .. Interestingly my "min" was 112 and "max" was 212 and NDA ended almost exactly the midpoint (average) of that.. pat myself for my prophecy :)

* Neither Chiranjeevi nor Rajanikanth helped NDA last time, in fact the former drowned himself into Congress ever since and the later remains elusive. I had also mentioned that "If its anywhere near the minimum, then one might simply see the end of BJP in a few years, unless may be "NaMo" takes the "center"stage" . BJP has survived and NaMo has indeed taken center stage. Though not the "traditional" bottom-up way that perhaps an Advani came up, I think in this case the top-down is fine because Modi after all is a "state leader" and not a 'stateless' leader as Arun Shourie put it , and secondly, Modi has been able to influence the "bottom" most ranks of the party.

So now, how do I want to view GE 2014 ? and what do I want to write about ? First and foremost, I feel that there has been a general rejuvenation among the pro-right in India - be it the BJP worker, or the "outside" supporter. I feel the same myself to a bit and hope to get back to blogging habit - again mostly for the "self satisfaction" :)

And so this post is #zero of a series that I hope to take up ! And so, what do I think this time ? Yes or No or maybe for NDA ?  Will GE2014 be a turning point in the history of India , from a long term perspective ? What should perhaps BJP be doing, state by state in order to "grab power" and "grow forever" ! My thoughts to follow !!!

The Divine Mathematics

The Divine Mathematics

The 125th birthday of the great Indian Mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujam passed by a few days back, rather quietly (except for a google doodle may be) - one might say it was not surprising in a Nation which has for long forgotten to look at its own strengths and contributions, and more recently even more lost in the chaos of politicians - of its own and of the Italian import kinds.

And what about the visual and the print media ? I haven't yet come across anything significant from them either. In fact,  perhaps today, this piece got an extensive space in daily mail UK and so far I haven't seen the Indian media pick it up except for a much shortened version in "Hindu Business Line"

Go through the two, and tell me, what major difference do you notice in the treatment of the subject ?  True to its 'tradition' which is has ever made its name a misnomer the "Hindu" Business Line has completed ignored the Hindu aspect. One might say that the UK mirror was meant for an audience not-so-familiar with Ramanujam, and the HBL being an Indian publication, did not want to repeat the well known ? .. well well well ... well known  ?

Quoting from the mirror "Ramanujan, a devout Hindu, thought these patterns were revealed to him by the goddess Namagiri" .   I just wanted to pause at that statement and give it some thought ... Could there have been any motive for Ramanujam to lie ? Not one that I can think off .. after all why would one give credit to someone else , even if it be a Goddess.. One potential argument that could stand logic (though not necessarily true unless proven to be so) is from Hardy - "Ramanujan's religiousness had been romanticised by Westerners and overstated by  Indian biographers" source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srinivasa_Ramanujan#Personality_and_spiritual_life

Yet, there could not have been a complete cooking up, as he lived within the last 100 years and its not a "Jesus lived but cannot be proved" kind of period. Even for those who do not want to believe (stress - not believing in it is also a a belief) in the Goddess theory, there is surely the astonishment of theories without proof (Or .. "Less Proof, More Truth" ) . Has there ever been a serious study of what really was behind these great revelations ? Will one ever be able to understand the "Divinity of Mathematics" and "Mathematics of the Divine" ?

pic courtesy: http://mesmath.blogspot.in/2012/07/hardy-ramanujan-number-1729-is-natural.html

Tailpiece: As a kid, inspired by Ramanujan's number, I used to look for more such interesting numbers.... (related old post of mine is here)...  I had those "findings" scribbled on bits of papers.. which in the stream of time disappeared, much like my habit of playing with numbers. Yet at around this time, I felt like simply  taking a look at the Gregorian date of Ramanujam's birth and death 

Birth - 22/12 ... 22 X 12  = 264 .. 264 squared is 69696 .. a nice looking number 

Death 26/4 .. 26X4 = 104 .. 104 squared is 10816 .. both 108 and 116 are sacred for Hindus.. no doubt, the Divine Mathematician reached closer to Mathematical Divinity that day !

NoMa4NaMo

No Match for Narendra Modi

Amidst 'progressive' media and 'let-India-be-damned-forever' folks trying their best to play it down, either by first arbitrarily speculating a 140+ and then trying to mock, or by presenting statistics in all distorted forms, the man stood out with a hat-trick victory ! 

And that was against various odds, including a potential tampered EVMs, which in a high probability have been programmed to change hands(read as "turn in favour of the hand") a fixed percentage of votes polled. And the cat is let out of the bag by none other than the Congees themselves, though with a twist hoping to build an argument in their favor

And then, once the p-media (substitute p with progressive with quotes, or psec or paid.. whichever you like) realizes that Narendra Modi simply doesn't care for these "dog barks as the elephant walks past magnanimously" , it shifts it attempts to the "Will you enter National politics" as though so far (and may be even henceforth) Gujarat was never and integral part of India, and as though being a permanent invitee (as a CM) in the BJP National Executive doesn't mean "National politics". None other than Modi himself could have put it better as he said "Ye bhi Bharat Mata ki Seva hi hein" when he spoke of development of Gujarat in his victory speech

But then, yes, there is the curious question of whether he will attempt to be a PM. And in that context, this small piece of mine, after aeons, tries to look at the future a bit. Nothing of an extensive analysis, just some rants

IMO, the first "hurdle" of Modi-4-PM would be he himself making up his mind ! One of the perpetual Modi critics, put it "Knowing him, I feel he will go for it only if he feels he can win it". At the surface, I tend to agree at least a certain bit with that, though perhaps thats just the conditioning of the mind, having never seen Modi as an "opposition leader". Even then, I feel there is some substance to the argument of "Will he not take the decision" ? Will he in some sense up go the Sardar Patel way - " the best PM that India never had" ?!

The second question is about the acceptability part. And I think I have a rather simplified (which may look one-sided) view of this. Due to three factors, if NaMo agrees, I think the BJP should declare him for PM.

1) TINA : There is No real Alternative within BJP who is as popular and strong.. and strength begets votes. Going by its conventional vote-base BJP(not NDA) cannot win more that ~160 seats on its own and they need at least 220.

2) The so called minority/progressive lot would anyway have not voted for BJP, even if some one else or no-one else were declared PM candidate. A few allies here and there may get more, but will not make much difference

3) A factor that I have felt purely out of my own interaction with people - there is a new sense of identity that NaMo has given to the kind of people are who are not pro-Congress/pro-thirdfronties , but at the same do not want to be openly associated with the BJP (for various reasons like corruption/inefficiency and the simple "party politics is a matter of shame" funda). I have found an increasing number of such people who are willing to admit "Modi will be good for India" though these people have hardly anything to do with BJP or the RSS ..

I simply hope that BJP listens to this pulse-of-the-Nation and makes an appropriate decision at the appropriate time. Before I leave, I have to mention a few words about AAP , the Aaam Aadmi Party. In kind of along the same lines of point #3, I must say that there is also a class of people, ashamed to associate themselves with any political party, but thinks that AAP is different and so started to vouch for them... problem is , they don't realize that AAP is just another political party.. and perhaps even a bunch of anarchists, best exemplified by my own experience at a rally of theirs while in Chennai (and while they were still IAC) - a bunch of youngsters on motorbikes, on the road, disrupting traffic to distribute their pamphlets and none of them wearing helmets. So break as many laws as convenient to you, to bring "new laws" and revolutions.....  grow up my dear AAPs ... literally !

Idukki dam(n) !

This was an old "promise" , but then I somehow did not feel like posting this for a while, thinking that it should not give unnecessary ideas to the terrorists !

But yesterday Surya News ran a story on the same, so here is mine too - the utter lack of security at Idukki dam - the biggest in Kerala, the destruction of which in monsoon season may cause one or two districts to go down under water and almost all of Kerala devoid of electricity.

My visit there was a year and a half ago (the same trip as was to Thekkady, a few weeks before the tragedy there). The fact that Surya news reported it now, tells me that all this while the situation has been so , just that noone talked about it - so here is my brief expeience.

As we were about to reach the dam site, the approach road split into two.. since there was apparently no proper sign boards, we took one of it.. and that was actually leading to the bottom of the dam, and not to the actual visitor area on top. And to our surprise and dissappointment, we did not find a single person - leave alone policemen - in that route leading to the bottom of the dam, to stop us. I have a couple of snaps posted above

Well, may be the dam is so strong that ordinary explosives won't do any damage... and may be since the politics of Kerala is quite a nourisher of the very groups who would think of such damaging acts, they would not dare to cut the branch they are sitting... don't know whether to call that my hope or my hopelessness !

"Saare Jahaan se accha Hindusthaan hamaara" Musical fountain

Last bit of the "Saare Jahaan se accha Hindusthaan hamaara" Musical fountain at Vrindavan Gardens, Mysore (use headset if sound feeble)