5-days and a few hours after this post, Karnataka will go for elections
Much water has flowed in Kaveri since my last blog post. From a situation of "Congress will be the biggest party with close to 100, but may need JDS help", it went to 90-90 (neck and neck) in an opinion poll a few weeks back and now to ~105 for BJP and ~75 for Congress ..
I feel that many things have gone right for BJP in the last few weeks.. BSY is not running a thump-chesting campaign, instead has been much more grounded. His not giving ticket to his son, has been a moral victory, especially as Siddhu has actually given to his son.. The fact that Siddhu, State cong and even central Cong are attacking "Reddy brothers" on corruption, and not BSY , perhaps is testimony that BSY has gotten over the allegations that were against him last time. And he has very tactfully let Amit Shah reply to the "Reddy Brothers are corrupt" allegation, who has simply in his style categorically stated "The two Reddy brothers who are contesting have no cases against them".. Yea, some times speaking just the enough words is an art .. and Shah indeed has mastered it
The Congress has made blunder after blunder -- first of all, campaigning started too early.. secondly, Siddhu started developing cold feet and decided to contest a second seat .. (which he in turn kept "secret" for many days). While in Chamundeswari BJP perhaps has decided to let JDS take its "badla" on Siddhu, by fielding SriRamulu in Badami, it made sure, if anything Siddhu will have to sweat it out there also, and so will get lesser time to focus on rest of the state. And finally, Rahul Gandhi, in his own style that no others can match, messed up what could have been a natural advantage to Congress (did I not see a news that state Cong leaders were begging him not to come ?)
But wait, the game is not over yet ... A heavy rain on May12, and its likely that lesser BJP voters may go out than lesser Cong voters .. So I tend to believe that a clear majority for BJP will depend on 72% voter turn out ... (I basically mean high voter turn out.. 72 is a play of numbers)
And here is my "72% reason" to vote.. As the Buddhist saying goes, Dhamma, Sangha and Buddha are important.. Dhamma is BJP's principles, for which I give it a 30 out of 40 .. Sangha is the "group of people from BJP from the state".. this includes people whom I personally know, and the existing MLAs, corporators etc.. I give them a 20 on 30 .. Buddha is a combination of Modi (Center), BSY (State), and the MLA candidate.. cos all three matter.. I give 15 on 20 (of course, Modi does well..).. and finally the "others" is about manifesto and how well BJP has "presented" itself etc and I give them a 7 out of 10 ... that adds up as 72% .... and this by the way, is my 272nd blog post !!
PS: I would vote only if the "threshold" of 70 is crossed.. It seems to in this case.. it did not, in BBMP elections and hence I did not vote !
Much water has flowed in Kaveri since my last blog post. From a situation of "Congress will be the biggest party with close to 100, but may need JDS help", it went to 90-90 (neck and neck) in an opinion poll a few weeks back and now to ~105 for BJP and ~75 for Congress ..
I feel that many things have gone right for BJP in the last few weeks.. BSY is not running a thump-chesting campaign, instead has been much more grounded. His not giving ticket to his son, has been a moral victory, especially as Siddhu has actually given to his son.. The fact that Siddhu, State cong and even central Cong are attacking "Reddy brothers" on corruption, and not BSY , perhaps is testimony that BSY has gotten over the allegations that were against him last time. And he has very tactfully let Amit Shah reply to the "Reddy Brothers are corrupt" allegation, who has simply in his style categorically stated "The two Reddy brothers who are contesting have no cases against them".. Yea, some times speaking just the enough words is an art .. and Shah indeed has mastered it
The Congress has made blunder after blunder -- first of all, campaigning started too early.. secondly, Siddhu started developing cold feet and decided to contest a second seat .. (which he in turn kept "secret" for many days). While in Chamundeswari BJP perhaps has decided to let JDS take its "badla" on Siddhu, by fielding SriRamulu in Badami, it made sure, if anything Siddhu will have to sweat it out there also, and so will get lesser time to focus on rest of the state. And finally, Rahul Gandhi, in his own style that no others can match, messed up what could have been a natural advantage to Congress (did I not see a news that state Cong leaders were begging him not to come ?)
But wait, the game is not over yet ... A heavy rain on May12, and its likely that lesser BJP voters may go out than lesser Cong voters .. So I tend to believe that a clear majority for BJP will depend on 72% voter turn out ... (I basically mean high voter turn out.. 72 is a play of numbers)
And here is my "72% reason" to vote.. As the Buddhist saying goes, Dhamma, Sangha and Buddha are important.. Dhamma is BJP's principles, for which I give it a 30 out of 40 .. Sangha is the "group of people from BJP from the state".. this includes people whom I personally know, and the existing MLAs, corporators etc.. I give them a 20 on 30 .. Buddha is a combination of Modi (Center), BSY (State), and the MLA candidate.. cos all three matter.. I give 15 on 20 (of course, Modi does well..).. and finally the "others" is about manifesto and how well BJP has "presented" itself etc and I give them a 7 out of 10 ... that adds up as 72% .... and this by the way, is my 272nd blog post !!
PS: I would vote only if the "threshold" of 70 is crossed.. It seems to in this case.. it did not, in BBMP elections and hence I did not vote !
